HUMANITARIAN REPORT

This week’s humanitarian report covers the Sudan’s famine and refugee crises.
While no formal famine declaration has been made, reports suggest famine has reached parts of Sudan, particularly in RSF-controlled Darfur. We identified five factors contributing to this crisis: including the conduct of warring parties and the international community’s unfulfilled funding pledges. We also identified four proposed solutions, including those urging the international community to adopt innovative aid strategies.
Sudanese refugees fleeing conflict are facing further humanitarian crises in neighboring countries, including attacks in Ethiopia and unlawful deportations from Egypt, despite their perilous journeys and challenges seeking legal entry.

Famine

· In the absence of a formal famine declaration, there are reports that famine has already reached parts of Sudan, particularly territory held by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in Darfur, with projections that the situation will get worse.

· This report identified five key challenges and contributing factors to the famine: 1) the lack of income, 2) the RSF’s looting of aid and use of starvation as a weapon of war, 3) the army hindering aid access, 4) the water crisis across Sudan and 5) funding pledges that have not materialised.

· Nonetheless, four solutions have been aimed at the international community to mitigate the famine, ranging from applying pressure to take action to adopting innovative strategies to get aid to those who need it.

Bleak famine projections

About 70% of Sudan’s population could be “extremely hungry” by September, potentially leading to 2.5 to 4 million deaths, according to food security expert Timmo Gaasbeek (BBC, 15 June). “About 15% of the population – in Darfur and Kordofan, the hardest-hit regions, could die by the end of September,” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN (AFP, 15 June). Thus, USAID administrator Samantha Power said Sudan could be in worse shape than Somalia in 2011 when 250,000 people died after three consecutive seasons without enough rain, potentially ensuring that “Sudan would become the deadliest famine since Ethiopia in the early 1980s,” Power added (AFP, 15 June).

In the absence of a formal famine declaration, the New York Times (19 June) revealed that famine has already arrived in Darfur. Reuters’ (20 June) investigation identified 14 graveyards expanding fast in Darfur showing how people are dying through starvation and disease. Only satellite images from communities that have not seen fighting in the past six months were reviewed, in order to rule out the possibility that the dead were killed in fighting. Reuters further warn that the situation is about to get worse, as Sudan entered the lean season between harvests where food is less available, and rainy season prevents journeys through roads connecting to urban centres.

Challenge 1: lack of income

Alongside the lack of food in Sudan, the remaining food is “punishingly expensive,” with Amgad Farid of Fikra Studies think-tank highlighting the decline of food imports due to inflation (BBC, 15 June).As per Mohanad Elbalal, the the co-founder of Khartoum Aid Kitchen, a crowdfunded campaign to support community kitchens in Sudan, the lack of income is contributing factor to the unfolding famine (Slate, 19 June). Indeed, a key contributing factor to the lack of income is the inability to work due to a lack of protection from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia.

Challenge 2: the RSF

The RSF is considered a major contributing factor to food insecurity across Sudan, using starvation as a weapon of war in the territory it controls.

Darfur

Famine has already reached the Darfur region, where the RSF militia holds 4 out of 5 state capitals. In South Darfur, residents of Kalma camp for displaced persons are too scared to leave to find work amid the lack of protection from the RSF, with men fearing being killed and women fearing being raped (Reuters, 20 June).

Around Al-Fashir in North Darfur, the RSF’s seizing of the main highway “has largely cut off food” to a Darfur region “already grappling with famine,” with a child dying of malnutrition every two hours at a nearby displacement camp. The road out is “filled with danger,” as temperatures rise to over temperatures rising to over 49 celsius and women report being sexually assaulted (New York Times, 19 June). Meanwhile, in Niertiti camp in Central Darfur, no supplies are getting as the RSF plundered the harvest (Reuters, 20 June).

RSF looting

Various analysts, officials and humanitarian aid workers have attributed the famine to the RSF’s looting, including Elbalal in comments in Slate (19 June). Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation described the RSF as “essentially a looting machine” (BBC, 15 June), noting the militia’s tendency to “[strip] cities and countryside bare of all moveable resources” (Foreign Affairs, 17 June). Furthermore, USAID administrator Samantha Power said the RSF has been “systematically looting humanitarian warehouses, stealing food and livestock, destroying grain storage facilities and wells in the most vulnerable Sudanese communities” (AFP, 15 June).

RSF control of Sudan’s breadbasket – Al-Jazira state

In addition, the RSF’s military victories have also been identified as a contributing factor to the famine, with Amgad Faried citing the RSF’s seizing al-Jazira state “which has the biggest agricultural scheme in Sudan, and produced a lot of our daily needs” (BBC, 15 June). Nonetheless, the army have also been accused of blocking aid access.

Challenge 3: SAF accused of blocking aid access

The army has been accused of preventing aid access into RSF territory for political purposes. Power alleged the army is blocking aid from crossing the border with Chad into Darfur (AFP, 15 June). De Waal claimed that the army is “trying to starve areas under RSF control” (BBC, 15 June), with the aim of turning its fighters against its leader (Foreign Affairs, 17 June).

