SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: BBC – Sudan coup: Why the army is gambling with the future

27/10/2021: BBC – Sudan coup: Why the army is gambling with the future, by Alex de Waal

 

Africa analyst Alex de Waal argues that coup leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan has endangered Sudan's diplomatic, economic and security prospects.

 

Highlighting al-Burhan’s motivations for the coup, de Waal notes that the transfer of leadership of the ruling Sovereign Council to a civilian raised the prospect of al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces commander-in-chief Himedti being transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and held accountable for the June 3 2019 massacre in Khartoum.

 

Tackling corruption and implementing security sector reform also worried the military, as the Tamkeen committee seeks to challenge the military’s “still-increasing share of the national budget, [as] military-owned companies operate with tax exemptions and often allegedly corrupt contracting procedures.”

 

Finally, the coup threatens renewed conflict with holdout rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Movement of Abdelwahid al-Nur and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement of Abdelaziz al-Hilu, who had confidence in Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok in peace negotiations. 

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: US Institute of Peace –  Dissecting Sudan’s Coup

27/10/2021: US Institute of Peace –  Dissecting Sudan’s Coup, by Joseph Tucker and Manal Taha

 

USIP senior Horn of Africa expert Joseph Tucker and Sudan Programme Advisor Manal Taha analyse the consequences of the military coup on Sudan’s democratic development.

 

Tucker notes that the military may have thought the coup “would at least be tolerated” amid public frustration with political deadlock and impatience with the pace of economic recovery.

 

With military leader Lt. Gen. Abdulfattah al-Burhan claiming that the new government he will install will consist of politically unaffiliated “technocrats,” Taha notes that this could “widen the current divisions among civilian and political actors, pitting those who join against those deposed”.

 

Taha further notes that talk of planned elections at the end of the transition is also likely to be controversial because the coup disrupts the transition’s key benchmarks to be met to ensure that institutions, laws and political and civil liberties are in place for an inclusive and fair election.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Bloomberg –  How Sudan’s Coup Is Threatening Foreign Aid, Path to Democracy

27/10/2021: Bloomberg –  How Sudan’s Coup Is Threatening Foreign Aid, Path to Democracy, by Michael Cohen

 

Bloomberg analyse the potential foreign affairs consequences of the military coup in Sudan.

 

With Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s administration achieving progress in ending Sudan’s international isolation and gaining debt-relief,” the goodwill and financial assistance looks set to dissipate, with the U.S. putting a $700 million emergency aid package on hold just hours after the coup.”

 

The coup could also complicate talks aimed at resolving a standoff over the filling of a giant dam that Ethiopia is building on a tributary of the Nile River, and which threatens to interrupt the water supply downstream in Egypt and Sudan, along raising the potential for conflict with Ethiopia as “a military government in Sudan could also take a more proactive stance in opposing Ethiopia’s claims to land in the al-Fashqa area, which straddles a mutual border”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Washington Post –  The coup in Sudan represents a direct challenge for the U.S.

27/10/2021: Washington Post –  The coup in Sudan represents a direct challenge for the U.S.

 

Warning the “democratic bright spot” in Sudan may be “wiped from the map”, the Washington Post’s (WP) editorial board call for the US to sustain its “unequivocal international rejection of the coup — including by Khartoum’s erstwhile friends and sponsors in Saudi Arabia.”

 

The WP suggest the military coup represents a direct challenge to the US as it came two days after the US President Joe Biden’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, warned Sudanese military leaders that they were risking the aid and diplomatic legitimacy Sudan regained by embarking on democratic change.

 

Crediting the US for making good on Feltman’s warning by suspending $700 million in economic aid, the WP suggest that the coup may have triggered by the military fearing the prospect of what a trial of ousted president Omar al-Bashir at the International Criminal Court may reveal about their wider culpability in “genocide” in Darfur.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: AP – Sudan strongman is seen as an insider with powerful allies

27/10/2021: AP – Sudan strongman is seen as an insider with powerful allies, by Samy Magdy and Isabel Debre

 

AP provides insights on military coup leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan, who has powerful allies “including Gulf nations and feared [Rapid Support Forces paramilitary commander Himedti], and appears intent on keeping the military firmly in control.”

 

Al-Burhan’s Darfur record was “relatively clean” and he was a “rare non-Islamist among the top generals during [former dictator Omar] al-Bashir’s military-Islamist regime.”

 

On al-Burhan’s Egyptian and Gulf allies, the Atlantic Council’s Cameron Hudson suggested “a general preference for a strong military leader who is very transactional. That fits Gulf interests more than a democratic government”.  

