SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Fanack - Sudan: Upcoming Challenges and Confrontations

10/1/2023: Fanack - Sudan: Upcoming Challenges and Confrontations, by Ali Noureddine

Fanack identify its various opponents to the framework agreement within Sudan.

The Resistance Committees, “the largest of the popular gatherings opposed to military rule”, hold reservations about any negotiations with the putschists.

They are joined in opposition by the Sudanese Communist and Baath parties, alongside the Democratic Bloc faction of the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC-DB) – including the Justice and Equality and Movement and Sudan Liberation Movement - who “command widespread support” across Sudan’s peripheries.

 Fanack note that “the combined weight of [FFC-DB] affords them the ability to obstruct the implementation of the framework agreement especially since their positions align with [Egypt]...which has a considerable impact on the political balances in Sudan.

Fanack add that Egypt, a “regional power”, has been a “staunch supporter of the military coup [and] appears not particularly enthused about a new democratic course that would distance its allies in Sudan from power.”

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Political Violence At A Glance - Why the Military Promised to Withdraw from Power in Sudan

10/1/2023: Political Violence At A Glance - Why the Military Promised to Withdraw from Power in Sudan, by Hager Ali

Hager Ali, a doctoral researcher at the German Institute for Global Area Studies, argues that Sudan’s military is withdrawing from power due to its inability to institutionalise power following the 2021 military coup.

As the dissolution of the former ruling National Congress Party left the commander-in-chief of Sudan’s army Abdulfattah al-Burhan “without any prefabricated structures for effective governance”, Ali argues that “Sudan’s economic crisis requires a much faster consolidation of government to avert state collapse,” as the loss of foreign aid in response to the coup triggered worsening crises that aggravated citizen backlash and can turn army factions against al-Burhan.

However, Ali identifies “high conflict risks” if “al-Burhan’s institutionally weaker new regime” tries to generate state revenues to fund direct military rule by exploiting important natural resources located in Sudan’s peripheries. Ali warned that doing so would “fuel the same grievances that mobilised the Sudanese people against ex-president Omar al-Bashir”.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Egypt officially proposes initiative to settle Sudan’s crisis

10/1/2023: Sudan Tribune - Egypt officially proposes initiative to settle Sudan’s crisis

Sudan Tribune’s report that Egypt formally proposed an initiative for a “quick political settlement” features insights on Egypt’s political interests in supporting Sudan’s traditional sectarian political parties.

Amani Al-Taweel, an Egyptian expert on Sudan and Director of the African Program at the Center for Al-Ahram Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Jazeera channel that the Egyptian initiative aims to ensure that the divided Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) plays a role in Sudan’s post-transition government.

“Egypt’s calculations may be based on the need for preserving the DUP unity in anticipation of upcoming elections. Its unity and political representation is an important issue for Egypt which has a deep relationship with this party,” Al-Taweel said.

She further added that the Egyptian officials believe that the DUP and the National Umma Party (NUP) are the two political forces that would have significant political representation after the elections besides small political groups and Islamist forces.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - We agreed to address root causes of conflict in Sudan’s Two Areas: Hamdok

10/1/2020: Sudan Tribune - We agreed to address root causes of conflict in Sudan’s Two Areas: Hamdok  

Sudan Tribune reports on Hamdok’s historic visit to Kauda, an SPLM-N El Hilu stronghold, Hamdok said that he agreed with Abdelaziz El-Hilu that peace negotiations must address the root causes of the conflict in South Kordofan – highlighting issues such as marginalisation, identity, governance, how to administrate Sudan, and the constitution.

Hamdok also said that El-Hilu’s demands that Sudan adopts secularism are now under discussion during the peace talks in Juba, raising hopes that an understanding can be reached on “a project that unites all Sudanese.”

Hamdok added: "I think that there is a great deal of consensus and understanding that will allow pushing this file forward and to reach satisfying ends.”