SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Economist – Sudan’s democratic transition is upended by a second coup in two years

25/10/2021: Economist – Sudan’s democratic transition is upended by a second coup in two years

 

The Economist analyse contributing factors to the military coup in Sudan, with the sequence of events leading to the coup mimicking the 1964 and 1985 democratic revolutions, whereby civilian divisions lay the ground for a coup.

 

Sudanese army leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia leader Himedti were “preparing” for the coup by: the Juba peace agreement with rebel groups that “brought more men with guns” into their alliance, alongside amassing greater economic power – with the army taking the business profits of the outlawed former ruling National Congress Party, and the RSF expanding its business interests. Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok’s efforts to rein them in and launch investigations into their roles in massacres “spelt trouble”.

 

However, the Economist note the risk of Sudan’s “potpourri of militia and security forces turning their guns on each-other”, citing al-Burhan and Himedti’s mutual distrust despite collaborating on the coup.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Council on Foreign Relations – Sudanese Military Leaders Seize Power, Dissolve Transitional Government

25/10/2021: Council on Foreign Relations – Sudanese Military Leaders Seize Power, Dissolve Transitional Government, by Michelle Gavin

 

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) call for the US to ensure “as much multilateral solidarity as possible in opposition to the military power-grab, and signalling to Egypt and Gulf powers that support for the coup plotters will have concrete costs.”

 

CFR attribute the military coup to the military’s “foreceful resistance” of revolutionary goals - reforming the security services and establishing real lines of accountability between the people and their leaders.

 

CFR argue that it is “no accident that the agreed-upon transfer of Sovereign Council leadership from military to civilian leadership… was averted by the coup, or that efforts to retrieve stolen assets and unwind illicit deals have been a flashpoint for tension”.

 

Thus, CFR conclude that Sudanese security officials “have consistently worked to manipulate transitional arrangements to avoid losing their privileged status, which entails access to political power, lucrative economic opportunities, and freedom from accountability”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Atlantic Council –  FAST THINKING: What’s behind the coup in Sudan?

25/10/2021: Atlantic Council –  FAST THINKING: What’s behind the coup in Sudan?

 

The Atlantic Council’s analysts examine the background to the military coup, with Africa Center director Rama Yade arguing that the military “seized the moment to accuse the government of ignoring the people’s needs,” amid the spiralling Sudanese economy.

 

Senior fellow Cameron Hudson suggested that civilian leaders “reached the limits of their ability to reform the political and economic space without the military giving an inch”, adding that economy recovery “was never going to be achieved without the military relinquishing its control over the major revenue-generating parts of the economy” from port operations to gold mining.

 

However, Yade blames the structures that came with Sudan’s International Monetary Fund loans, suggesting that western countries should have supported the government economically “rather than suffocating it with tough austerity measures that ended up plunging the population into despair and offering the military the ideal pretext they wanted to pull off this coup”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: BBC –  Sudan coup: A really simple guide

25/10/2021: BBC –  Sudan coup: A really simple guide

 

The BBC summarise the tensions that led to the military coup in Sudan, and projections of what may happen next.

 

“Sudan's political frailty has a long precedent,” with the “splintering of political parties and their inability to build consensus paving the way for the military to step in under the pretext of restoring order”.

 

With at least 80 political parties in Sudan, the BBC note “this same factionalism plagued the Sovereign Council, where internal divisions among both the military and civilian camps pushed political consensus yet further out of reach.”

 

However, the coup is not necessarily a "done deal", suggests Africa analyst Alex de Waal, given Sudan's "tremendous capacity for civic mobilisation". Nonetheless, memories of the June 3 2019 massacre “will be playing on the minds of people as the [protesters and security forces] confront each other.”

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Guardian –  Seeds of Sudan coup sown after fall of Omar al-Bashir,

25/10/2021: Guardian –  Seeds of Sudan coup sown after fall of Omar al-Bashir, by Peter Beaumont

 

Peter Beaumont’s analysis of the military coup in Sudan suggests that the democratic transition “only papered over” Sudan’s most pressing competitions for power – between political parties, between army, militias and local rebel groups, and between those who favoured a more Islamist vision for the state.

 

Beaumont argues that the issue is further complicated by how various parties use the political tensions to preserve or expand their power bases, citing the rejection of proposals to integrate the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces into the army by the veteran militia leader Himedti.

 

Among those warning of the possibility of widening violence in the mounting crisis is Theodore Murphy, the director of the Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who suggested the military acted for fear it was being weakened and that its move was backed by [Egypt and the UAE].

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: DW – Coups, cash and political complexity: What next for Sudan?

25/10/2021: DW – Coups, cash and political complexity: What next for Sudan?

 

DW’s feature piece on the military coup provides quotes from analysts.

 

Theodore Murphy of the European Council on Foreign Relations said the large pro-democracy demonstrations triggered military fears about being forced to face justice for past crimes.

 

Sussex University’s Dan Watson noted that the apparent failed 21 September coup attempt “was either manufacturing or used” by the military to stoke support, and the pro-military splinter faction of the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC-NA) could be used to replace the existing civilian government.

 

Outside of urban centres, Sudan expert Alex de Waal said that rural leaders who were previously part of al-Bashir's system of "mercenary patronage" see pro-democracy demonstrators' desire to change the system "as an assault on their constituencies”.

 

De Waal added that the military seeks to “move [technocratic prime minister] Hamdok into a position where he stays in office, but where they pull the strings”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Reuters – Factbox: What is happening in Sudan?

