SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Financial Times –  Sudan’s hopes of freedom must not be snuffed out

26/10/2021: Financial Times –  Sudan’s hopes of freedom must not be snuffed out

 

The Financial Times call for the international community to support Sudanese people while economically isolating the military, proposing innovative ways to financially support people while circumventing the government such as “funnelling small payments directly to people on their mobile phones, using the so-called M-Pesa technology pioneered in Kenya.”

 

The FT suggests that US’ removal of Sudan from its state sponsors of terrorism list was premature as it left no incentive for the military to stick to the transition, whereas international donors were “too slow” to fund an income-support programme for poor families affected by rising transport and food prices — “partly the result of IMF insistence on ending costly fuel subsidies,” which stoked popular discontent with the government and played into the generals’ hands.

 

Nonetheless, the FT suggest that the US suspension of Sudanese aid “is only likely to harm ordinary Sudanese for the sins of the military”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Bloomberg – Sudan Coup Demands More Than Mild Outrage From the U.S.

26/10/2021: Bloomberg – Sudan Coup Demands More Than Mild Outrage From the U.S., by Bobby Ghosh

 

Bloomberg columnist Bobby Ghosh argues that US President Joe Biden and Israel Prime Minister Naftali Bennett have the chance to end the crisis of democracy in Sudan by vocally supporting Sudanese democrats, making it clear to Sudan’s military leaders that violence against peaceful demonstrators will not be tolerated, and persuading Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to press for the restoration of the transitional government, under civilian leadership.

 

Ghosh suggests that Bennett can differentiate himself from his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, by showing Sudan that friendship with Israel “is about more than simply signing accords,” adding that Bennett can overcome widespread Arab scepticism about normalisation with Israel by siding with the Sudanese people.

 

Ghosh notes that Biden may threaten economic sanctions and exercise its veto on assistance from the IMF, although this may “risk penalising [Sudanese people] for al-Burhan’s coup”.

 

Finally, with the international community’s appetite for military coups argued to be wearing thin, and that international support is needed to prop up Sudan’s crippled economy, Kiwuwa notes that military’s to ability to overcome pressure may be decisive.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Conversation –  Sudan’s generals have torn up the transition playbook. But don’t count out the masses,

26/10/2021: Conversation –  Sudan’s generals have torn up the transition playbook. But don’t count out the masses, by David Kiwuwa

 

David Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies at the University of Nottingham, acknowledges Sudanese public frustrations with the civilian government, but calls for “compromise and principled political goodwill to realise a difficult transition,” even though it may entail setbacks.

 

Kiwuwa argues that the outcome of the military coup in Sudan hinges upon the following factors.

 

Firstly, the military’s ability to use force will dictate their capacity to change the terms of the transition. Secondly, whether the military can harness popular public support, which “appears to be a tall order”. Thirdly, the ability of the Sudanese mobilise against military authorities, which toppled previous military governments in 1964, 1985 and 2019.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: AFP – Sudan coup generals determined not to lose long-held power: analysts

26/10/2021: AFP – Sudan coup generals determined not to lose long-held power: analysts

 

AFP provide insights from political analysts on the military coup in Sudan.

 

The International Crisis Group’s Jonas Horner said the coup “epitomises” the army’s fears of civilian rule in the Sudan they have ruled for 52 out of 65 years, as they “maintain control over economic and political interests”, including their domination of lucrative companies.

 

Chatham House’s Ahmed Soliman said the military resisted reforms including professionalisation and civilian oversight of its institutions and business interests, with such critical transitional issues fuelling the political turmoil and “setting the stage for this hostile takeover”. Soliman projected the coup would lead to further instability as the military are only securing their own interests.

 

Rift Valley Institute’s Magdi el-Gizouli suggested that coup leader al-Burhan may talk with civilian leaders who remain free, like Foreign Minister Mariam al-Mahdi, as "he still needs a civilian face for the government”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Human Rights Watch – Sudan: Military Takeover Threatens Rights

26/10/2021: Human Rights Watch – Sudan: Military Takeover Threatens Rights

 

Human Rights Watch (HRW) call for Sudan’s international and regional partners to press Sudan’s military leaders to respect rights and urge them to ensure that they will not damage or reverse the progress on a reform agenda.

 

 

HRW call for the international community to: “make clear that small but important steps towards redress for past harm and establishing a more positive rights framework should not be lost. They should rigorously monitor the rights situation on the ground, pressing the military immediately to release all political detainees and to end arbitrary limits on key rights.”

