WAR REPORT

· The Sudanese army repelled the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia’s attempt to take the strategic Armoured Corps base in Khartoum, while the RSF continued shelling civilian areas in Omdurman, including a hospital, killing three and injuring 27.

· While the army made an advance in Al-Jazira, the RSF took the capital of West Kordofan state – Al-Fula.

· As the army rejects peace talks, military sources and experts predict army advances Khartoum and Al-Jazira states, with a victory on the Sudanese-Libyan-Chad border in North Darfur having the potential to severely weaken the militia across Sudan.

· Reports continue emerge of the RSF’s use of mercenaries from neighbouring countries.

· The RSF continues to be accused of genocide in Al-Fashir, resulting in a worsening humanitarian crisis, with calls for a UN-African Union civilian protection mission and pressure on the UAE for its support of the RSF.

1. Battle for Khartoum

· In the Battle for Khartoum, the army fended off the RSF in a key army base south of Khartoum city and its assistant commander-in-chief expressed confidence in advance to its General Command headquarters.

· In the city of Omdurman, however, the RSF continues to shell civilian sites, including Al-Naw Hospital where three were killed and 27 were injured.

Army victory in Khartoum

The army announced a decisive victory over RSF militants aiming to seize the Armoured Corps (silaah al-mudara’at) base south of Khartoum in Al-Shajara military district (Sudan Tribune, 17 June). A senior army source told Mada Masr (21 June) that that the RSF’s media footage of its attack highlighted issues including ammunition shortages, poor combat tactics and an insufficient number of RPG-armed soldiers needed for an assault on a military camp.

Since August 2023, the RSF has repeatedly failed in its efforts to capture the Armoured Corps, a critical asset for the Sudanese military. Their most recent attempt resulted in a strike by the SAF, routing the RSF and inflicting heavy casualties. The army has also gone on the offensive in the southern belt of Khartoum, where hostilities resumed after a two-month lull. Eyewitnesses reported drones and heavy artillery pounding RSF camps in the Sports City and surrounding areas (Sudan Tribune, 17 June). In a sign of confidence in the Battle for Khartoum, the army’s Assistant Commander-in-Chief Yassir al-Atta promised that the army will reach its General Command headquarters in due course (Mada Masr, 21 June).

Omdurman

Nonetheless, the RSF are continuing to target areas of northern Omdurman totally under army control, particularly the Karari locality. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) announced the death of three people, including a volunteer, and the injury of 27 others following intense artillery shelling by the RSF that struck al-Naw Hospital in Omdurman. The hospital has been continually targeted by the militia, which is continuing to shell civilian cites in nearby Al-Thawra neighbours which received those displaced from Khartoum and Bahri.

Among those killed in the RSF’s attack on another hospital was Sharaf Abu Al-Majd of the pro-democracy Ghadboun group, known for his active participation in anti-military coup protests, who was working as a volunteer at the hospital for months by the time of his killing (Sudan Tribune, 19 June).

2. Army gains in Al-Jazira

In Al-Jazira State in central Sudan, the military recaptured the town of Huda in the Managil locality. Since December 18, the RSF has maintained control over Al-Jazira’s capital, Wad Madani, and later extended its presence to various villages. Since April, however, the military has been amassing troops to retake the state along three axes, and it has received substantial reinforcements (Mada Masr, 21 June).

3. Growing army confidence

· With the army rejecting peace talks, military sources and experts express confidence that the army will outmanoeuvre the RSF and make advances in Khartoum and Al-Jazira states.

· An army and allied victory on the Sudanese-Libyan-Chad border has the potential to cut off key RSF supply routes and weaken the militia across multiple fronts.

Army rejects peace talks

In a rejection of peace talks, Yassir al-Atta, the Sudanese army’s Assistant Commander-in-Chief, said: “we will not postpone the war by concluding a truce and conducting negotiations, only for the war to return (again) after a year or two”. Al-Atta, who leads military operations in Khartoum, told his troops to ignore rumours about the resumption of negations, stressing: “true peace will be achieved through the defeat and surrender of the Janjaweed, the return of foreign Arabs to their countries of origin,” while emphasising the need to distinguish between the Darfur Arab tribes and the RSF (Sudan Tribune, 17 June).

After RSF militants failed to seize the Armoured Corps, there is reason to believe that the army is confident that it can defeat the militia militarily, with Al-Atta also promising that the army will reach its General Command HQ in Khartoum in due course.

Army confidence: Khartoum

A senior military officer told Mada Masr (21 June) that the army’s capabilities have improved since the start of the war and that it is poised to retake the military’s General Command HQ given the favourable outcomes of the military’s siege strategy around Khartoum in recent months. The strategy has reportedly significantly disrupted RSF supply operations and lowered its troops’ morale, especially after the defeats they suffered in al-Fasher and Darfur at large.

Army confidence: al-Jazira

In Al-Jazira state, military experts anticipate a simultaneous offensive across Al-Jazira’s fronts. A field source told Mada Masr (21 June) that the military believes that the advances will be easier than expected, explaining that the onset of the rain season is likely to aid operations, as the RSF is expected to regroup in more accessible areas near supply points, facilitating confrontation.