25/10/2021: Reuters – Factbox: What is happening in Sudan?

 

Reuters’ identify contributing factors to the military coup in Sudan, citing points of tensions between the military and civilian components of the government.

One point of tension is the pursuit of justice over allegations of war crimes by the military and its allies in the conflict in Darfur from 2003. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is seeking trials for Bashir and other Sudanese suspects. The civilian-majority cabinet has signed off on handing over suspects, but the Sovereign Council led by generals has not.

Another is an investigation into the killings of pro-democracy protesters on June 3, 2019, in which military forces are implicated. Activists and civilian groups have been angered by delays in making the investigation's findings public.

Civilians have also pushed for oversight and restructuring of the military, particularly through the integration of the powerful, paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which military leaders have resisted.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Seven killed, 140 hurt in protests against military coup in Sudan

25/10/2021: Multiple sources – Seven killed, 140 hurt in protests against military coup in Sudan

 

A Sudanese health ministry official said seven people were killed by gunfire and 140 injured as large numbers poured on to the streets of Khartoum and Omdurman demanding the return of civilian rule.

 

Demonstrators blocked streets with burning tires and bricks, and marched waving the Sudanese flag and chanting anti-coup slogans. The information ministry said soldiers “fired live bullets on protesters… outside the army headquarters”. Analysts said the generals are trying to maintain their historic control.

 

Magdi el-Gizouli of the Rift Valley Institute told AFP that resistance to the coup could be brutally repressed. “The military will have little option but to crush it by force,” he said.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Sudan's Hamdok moved to unknown location after refusing to support coup

25/10/2021: Reuters - Sudan's Hamdok moved to unknown location after refusing to support coup

Reuters report that Sudan's Prime Minster Abdalla Hamdok was moved to an unknown location after refusing to issue a statement in support of an ongoing military coup, the information ministry said.

Joint military forces holding Hamdok under house arrest were pressuring him to issue a supportive statement, the information ministry said.

It cited Hamdok calling on the Sudanese people to resist the coup attempt peacefully and "defend their revolution".

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune – Arrests of government and political leaders in Sudan

25/10/2021: Sudan Tribune – Arrests of government and political leaders in Sudan

Sudan Tribune report that the military component arrested senior government officials and leaders of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), amid reports about the expected suspension of the Constitutional Document.

Military forces arrested Mohamed al-Faki, a member of the Sovereign Council and head of the Empowerment Removal Committee, Khaled Omer, Minister of Cabinet Affairs, Yasir Arman, political advisor to the Prime Minister, Ibrahim al-Sheikh, Minister of Industry, in addition to Faisal Mohamed Saleh, a media advisor to the Prime Minister.

Among the political leaders are arrested: Wajdi Saleh, a member of the Empowerment Removal Committee, Omer al-Digeir, the head of the Sudanese Congress Party, Mohamed Nagi al-Asam, a leading member of the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), al-Sadiq Urwa, a leading member of the National Umma Party, Gaafar Hassan, the FFC spokesman, and Alrayeh Sanhouri, an FFC leading member.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Sudan military takes power in coup, arrests prime minister

25/10/2021: Multiple sources – Sudan military takes power in coup, arrests prime minister

 

Sudan’s military has seized power in a coup, arrested leading civilian politicians including the prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, and declared a state of emergency as thousands of protesters flooded the streets of Khartoum in opposition.

 

Lt. Gen Abdelfattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese army, justified the seizure of power and the dissolution of Sudan’s government by saying infighting between the military and civilian parties threatened the country’s stability. The military was meant to have passed leadership of the joint sovereign council to a civilian figure in the coming months.

 

Al-Burhan said an "independent and fair representative government of competencies” comprising of unaffiliated technocrats would assume power until one is elected in July 2023. Several articles of the constitution have been suspended and state governors removed, he said.

SUDAN POLITICAL ALERT: US Senate Foreign Relations Committee: 4 Senators Call on Trump to Appoint Ambassador to Sudan

25/10/19: US Senate Foreign Relations Committee: 4 Senators Call on Trump to Appoint Ambassador to Sudan

 Four US Senators have called on US President Donald Trump to support Sudan’s “fragile” democratic transition by nominating an ambassador to Sudan “as soon as possible.”

 In a letter to President Trump, the senators – Cory A. Booker, Timothy M. Kaine, Christopher Coons and Christopher Murphy – argued US support for the transition will be needed to mitigate against the threat of hardliners within Sudan’s security services, “and in particular the RSF,” spoiling Sudan’s democratic transition.

 Noting that restrictions on US assistance will require US Congressional approval, the senators added that sending an ambassador will “send an important signal” of US support for the new government.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - El Burhan: Sudan to continue cooperation with Russia

25/10/19: Radio Dabanga - El Burhan: Sudan to continue cooperation with Russia

 Radio Dabanga reports that Sudan is looking forward to continue cooperating with Russia economically and militarily, the Chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan, said.

 El Burhan, accompanied by the Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and a number of senior officials, travelled to Sochi in Russia earlier this week to attend the Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum.

 He also affirmed Sudan's aspiration to implement all military defence agreements signed between the two countries. The deals include part of the reform of the Sudanese military establishment and enhancement of the capabilities of the Sudan Armed Forces.

 Russia President Vladimir Putin promised El Burhan that his country will provide all necessary assistance and support to normalise the situation in Sudan.