 

 

Sudan’s military coup leaders were also called upon to and protect the rights of all Sudanese people, including the right to life and peaceful protest.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Spectator – Sudan: coup, what coup?

26/10/2021: Spectator – Sudan: coup, what coup? by Richard Walker

 

Arguing that “the price of bread always determines the fate of Sudanese leaders”, Richard Walker, a former Financial Times foreign affairs correspondent, argues that the fate of Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok - a “politically untried UN economist [and] child of the multilateral agency mindset” – was sealed by IMF reforms. 

 

Walker argues that the IMF pre-requisite for debt relief, “the pain of immediate government cuts, including an end to subsidies on essentials,” balances budgets at the expense of unbalancing the government, with the removal of fuel subsidies “the worst of bad options” for Sudan.

 

Walker suggests that international lenders should have “taken the process of normalisation and democratic gains at face value, calculated the ghastly cost of another failed state in north east Africa, and come to the necessary conclusion: continue to feed the Hamdok government with as much cash as it needed for as long as it took”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Independent –  ‘It’s us or them’: How Sudanese generals sacrificed civilian politicians to save their own necks

26/10/2021: Independent –  ‘It’s us or them’: How Sudanese generals sacrificed civilian politicians to save their own necks, by Ahmed Aboudouh

 

Ahmed Aboudouh’s feature piece examines fears that political reform would weaken the military’s grip on Sudan, thereby leading to the coup.

 

Veteran journalist Osman Mirghani said: “going down from the country’s leader to just a council member is traditionally not an option among the military generals in Sudan…[military leader] Al-Burhan understood that such a move would have meant that military will have to remove him from political life.”

 

Mirghani also argued it was “bizarre to see politicians demanding a military reform while they are disorganised and lacking legitimacy in the form of an elected parliament…their proposal would make the army effectively run by militias”.

 

Implementing the power-sharing agreement was a “recipe for unrest,” with Mirghani stating the construction of agreed-upon institutions “never saw the light of day, and we ended up in a country run by the day-to-day stunts of individuals at the helm of the transition”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: International Crisis Group –  Reversing Sudan’s Dangerous Coup B

26/10/2021: International Crisis Group –  Reversing Sudan’s Dangerous Coup

 

International Crisis Group (ICG) highlight risks posed to Sudan by the military coup.

 

Firstly, the Sudanese public will not easily accept a return to authoritarian rule, and attempts to put down protests by force are projected to culminate in a “prolonged and bitter standoff that would close the door to resolution of the crisis,” particularly as Sudan’s “sophisticated” protest movement comprising of a countrywide network of local committees able to organise effectively, even amid the internet shutdown.

 

Secondly, the coup may “sow further instability” in the peripheries, as the rebel groups that signed the Juba peace agreement may fight on the central government’s side against holdout groups.

 

Thirdly, the ICG project an economic downturn as the US has paused economic assistance and the EU is “likely to take similar measures”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: International Crisis Group –  Reversing Sudan’s Dangerous Coup A

26/10/2021: International Crisis Group –  Reversing Sudan’s Dangerous Coup

 

Led by the African Union (AU), the International Crisis Group (ICG) call for the international community to “pull out all the stops” to reverse the military coup.

 

The proposed AU-led mediation includes: imposing travel bans and asset seizures on coup leaders, brokering fresh dialogue between the military and civilian government leaders, demanding the immediate reinstatement of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the transitional charter, and conditioning discussions about military concessions on asset seizures and justice upon the reinstatement of civilian authorities and release of political prisoners.

 

The ICG also call for the US and EU to use the considerable leverage they have with Gulf capitals and Egypt to convince them to push the Sudanese military to change course, as the Arab states “stand to gain nothing from the instability in Sudan that appears likely to follow the military takeover, particularly if the military attempts to strong-arm protesters into silence.”

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Washington Post –  Sudan’s revolutionaries vow to resist military’s power grab

26/10/2021: Washington Post –  Sudan’s revolutionaries vow to resist military’s power grab, by Max Bearak

 

The Washington Post’s feature piece on the military coup quoted from analyst Magdi el-Gizouli of Rift Valley Institute.

 

“Al-Burhan might be able to pull this off with the support of…Egypt, the Saudis and the Emiratis…He is not a pariah like [former president Omar ] al-Bashir became, nor is he an Islamist. He will find a new, more pliant civilian face, he will maintain formalities, and the West will simply end up dealing with that person,” el-Gizouli said.

