SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Chatham House - Reversing the military coup in Sudan

11/11/2021: Chatham House - Reversing the military coup in Sudan, by Ahmed Soliman

 

Calling for “compromise and realism”, Ahmed Soliman, a Research Fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Programme, suggests that the pro-democracy movement addresses military leaders’ fears “through an amnesty programme, in return for concessions that reinforce the transition”.

 

Given that the military’s historic dominance of Sudan’s political scene and economy, Soliman adds that the pro-democracy forces “will have to accept a continued role for the military is unavoidable for some time yet”.

 

Outlining a path to strong civilian-led institutions, Soliman proposes the creation of institutional spaces to contain civilian-military disagreement. Soliman specifically proposes a joint civilian-military to discuss the military’s direct interests, including: unresolved issues of power-sharing, corruption, and security sector reform. Soliman also calls for an effective parliamentary security committee for civilians to address the military’s economic role.

 

However, Soliman warns that early elections will open the door for the old regime to return through sham elections.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Foreign Affairs – Countering Sudan’s Coup

11/11/2021: Foreign Affairs – Countering Sudan’s Coup, by Alex de Waal

 

Sudan observer Alex de Waal calls for the US to counter the military coup in Sudan by leveraging the rescheduling of Sudan’s $70 billion debt, which requires US cooperation given its controlling stake in the World Bank and IMF.

 

To prevent army chief al-Burhan sustaining his regime on gold sales, de Waal calls for the US to respond with financial sanctions, including invoking the Global Magnitsky Act which allows the US government to sanction foreign government officials implicated in human rights abuses anywhere in the world, and accelerating plans to uncover illicit flows of minerals that are ferried out of Sudan.

 

De Waal notes that al-Burhan may exploit Sudan’s “perilous” economy to invoke the likelihood of a food security crisis or collapse of the Juba Peace deal if aid is not forthcoming, but argues that his “back me or things may get worse” argument is “superficial”.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga – Darfur gunmen 'see coup as a license to resume attacks’

11/11/2021: Radio Dabanga – Darfur gunmen 'see coup as a license to resume attacks’

 

Radio Dabanga report that attacks on Darfuri villagers increased following the military coup of October 25, in particular in North Darfur where more than 2,000 families reportedly fled to Zamzam camp for the displaced.

 

Sudan researcher and analyst Eric Reeves said that the Arab militiamen in North Darfur “see the coup as a license to resume attacks on non-Arab farmers without fear their crimes will be communicated”. Reeves posted a report on the “widespread ethnic violence” in the region, saying that a new wave of displacement is taking place in Tawila.

 

“Around 2018 families have managed to reach Zamzam camp in the past 48 hours,” a “highly informed and completely reliable witness” said. Among them are “many women who suffered horrendous beatings-many with broken arms and elbows, many more who suffered blows to the heads [..]”.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Sudan’s army chief al-Burhan appoints new ruling council led by himself and excluding FFC

11/11/2021: Multiple sources – Sudan’s army chief al-Burhan appoints new ruling council led by himself and excluding FFC

 

Sudanese army chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan announced that the Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) will be reinstated under his chairmanship, with the same military members and rebel leaders as before, but with the five Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) appointees all replaced.

 

Non-FFC civilian Raja Nichola keeps her place on the TSC, joined by Abulgasim Bortom, Yousef Jad Karim, Abdelbagi al-Zubeir, and Salma Abdeljabbar. The announcement stipulates that the appointment of a representative from eastern Sudan is postponed until “the completion of the consultations”.

 

“This consolidates the [military’s] hold on power, and deflects attention from al-Burhan to a wider group that is nominally responsible for governing,” said Cameron Hudson of the Atlantic Council to the New York Times.

 

“American diplomatic pressure in recent weeks has focused on getting the military to reinstate Hamdok as prime minister…this moves us in the opposite direction,” Hudson added.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – FFC reject talks with coup leaders

11/11/2021: Multiple sources – FFC reject talks with coup leaders

 

The Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), Sudan’s main civilian political coalition, rejected any negotiation with the military.

 

The FFC affirmed its rejection of the coup and the resulting measures and stressed its adherence to the constitutional declaration governing the transitional period.

 

The FFC’s statement read: “We declare our total rejection of negotiations with the putschists, the inevitability of a return to the situation before October 25, 2021, and the return of the legitimate civilian government to carry out its duties under the leadership of the legitimate Prime Minister, Dr Abdullah Hamdok”.