The importance of the North Darfur desert war

Furthermore, a victory for the Joint Forces – the army and allied armed movements - in the North Darfur desert war along the Sudanese-Libyan-Chadian border has the potential to cut off the RSF’s military supplies, deplete their resources and affect their capabilities on multiple fronts across Sudan (Mada Masr, 21 June).

4. RSF take Al-Fula, West Kordofan

The RSF announced the capture of al-Fula, the capital of West Kordofan state, after the Sudanese army withdrew from its defensive positions and headquarters

a significant number of residents fled to neighbouring areas. The RSF reportedly engaged in looting in several neighbourhoods, including Al-Salam, Al-Wahda, and Al-Daraja, prompting residents to flee towards the city centre or to neighbouring localities like Al-Odaiya and Al-Nuhud. A volunteer from the El Fula Emergency Room estimated that over 60% of the city’s population had fled shortly after the RSF’s arrival. Al-Fula had previously taken in displaced individuals from the city of Babanusa and was sheltering approximately 1,618 displaced people, including 324 children and 714 women (Sudan Tribune, 20 June).

A video released by RSF fighters after the capture of Al-Fula also showed an Ethiopian raising his country’s flag (Sudan Tribune, 21 June), which brings us onto the RSF’s use of foreign mercenaries.

5. RSF foreign mercenaries

Reports continue to emerge of the RSF’s use of foreign mercenaries from Sudan’s neighbours including the Ethiopia, South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR).

Ethiopian mercenaries

Sudanese authorities captured six Ethiopian women in the eastern state of Al-Gadarif bordering Ethiopia who are accused of serving as RSF snipers. Sources revealed to Sudan Tribune (21 June) that the women had been operating within the RSF for over a year, leveraging their specialized sniping expertise gained in Ethiopia

Their alleged involvement in operations against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and security agencies is supported by images of military engagements and weaponry found on their phones. A video released by RSF fighters after the capture of Al-Fula also showed an Ethiopian raising his country’s flag.

South Sudanese mercenaries

Sudan Tribune (21 June) also noted that South Sudanese nationals were caught fighting alongside the RSF in Khartoum, which was reported on in March 2024. We also covered the RSF’s use of South Sudanese mercenaries in last week’s report, citing Mada Masr (7 June).

Central African Republic mercenaries

A report published by UN experts revealed how the militia are using the Am Dafok area on the Sudan-CAR border "as a key logistical hub,” with the RSF recruiting from armed rebel groups in the CAR – particularly the Popular Front since as early as August 2023 – because the militia can "move between the two countries easily through a long-standing network” (AFP, 14 June).

6. North Darfur desert war

The war in Sudan has entered a new phase as it expands into the desert regions along the Sudanese-Libyan-Chadian border, in a “desert war” over supply routes crossing through the Zurug and Wadi Ambar areas (Mada Masr, 21 June). Zurug in particularly has seen fierce clashes erupt between the RSF and the Joint Forces (the army and allied armed movements) in an extension of the fighting in Al-Fashir. With a Joint Forces official accusing the militia of burning villages near the town, it is

strategic RSF base given that it is a vital supply hub for the militia from Libya (Sudan Tribune, 17 June).

The Sudan-Libya-Chad border region in North Darfur is critical for the RSF’s operations, as it means dominance over fuel smuggling routes from Libya. The militia has also transformed its dominance over these routes into revenue sources and used it to establish networks across central and western Africa. Thus, these battles are crucial as they aim to cut off the RSF’s military supplies, depleting their resources and affecting their capabilities on multiple fronts across Sudan. However, a military source warned that this may lead the militia to launch suicidal offensives to gain control of strategic areas for loot or political leverage, especially since it does not employ defensive tactics (Mada Masr, 21 June).

7. Al-Fashir

· The RSF is accused of genocide in Al-Fashir targeting Darfur’s non-Arab population, with the current atrocities described as worse than the Janjaweed’s ethnic slaughter of the early 2000s.

· The death toll in Al-Fashir continues to rise amid ongoing fighting between the RSF and the Joint Forces (the army and allied armed movements).

· The humanitarian situation continues to worsen, with an inability to access food, water or healthcare.

· Solutions for Al-Fashir centred around calls for a UN-African Union civilian protection mission and for international pressure on the UAE which is accused of supporting the RSF.

RSF genocide in Al-Fashir

The RSF militia continue to be accused of genocide in Al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur state which remains last remaining of the regions five capitals not to have fallen to the RSF. The New York Times (19 June) warn that if the city falls to the militia, “what had largely been a military clash could descend into ethnic slaughter like the violence Darfur endured in the early 2000s, when the Janjaweed, who are Arab, set upon ethnic Africans,” with the UN estimating that 300,000 were killed in the genocide. Highlight the RSF’s “systematic dehumanization” against non-Arabs in Darfur, Sudanese lawyer and legal advisor Mutasim Ali said the RSF is a “rebranded” Janjaweed with the same commanders, ethnic tribes and victim groups, albeit with sophisticated technology and weaponry due to “significant [UAE] support” (CNN, 14 June).