 

Now that al-Burhan has “definitively severed” his relationship with transitional partners, el-Gizouli noted that he may lean more heavily on Sudan’s rebel groups with whom he signed the Juba peace agreement, thereby convening “a viable set of alternatives to civilian leaders in the country’s peripheries where most of the resources that fuel Sudan’s economy come from”.

 

Nonetheless, el-Gizouli questioned how al-Burhan can govern cities full of people in “[economic] desperation”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: European Council on Foreign Relations – Sudan coup attempt: How Europe can defend Sudan’s transition to democracy

26/10/2021: European Council on Foreign Relations – Sudan coup attempt: How Europe can defend Sudan’s transition to democracy, by Theodore Murphy

 

ECFR Africa programme director Theodore Murphy calls for the European Union (EU) to support Sudan’s democratic transition by:

 

Clear signalling against the coup, as the military’s attempt to avoid the appearance of a coup indicates that the strength of international opposition will affect the military’s next steps and ultimately its preparedness to enter negotiations with the civilians, which is the only way out.

 

Murphy also suggests that that EU member states “need to urgently agree” to condition European support for Sudan on the military restoring civilian rule to the transition, thereby allowing the EU to make the strongest possible statement.

 

Finally, Murphy notes that “a decisive and unified European position will create traction with Egypt and the UAE, [who] see their interests as better served by a military-led government, [but] firm European action now can prevent history repeating itself and Europe’s investment in Sudan’s democracy going to waste.”

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Washington Institute – In Sudan, the Masks Come Off After a Military Coup

26/10/2021: Washington Institute – In Sudan, the Masks Come Off After a Military Coup, by Alberto Fernandez

 

Arguing that “the crisis for the Sudanese people is also a crisis for American diplomacy,” Alberto Fernandez, the former US chief of mission in Sudan, calls for the US to openly take a hard and clear line against the rule of Sudanese military strongmen (and their civilian enablers once their identity becomes known).

 

Fernandez warns that the US may face the “potential trap” of Sudan’s military leaders dangling the prospect of a “substitute civilian puppet government,” and thereby “giving the regime vital breathing space time and time again,” by making an “outrageous decision…and the international community would engage it in an effort to make the decision less bad,” culminating in a “focus on ‘process’ over actual results.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – US weigh more economic measures against Sudan after coup, in contact with Gulf countries

26/10/2021: Multiple sources – US weigh more economic measures against Sudan after coup, in contact with Gulf countries

 

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US President Joe Biden administration is exploring a range of economic tools to respond to the military takeover in Sudan.

 

Sullivan told a White House briefing that the US was in close contact with Gulf countries “to make sure that we’re closely coordinating and sending a clear message to the military in Sudan that they should ... cease any violence against innocent civilians, that they should release those who have been detained, and they should get back on a democratic path.”

 

“We will look at the full range of economic tools available to us, in coordination and consultation with other key countries, to make sure that we are trying to push the entire Sudanese political process back in a positive direction,” Sullivan added.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Guardian - ‘Patients hid under beds’: Sudan doctors refuse to hand injured protesters to soldiers

26/10/2021: Guardian - ‘Patients hid under beds’: Sudan doctors refuse to hand injured protesters to soldiers

 

The Guardian’s feature piece covers injured protesters following the military coup, with beds reported to be full of dozens of injured in Royal Care hospital, which is close to the military’s headquarters – a key protest site.

 

Wounded protesters were shot with live ammunition, badly beaten or run over by cars driven into the protesters, as hospital staff say some may never walk again.

 

A surgeon said that the military asked hospital staff to hand over the wounded, as soldiers from the army and Darfur’s armed movement fired around the hospital, and terrorising doctors with heavy weapons. “Patients had to hide under their beds and seats,” the surgeon said.

 

And among the 10 reported dead in the attacks, medical staff reported, were two doctors named as Rayan Ali and Mohamed Abdulhaleem.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Financial Times – Sudan general says military action was taken to avoid civil war

26/10/2021: Financial Times – Sudan general says military action was taken to avoid civil war, by Andres Schipani

 

The Financial Times’ feature piece on the military coup in Sudan quotes from an analysts and a government advisor.

 

A senior aide to Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok said the military “are likely to press on to have a fake election and declare themselves winners and continue to rule,” with the coup “in the making for a few weeks” as army leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan was expected to handover chairmanship of the Sovereign Council to a civilian.

 

With al-Burhan said to be in “damage limitation mode,” Jonas Horner of the International Crisis Group said that al-Burhan’s vow to hold elections in 2023 is an attempt to signal that the coup is only a “temporary measure and thus quiet opposition”.