 

Despite al-Burhan’s promises that the military will hand over power following the July 2023 elections, Suliman Baldo of the Sentry suggests that al-Burhan and Himedti

are both intent on remaining free from civilian oversight and are  “concerned about being held accountable for atrocity crimes committed under their command” — in Darfur and in the 2019 sit-in killings and rapes.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Bloomberg - Sudan Coup Leaders Shrug Off Global Pressure in Wave of Arrests

27/10/2021: Bloomberg - Sudan Coup Leaders Shrug Off Global Pressure in Wave of Arrests, by Mohammed Alamin and Simon Marks

 

Bloomberg report that Sudan’s army launched a new wave of arrests of opponents to the military coup, with over 40 activists, journalists and government officials arrested.

 

Mohammed Yousif, a member of the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), a pro-democracy group, said: “people who spoke about the army before on Facebook, Twitter or the television are targeted”.

 

Those arrested on Wednesday (27 October) included Health Minister Omer al-Najeeb and Water Minister Yasser Abbas, who were returning from Port Sudan, where they were negotiating an end to a trade blockade by opponents of the now-deposed civilian government that caused fuel and food shortages nationwide.

 

The Sudanese Journalists Network’s Khalid Ahmed reported at least five detained media workers, as “the radio and state television are now run by military officers and this is another big violation in itself”.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Further information on other detained civilian politicians

27/10/2021: Multiple sources – Further information on other detained civilian politicians

With at least ten civilian members of government already arrested, arrests of prominent critics of the military continued with the detention of Ismail al-Taj, a leader in the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) that played a key role in mobilising for the uprising.

 

Also detained was Siddig al-Sadiq al-Mahdi, a leader in the Umma Party and brother of Mariam al-Mahdi, the foreign minister, who revealed that the wife of Minister of Cabinet Affairs Khalid Omar said he was humiliated and mistreated during his arrest.

 

 Khalid al-Silaik, a former media adviser to the prime minister, was detained moments after he gave an interview to broadcaster Al Jazeera, according to his wife, Marwa Kamel.

 

In the interview, he criticised the military’s takeover, calling Hamdok’s government the legitimate administration of Sudan, and warning that the people will respond to al-Burhan in the coming days.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Sudan’s Hamdok moved from custody to house arrest

27/10/2021: Multiple sources – Sudan’s Hamdok moved from custody to house arrest

 

The US State Department confirmed that Sudanese Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok was released from custody is now under house arrest.

Hamdok was in a detention facility near the home of army commander-in-chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan at the command of the Sudanese army with his wife for more than 24 hours, after the military takeover.

Reports from Khartoum announced his escorted return to his residence where he is under house arrest and heavily armed forces have been deployed around his house.

The first confirmation came from Washington as the State Department issued a statement saying Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a telephone conversation with him after his return to his house.

“The Secretary welcomed the Prime Minister’s release from custody and reiterated his call on Sudanese military forces to release all civilian leaders in detention and to ensure their safety,” reads the statement.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: New York Times - Sudan’s Prime Minister Was Detained at Home of General Who Led Coup

27/10/2021: New York Times - Sudan’s Prime Minister Was Detained at Home of General Who Led Coup, by Abdi Latif Dahir and Simon Marks

The New York Times report on the military coup in Sudan.

“The coup in Sudan is unlikely to pass off smoothly. Memories of the corruption, repression and general misrule in the al-Bashir years are too fresh in the minds of many Sudanese for them to accede without resistance to a return to the old order.” said Murithi Mutiga of the International Crisis Group.

Three Western diplomats said there was a split inside the military between senior generals and officers who do not want to shoot at civilians and those who were in favour of the military coup, with protesters reporting setting up roadblocks to stop military forces pursuing them.

A campaign of civil disobedience was announced by the government’s Culture and Information Ministry, with doctors in parts of Sudan announcing their withdrawal from military hospitals.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Army leader Al-Burhan explains military takeover

27/10/2021: Multiple sources – Army leader Al-Burhan explains military takeover

Explaining the military takeover, but denying that it was a coup, Lt. Gen. Abdulfattah al-Burhan, the commander-in-chief of the Sudanese army, said it was a necessary measure for stability – accusing political factions of inciting against the Sudanese army and derailing the democratic transition, claiming that coup was necessary to avoid a “civil war”.

“The whole country was deadlocked due to political rivalries. The experience during the past two years has proven that the participation of political forces in the transitional period is flawed and stirs up strife,” al-Burhan said.

Despite stating that “not all ministers and politicians were arrested”, al-Burhan warned that some detained government officials and political leaders could face trial.

Al-Burhan vowed to scrap emergency laws after the necessary institutions are formed, said internet access would be gradually restored and elections held in July 2023.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Prime Minister Hamdok detained in coup leader al-Burhan’s home ‘for his own safety’

27/10/2021: Multiple sources – Sudan Prime Minister Hamdok detained in coup leader al-Burhan’s home ‘for his own safety’

Lt. Gen. Abdulfattah al-Burhan, the military leader who took power in a coup, said he is keeping the deposed Prime Minister, Abdallah Hamdok, at the general’s personal residence “for his own safety”, as concerns mount over the wellbeing of senior arrested officials.