Nonetheless, the current RSF atrocities in Darfur are unprecedented in Sudan’s history, according to Omer Ismail, an acting foreign minister during the transitional period (2019-21) and now a researcher for the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab. The militia has been “systematically destroying civilian dwellings” in areas that have a significant population of the (non-Arab) Zaghawa tribe according to the lab. Centre for Information Resilience open-source investigator Mark Snoeck said over 50 settlements have burned repeatedly, suggesting “intent” and possible forced displacement (NBC, 16 June).

The militia’s genocidal ethnic cleansing campaign in Al-Fashir has been identified as a “scorched earth strategy”. Hager Ali, a researcher at the German think-tank GIGA Institute for Global and Area Studies, defined this as the destruction of important agricultural goods, razing villages, the systematic killing of non-Arab minorities, widespread sexual violence against women, with the aim of ensuring that "even when [the RSF] retreat, [their] enemy has absolutely nothing to gain” (DW, 19 June).

Rising death toll

The death toll continues to rise in Al-Fashir amid ongoing fighting between the RSF militia besieging the city, and the Sudanese army and allied groups defending North Darfur’s state capital. The Director General of the Ministry of Health in North Darfur, Ibrahim Abdallah Khater, said least 246 were killed, with 2,182 injured since the conflict erupted on 10 May 2024 (Sudan Tribune, 18 June).

The following day, another 18 were killed in a relentless wave of aerial and artillery bombardments targeting al-Fasher and Kutum in North Darfur state.

The Abu Shouk camp for displaced people in Al-Fashir bore the brunt of the RSF artillery fire, claiming the lives of 14 and leaving 25 injured, including women, children, and the elderly. In Kutum, northwest of al-Fasher, army airstrikes, resulted in the deaths of four civilians. Given that the militia launches attacks on Al-Fashir from Kutum, and that it hosts a medical facility for their wounded, the town is an important strategic location for the RSF (Sudan Tribune, 19 June).

Humanitarian situation in Al-Fashir

The humanitarian situation in Al-Fashir also continues to worsen. The RSF’s seizing of the main highway highway “has largely cut off food” to a Darfur region “already grappling with famine,” with a child dying of malnutrition every two hours at a nearby displacement camp. Medical care is also in short supply in Al-Fashir with hospitals forced to close. The road out is “filled with danger,” with temperatures rising to over 49 celsius, women reporting being sexually assaulted and people finding that food and medicine are in short supply when reaching their destinations (New York Times, 19 June).

Dr. Gillian Burkhardt, who worked with Medicins Sans Frontières (MSF) in Al-Fashir said there is no food or access to healthcare in the city, with her husband, MSF logistics team leader Paul Clarke, saying moving humanitarian supplies into the city is immensely difficult amid the lack of functioning airports meaning that trucks filled with ready-made meals from neighbouring Chad take a month to reach Al-Fashir (NBC, 16 June). Yet the humanitarian situation in Al-Fashir may still get worse, with an anonymous diplomat warned that hundreds of thousands will go without water in Al-Fashir as water stations will stop working if the RSF prevent fuel going in (AFP, 16 June).

8. Solutions for Al-Fashir

To prevent the RSF from completing its genocidal project in Al-Fashir, proposed solutions directed at the international community have revolved around the deployment of a civilian protection mission, and applying pressure on the UAE which is accused of supporting the RSF.

African Union-led civilian protection mechanism

Arguing that “major powers have largely invested in a sham peace process for 14 months that is going nowhere,” international human rights lawyer Yonah Diamond called for the international community, led by the African Union, to deploy a civilian protection mechanism in al-Fashir and to explicitly threaten the UAE with consequences should it fail to restrain the RSF and continue to supply it with heavy weaponry. Diamond added that the US and the UK “have leverage to exert pressure on their ally, the UAE, to end the RSF’s genocidal campaign today” (CNN, 14 June).

Similarly, Mohamed Osman, a researcher for Human Rights Watch’s (HRW) Africa division, called on the UN and AU leadership to examine all possible options and deploy a civilian protection mission to Al-Fashir (HRW, 19 June).

Osman’s colleague Laetitia Bader, HRW’s Deputy Africa Director, also called for the EU to actively voice support for calls for a civilian protection plan and work with the AU, the UN and others — notably the UK and the US - to achieve this. Bader also urged the EU to “act more decisively at the UN, encouraging the three African states on the UN Security Council to work toward deploying such a force” (Euronews, 20 June).

UN Security Council holding the UAE accountable

Osman urged the UN Security Council to act on findings of the UN Panel of Experts on Darfur, including on violations of the UN arms embargo by other countries, notably the UAE (HRW, 19 June).

Bader added that the EU should “press for the full enforcement of the existing UN arms embargo on Darfur, calling out countries such as the UAE violating it, and press for expanding it to all of Sudan” (Euronews, 20 June).

Support ICC investigation

Osman also called on governments to support the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s investigation into apparent war crimes and other atrocities in Darfur (HRW, 19 June).

Support humanitarian aid

Bader called on the EU to provide financial support and call for the protection of Sudanese local responders who are faced with providing civilians with support, food, and medical care (Euronews, 20 June).