 

The FFC’s position contrasts with a proposition recently made by the Sudanese Professional Association calling to adopt a new constitutional declaration ending any partnership with the military component.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters – Analysis: Sudan's military rulers draw on Bashir-era veterans to tighten grip

11/11/2021: Reuters – Analysis: Sudan's military rulers draw on Bashir-era veterans to tighten grip, by Khalid Abdelaziz and Nafisa Eltahir

“Lacking a political base of his own,” Reuters report that Sudanese military leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan is appointing veteran ex-officials of former president Omar al-Bashir’s regime, including: justice ministry undersecretary Huweda al-Kareem, foreign ministry undersecretary Ali Sadeq, and education ministry undersecretary Mahmoud al-Houri. Officials have also been replaced in senior positions in state banks, media, and regional governments.

 

Sudanese analyst Magdi el-Gizouli said al-Burhan is appointing military loyalists to jobs controlling vital infrastructure, banks, and trade, thereby “creating a de-facto situation”.

 

Reuters also note that TV channels controlled by Gulf Arab states are hosting an influx of "strategic analysts" defending the coup, some known supporters of al-Bashir's dissolved National Congress Party.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Atlantic Council - Experts react: Understanding the conflict in Tigray

11/11/2020: Atlantic Council - Experts react: Understanding the conflict in Tigray

 In analysis of the impact of Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict on Sudan, Cameron Hudson, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, argues that “the significant influx of weapons, fighters, and refugees to [East Sudan] may unleash substantial new tensions that Sudan’s transitional government has already been proven ill-equipped to handle.”

 Nonetheless, Hudson suggests that Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok “has some political capital to spend” in mediating the Tigray conflict.

 Citing Hamdok’s chairing of East Africa’s regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Hudson argues that Hamdok “is positioned to marshal the often-underutilized mediation and peace-making resources of IGAD.”

 Hudson also notes that Hamdok may utilise his participation in the ongoing negotiations over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance dam “as an important buffer …between Egypt and Ethiopia” to seek to find common ground on issues “striking at the heart of Ethiopia’s national security interests.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - EU announces €55m humanitarian aid to Sudan

11/11/19: Sudan Tribune - EU announces €55m humanitarian aid to Sudan

 Sudan Tribune reports that the European Commission has announced a €55 million aid package for Sudan, in support of vulnerable people caught in humanitarian crises.

 The funding will cover food and nutrition assistance for vulnerable households, emergency healthcare, support for refugees, internally displaced persons and their host communities, and education for children in crisis-hit areas.

 “As the living conditions of millions in Sudan are being strained by the multiple crises faced by the country, the EU is stepping up emergency assistance for those most in need,” said Christos Stylianides, Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management.

 Stylianides further welcomed commitments by Sudanese officials to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance, stressing that the “EU aid must reach all areas of Sudan, including conflict zones”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Hamdok calls for strategic partnership with the European Union

11/11/19: Multiple sources – Hamdok calls for strategic partnership with the European Union

 Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok called for a strategic partnership between Sudan and the European Union, as Sudan needs EU support ending its internal conflicts, solving the economic crisis and remove its designation as a state sponsor of terrorism.

 Hamdok was in Brussels for a meeting with EU foreign ministers and parliament, as they wanted to show their political support for the Sudanese people after the collapse of al-Bashir’s regime.

 In his speech to the EU parliament, Hamdok said that European enterprises can invest in the field of energy, mining and agriculture and also the capacity building of the civil institutions.

 EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told reporters that Sudan’s democratic transition "could represent not only success in itself, but also an inspiration for the rest of the region, for Africa, for the Arab world, and for our world in general".

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Jordan, UAE, Turkey, Sudan accused of violating sanctions on Libya - U.N. report

11/11/19: Reuters - Jordan, UAE, Turkey, Sudan accused of violating sanctions on Libya - U.N. report

 Reuters reports that the UN Security Council Libya sanctions committee accused Rapid Support Forces commander Himedti of violating U.N. sanctions by deploying 1,000 Sudanese troops to Libya.

 The UN panel of experts alleges that Sudan and Himedti sent troops to Libya in July to guard critical national infrastructure, so that the Libyan National Army led by commander Khalifa Haftar could focus their offensive on Tripoli against Libya’s Government of National Accord.