SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Political Violence At A Glance - Why the Military Promised to Withdraw from Power in Sudan
Hager Ali, a doctoral researcher at the German Institute for Global Area Studies, argues that Sudan’s military is withdrawing from power due to its inability to institutionalise power following the 2021 military coup.
As the dissolution of the former ruling National Congress Party left the commander-in-chief of Sudan’s army Abdulfattah al-Burhan “without any prefabricated structures for effective governance”, Ali argues that “Sudan’s economic crisis requires a much faster consolidation of government to avert state collapse,” as the loss of foreign aid in response to the coup triggered worsening crises that aggravated citizen backlash and can turn army factions against al-Burhan.
However, Ali identifies “high conflict risks” if “al-Burhan’s institutionally weaker new regime” tries to generate state revenues to fund direct military rule by exploiting important natural resources located in Sudan’s peripheries. Ali warned that doing so would “fuel the same grievances that mobilised the Sudanese people against ex-president Omar al-Bashir”.