Hamdok’s office, in a message on its official Facebook page, called for people to take to the streets and conduct acts of civil disobedience, as it voiced concern over his safety and that of the other missing ministers. Hamdok remains “the executive authority recognised by the Sudanese people and the world”, it said.

Al-Burhan denied that the army takeover amounted to a coup and said Hamdok was in good health and would be allowed to return to his own home later in the day.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – IMF says it is monitoring developments in Sudan

27/10/2021: Multiple sources – IMF says it is monitoring developments in Sudan

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it was following events in Sudan after a military coup that saw the prime minister deposed and major donors suspend aid

 

"It is premature to comment on the implications of recent events in Sudan, but we are monitoring the developments carefully," a spokeswoman for the Washington-based crisis lender told AFP.

 

The World Bank and IMF in June granted Sudan debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, cutting the nation's debt in half to about $28 billion, and the institutions have offered additional help if economic reforms continue. However, following the coup, the US, a key backer of the transition, strongly condemned the military's actions and suspended hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.

 

The EU threatened "serious consequences" for Sudan's rulers, including financial support.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - World Bank halts Sudan operations in blow to coup leaders, strike calls gain support

27/10/2021: Reuters - World Bank halts Sudan operations in blow to coup leaders, strike calls gain support, by Khalid Abdelaziz

Reuters report that  state oil company workers, doctors and pilots joined civilian groups opposing the military campaign through campaigns of civil disobedience.

 

Workers at state oil company Sudapet said they were joining the civil disobedience campaign to back the stalled democratic transition and pilots from the national carrier Sudan Airways have gone on strike, as have pilots from carriers Badr and Tarco Airlines.

 

Central Bank employees have also stopped work in a further setback for the functioning of the economy. Doctors belonging to the Unified Doctors' Office group of unions also said they were striking.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – World Bank suspends aid to Sudan after military takeover

27/10/2021: Multiple sources – World Bank suspends aid to Sudan after military takeover

 

The World Bank suspended plans to give Sudan $2 billion in aid in response to the military's seizure of power, with the US having already frozen $700m (£508m) in aid.

The sudden cut to aid is likely to have dire consequences for Sudan's battered economy, at a time when it was just starting to get back on its feet. The announcement that the bank was pausing support for Sudan’s economic crisis added to international condemnation of the power grab.

The World Bank has contributed some $3bn in aid to Sudan to support agriculture, transport, health care and education, among other things, according to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Centre for Peace and Justice Studies - The influx of Sudanese fighters into Libya could be a security threat to Sudan

27/10/2020: African Centre for Peace and Justice Studies - The influx of Sudanese fighters into Libya could be a security threat to Sudan

 With Sudanese mercenaries reportedly fighting in Libya on both sides of the conflict, ACPJS argue that peace cannot be established in Sudan as long as mercenaries in Libya are acquiring military weapons amid uncertainty over how they intend to use them when they return to Sudan.

 ACJPS calls on Sudanese authorities to launch a disarmament campaign and embark on strong rehabilitation process for people from conflict areas, alongside addressing unemployment to avoid people thinking the war is an option to make money.

 ACJPS further call on authorities to enact strong law against mercenaries and fully implement it in collaboration with the government of Libya.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Darfur armed groups agree to move towards reunification ahead of peace talks

27/10/19: Sudan Tribune - Darfur armed groups agree to move towards reunification ahead of peace talks

 Sudan Tribune reports that the Sudan Liberation Movement Transitional Council (SLM-TC) led by Hadi Idris and the Sudan Liberation Forces Alliance (SLFA) led by Tahir Hajer he agreed to foster coordination and collaboration between the two groups.

 The two groups were formerly part of the old Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM), which is now divided into several factions. Nowadays, they are part of the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF).

 Idris told Sudan Tribune that uniting the old SLM will contribute to reaching a just and lasting peace. He further disclosed the signing of a strategic alliance agreement with the Democratic Revolutionary Forces Front (DRFF) led by Salah Abu Surra, another former SLM figure.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Rebel leader El Hilu: ‘There are new people in Khartoum’

27/10/19: Radio Dabanga - Rebel leader El Hilu: ‘There are new people in Khartoum’

 Radio Dabanga reports that the leader of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North faction (SPLM-N El Hilu) in South Kordofan, Abdelaziz El Hilu, has voiced his optimism about the ruling Sovereign Council after it authorised a UN World Food Programme (WFP) visit to Kauda in Sudan’s Nuba Mountains.

 During a speech at the SPLM-N stronghold in Kauda, El Hilu said that by allowing the visit of the WFP’s Executive Director David Beasly to the area, the Sovereign Council was “sending a strong message in building trust between the armed movement and the government.”

 El Hilu stated that the permission given to the WFP “confirms that the old mentality of the ousted regime of Al Bashir has gone with him and there are new people in Khartoum.”

 El Hilu also praised the government’s announcement of a ceasefire as a strong message to build confidence between them and the rebels.