Jeffrey Feltman, the former US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, blamed the army for the absence of formal famine declaration despite pre-existing “famine-like conditions”. Feltman argued that the downside with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification that officially declares famine is that it requires the cooperation of the Sudanese army, who Feltman said do not want aid to flow into areas controlled by the RSF (Brookings, 20 June). However, De Waal suggests that starvation actually benefits the RSF, as the starving in Darfur are African ethnic groups that the RSF targets for ethnic cleansing (Foreign Affairs, 17 June).

Nonetheless, Khartoum Aid Kitchen co-founder Mohanad Elbalal said the army “doesn’t have an issue” with their kitchens, but the issue in RSF territory is that many community activists who would lead volunteer work are being detained or killed by the militia (Slate, 19 June).

Challenge 4: Water crisis

To worsen matters, a war crisis is enveloping Sudan from east to west, as reported by AFP (16 June). An anonymous diplomat warned that hundreds of thousands will go without water in Al-Fashir as water stations will stop working if the RSF prevent fuel going in. Meanwhile, in Khartoum, entire neighbourhoods have been without water since the war began after the Soba water station – which supplies water to much of the capital – going out of service. People are buying “untreated water off of animal-drawn carts, which they can hardly afford and exposes them to diseases”.

Similarly, in Port Sudan - which depends on one inadequate reservoir - measures to prevent contamination are hindered by displacement with hundreds of thousands fleeing to the city. Thus, cholera has become a “year-round” disease, the diplomat said, noting that the collapse of healthcare in Sudan means that “people are drinking dirty water, they are hungry and will get hungrier, which will kill many, many more”.

Challenge 5: Lack of funding

The lack of funding continues to serve as an obstacle for mitigating Sudan’s food and water crisis. The US announced another $315 million for hungry Sudanese (AFP, 15 June) but this is not considered enough. Justin Brady, head of the UN's humanitarian body (Ocha) in Sudan, said the international community has not provided the funds help those in need (BBC, 15 June).

As noted by Elbalal, the Paris donor conference in April pledged two billion euros for Sudan, but “there’s a difference between a pledge and actual donations arriving,” adding that only 15.8% of the $2.4 billion needed for Sudan’s humanitarian plan has been funded (Slate, 19 June).

Famine Solutions

Proposed solutions to mitigate the famine in Sudan have been directed towards the international community, including apply pressure on donors and states with influence over the warring parties, alongside innovative strategies to meet humanitarian demand.

Pressure international community to meet pledges

Mohanad Elbalal, the co-founder of Khartoum Aid Kitchen, suggested that pressure on the international community to meet the pledges to alleviate Sudan’s humanitarian crisis “would go a long way to actually helping Sudanese people” (Slate, 19 June).

UAE and Saudi leverage

Suggesting the UAE and Saudi Arabia have leverage over the warring parties in Sudan, Alex De Waal calls for the US and western allies to pressure the UAE and Saudi Arabia to lead on getting food aid to starving Sudanese. Yet. despite the Gulf states’ leverage, De Waal attributes their failure to “seriously engage” with the Sudan crisis to the Saudis not wanting the UAE to participate in their peace talks, and the UAE not wanting Saudis to get credit for a peace deal (Foreign Affairs, 17 June).

Recognising Sudan’s division

To overcome access limitations facing aid organisations, and with territory in Sudan divided between the army and RSF, ex-US Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman proposed recognising that Sudan is divided under at least two separate authorities, with agencies dividing which part of the country they work in (Brookings, 20 June).

Flexibility in aid grants

Feltman also called for flexibility in how assistance is delivered, noting that local emergency response rooms “are not people who can apply for aid grants” as “bureaucracies often are not fit to the purpose,” before suggesting “we need to take more risks in how we get assistance into the hands of those who are who are actually delivering” (Brookings, 20 June).

2. Refugees

· Sudanese refugees in neighbouring countries Libya, Ethiopia and Egypt are unable to escape humanitarian crises.

· In Ethiopia, refugees that left war-torn Sudan are under attack from a militia in north-western Ethiopia’s Awlala forest, with a woman being shot dead last week.

· Despite the perilous journeys they undertake to seek refuge, and the challenges they face seeking legal entry, Sudanese refugees are being unlawfully deported from Egypt as per Amnesty International, who also proposed a solution to avert further humanitarian suffering.

Sudanese refugees in Libya

Over 40,000 Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers have arrived in Libya following outbreak of conflict in Sudan, the United Nations said. A statement from the UN World Food Programme (WFP) also warned of an impending humanitarian disaster if aid is not urgently provided to those in need. The estimated total number of Sudanese refugees in Libya’s Kufra city is 45,000. Authorities, however, say it is difficult to know the exact number of these displaced people due to the continuing waves of people coming from war-torn Sudan (Sudan Tribune, 17 June).

Sudanese refugees in Ethiopa

Sudanese refugees in Ethiopia continue to face the risk of death and armed attacks by Fano militants targeting them inside the Awlala forest in the Amhara region of north-western Ethiopia, which houses around 6,000 Sudanese refugees.