 

Horner added that “Sudan’s generals unlikely to reverse [the coup] of their own volition” as “the military had much to fear” from a civilian becoming chair of the Sovereign Council.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Sudan coup: mass protests enter second day

26/10/2021: Multiple sources – Sudan coup: mass protests enter second day

 

Large protests entered their second day after Sudan witnessed a military coup.

 

Protestors chanted slogans such as 'returning to the past is not an option' and 'the people are stronger', as they have blocked streets and burned car tyres, especially in Khartoum and Omdurman.

 

Thousands of protestors stormed the perimeter of the General Command building that headquarters the Sudanese army before the military forces fired bullets and tear gas.

 

A large number of demonstrators also gathered in front of Parliament in Omdurman and protesters continued to cross the bridges from Bahri and Omdurman to Khartoum on foot to participate in the rally in front of the General Command in Khartoum.

 

Eyewitnesses told Radio Dabanga that a large number of trucks carrying military forces chased the demonstrators and tried to remove the barricades. Video footage showed military assaults on citizens in various neighbourhoods.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Independent - Seven protesters shot dead during Sudan military coup as world leaders urge army to pull back

26/10/2021: Independent - Seven protesters shot dead during Sudan military coup as world leaders urge army to pull back, by Bel Trew and Namita Singh

In response to protests against the military coup, the Independent report that heavily armed Sudanese army and paramilitary forces are restricting civilian movements and firing teargas at protesters. The internet and phone lines across Sudan were disrupted.

“We heard 300 have been arrested... We are worried that another massacre will happen. This is happening because the military, which runs a lot of the economy, does not want to hand over the control of the country to civilians.” said Dr Samia al-Nagar, a civil society activist.

A former senior Sudanese diplomat defended the military actions, saying that the decision was made because the civilian wing of government had “dragged their feet” on new elections. “Sudan is not the US or Britain: you cannot insult the army. The situation is threatening national security. The army has stepped in to stop the feud between different small political parties,” the former diplomat said.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Sudan’s al-Burhan says army ousted government to avoid civil war

26/10/2021: Multiple sources – Sudan’s al-Burhan says army ousted government to avoid civil war

Sudan’s armed forces chief, Lt. Gen. Abdulfattah al-Burhan, defended the military's seizure of power, saying he had ousted the government to avoid civil war.

 

Speaking at his first news conference since he announced the coup, al-Burhan said the army had no choice but to side-line politicians who were inciting against the armed forces.  “We only wanted to correct the course to a transition. We had promised the people of Sudan and the entire world. We will protect this transition," said al-Burhan, adding that a new government would be formed that would not contain any typical politicians.

 

The military appeared to have underestimated civilian opposition on the street, Jonas Horner of the International Crisis Group told Reuters.  "They haven't learned their lesson. As we saw post the revolution and post-Bashir, the streets were determined and civilians were willing to die for this" he said.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – US suspends $700 million in aid to Sudan after military coup

26/10/2021: Multiple sources – US suspends $700 million in aid to Sudan after military coup

 

The administration of US President Joe Biden suspended $700 million in financial assistance to Sudan following the military coup which US officials roundly condemned.

 

US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the full amount of the aid package had been put on “pause” pending a review of the developments in Khartoum. The suspended aid was direct financial support intended to help Sudan transition to a fully civilian government. Price said additional US aid to Sudan could also be at risk, along with the broader relationship.

 

"The civilian-led transitional government should be immediately restored. It represents the will of the Sudanese people, as evidenced by the significant peaceful demonstrations of support on October 21st" Price said, referring to the Marches of the Millions.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Foreign Policy – Sudanese General Blew Off Final U.S. Effort to Avert Power Grab

26/10/2021: Foreign Policy – Sudanese General Blew Off Final U.S. Effort to Avert Power Grab, by Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch

 

Foreign Policy’s coverage of the military coup provides quotes from Jeffrey Feltman, the US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, who met with Sudan’s military leaders – army commander-in-chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces commander-in-chief Himedti – hours before the coup.

 

The military leaders reportedly told Feltman that they wanted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to dissolve the cabinet and appoint new ministers, citing a litany of failings by Sudan’s civilian leadership.

 

Feltman reported warned them that US “assistance and normalised relations [shorthand for things like sanctions lifting] derived from forward momentum on the [democratic] transition. If the transition is interrupted or the constitutional documents violated, that would call into serious question our commitments”. 

 

According to USIP’s Joseph Tucker, military leadership may have believed there was an opening for the coup amid the factionalisation of civilian actors, lack of consensus within the military and armed movements getting close to the military.