A Sudanese woman was killed by the Fano militia in the Awlala camp, in an attack that while a group of Sudanese women were fetching water from a well near the camp. Eight other women were injured in the attack, which involved heavy gunfire. Around 1,700 cases of assault, looting, and theft against Sudanese refugees have been reported in the area. Multiple sources have confirmed to Sudan Tribune that Ethiopian authorities have lost control over the area, leaving it vulnerable to lawlessness and violence perpetrated by Fano militias (Sudan Tribune, 18 June).

Sudanese refugees in Egypt

Despite Sudanese taking life-risking journey to seek refuge in Egypt, they are being returned to danger in Sudan in deportations that Amnesty International says are unlawful. We explored the context behind the Egypt’s restrictions of Sudanese refugees, and the challenges that prevent Sudanese refugees from entering Egypt legally, concluding with a solution proposed by Amnesty International.

Sudanese refugees being returned to war-torn Sudan

According to Amnesty International, Egyptian authorities have used EU-funded security forces in a campaign of mass arrests and forcible deportations against refugees from the Sudan war (Guardian, 19 June). Around 500,000 Sudanese refugees are estimated to have fled to Egypt after the armed conflict erupted in Sudan in April 2023 (Amnesty, 19 June), about 24% of the total who left Sudan, according to the UN’s International Organisation for Migration (Reuters, 19 June).

Amnesty (19 June), published a report entitled, “Handcuffed like dangerous criminals”: Arbitrary detention and forced returns of Sudanese refugees in Egypt, which reveals how Sudanese refugees are rounded up and unlawfully deported to Sudan without due process or opportunity to claim asylum in flagrant violation of international law. The report’s findings were summarised in a Guardian (19 June) article, which included:

· Amnesty found that Egypt “forcibly returned an estimated 800 Sudanese detainees between January and March 2024, who were all denied the possibility to claim asylum”

· Amnesty said a campaign of mass arrests in Cairo and neighbouring Giza, where police have “conducted mass stops and identity checks targeting black individuals, spreading fear within the refugee community”.

· Amnesty documented 14 arrests of refugees from public hospitals in Aswan.

· People were held in makeshift detention facilities run by Egyptian border guards, a force that has received extensive EU funding.

· Refugees, including at least 11 children and their mothers, were taken to filthy warehouses or stables at military sites before being “forced into buses and vans and driven to the Sudanese border”.

The context of Egypt’s restrictions

A month after the war erupted in Sudan, the Egyptian government introduced a visa entry requirement for all Sudanese nationals (Amnesty, 19 June). According to Reuters (19 June), the mass arrival of Sudanese led to occasional tensions, with some Egyptians blaming Sudanese and other foreigners for pushing up rental prices, and Egyptian TV commentators citing the "burden" of millions of migrants at a time of high inflation and economic pressures. After Egypt's foreign currency shortage worsened last year many Africans arrested for not having valid papers were held in squalid conditions and asked to pay fees in dollars to avoid deportation, according to lawyers and witnesses.

With EU-funded security forces being used in a campaign of mass arrests and forcible deportations against Sudanese refugees (Guardian, 19 June), Reuters also note that “European states see Egypt as playing an important role in preventing mass migration across the Mediterranean” (Reuters, 19 June).

Challenges for Sudanese asylum seekers in Egypt

As noted by Amnesty (19 June), the Egyptian visa entry requirements leaves Sudanese fleeing with little choice but to escape through irregular border crossings. Radio Dabanga (18 June) noted the bureaucratic challenges to entering Egypt legally, seen as a “deliberate attempt to limit the influx of Sudanese refugees”:

· Obtaining security approval for entry into Egypt is financially burdensome for many Sudanese given the obligation to use EgyptAir to reach Egypt via Cairo Airport, which is unsuitable for those arriving by land.

· While registration with the UNHCR theoretically prevents deportation, long waiting periods, sometimes exceeding five months, complicate this.

· Another issue is the 960km distance between Aswan and Cairo, where the UNHCR headquarters are located, as Sudanese arriving through Aswan may be stopped and asked for entry visas before reaching Cairo.

Radio Dabanga have also continued reporting on the risks that Sudanese are enduring in their attempts to find refuge in Egypt, having last week covered 25 to 50 Sudanese dying on the road to Egypt from scorching heat (Radio Dabanga, 11 June). Indeed, Egyptian authorities deported hundreds back to Sudan who had reached Aswan facing harsh humanitarian conditions during the journey, with high temperatures and insufficient food and drink exacerbating their suffering, with many having chronic diseases (Radio Dabanga, 18 June).

Solution

Amnesty International (19 June) call for Egyptian authorities to immediately cease the mass arbitrary arrests and unlawful deportations of Sudanese refugees who had crossed the border into Egypt seeking refuge from the conflict in Sudan, suggesting that rounding up and deportation of Sudanese refugees was without due process or opportunity to claim asylum is a “flagrant violation of international law”.