SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project - Riders on the Storm: Rebels, Soldiers, and Paramilitaries in Sudan’s Margins

27/8/2020: Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project - Riders on the Storm: Rebels, Soldiers, and Paramilitaries in Sudan’s Margins, by Dr. Dan Watson

 Dr. Dan Watson, a postdoctoral researcher with the University of Sussex and ACLED, warns that the declining relevance of the rebel groups may culminate their usage of the Juba peace process to become “part of a reactionary alliance, taking their place alongside paramilitary and security elites in Khartoum, and entrenching militarised rule in the peripheries.”

 Since 2016, Watson argues, violence in Sudan’s peripheries has evolved from recurrent clashes between rebel and state-aligned forces to urbanised and ethnicised clashes, joined by frequent attacks on IDPs and farmers enacted by militias linked to the semi-periphery of Arab-identifying groups who’s declining fortunes in the Sudanese political economy lead them to launch attacks against weaker non-Arab groups.

 Thus, rebel groups have been rendered “near irrelevant,” and their attempts to expand their presence via the peace process may “ultimately exacerbate” the violence.

[TRANSLATED] SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Al-Jazeera – Tribal violence in eastern Sudan: the roots of the conflict and the causes of its renewal

27/8/2020: Al-Jazeera – Tribal violence in eastern Sudan: the roots of the conflict and the causes of its renewal by Ahmed Fadl

Ahmed Fadl’s feature piece charts the history of Beni Amer-Nuba tensions in Port Sudan, and reasons for the rise.

 The first confrontation began in 1986 following political disagreements among parliamentary candidates over the legal status of alcohol. Then, security forces “imposed” control over the Beni Amer Dar al-Naim neighbourhood and the Nuba Filib neighbourhood, until it was dispersed a month after Omar al-Bashir’s fall.

 Local Dr. Asjad Abdelmoneim said that the murders are becoming more brutal, and that live bullets are being used by the tribes, in contrast to previous injuries caused by sticks. She added that the lack of police stations and hospitals limits the authorities’ ability to anticipate conflicts.

 Saleh Ahmed, a Bani Amer teacher, said security services handled friction in 2018, but the same agencies are now unable to access weapons and saboteurs.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - March supports civilian governor in Sudan’s Kassala

27/8/2020: Radio Dabanga - March supports civilian governor in Sudan’s Kassala

 Radio Dabanga report that thousands of Kassala residents ignored the curfew imposed by marching to demand the speedy arrival of Governor Saleh Ammar to the state, as two were killed, two were injured, and one went missing during tribal clashes in El Sawagi district in Kassala.

 The clashes were triggered by the recent appointment of Saleh Ammar, a member of the Beni Amer with a military background, was appointed civilian governor. The leaders of the Beja tribe categorically reject his appointment

 Arbab El Fadul, the acting governor of Kassala, said that “responding to the demands of the rejectionist group will open the door to more pressure and blackmail concerning important national issues, such as fighting corruption and removing the remnants of the old regime”.

 He emphasised that it is “impossible” to achieve consensus on any new governor at this stage, calling on the central government to urgently find a solution.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: BBC - Sudan's revolutionaries pin hopes on PM Abdalla Hamdok

27/8/19: BBC - Sudan's revolutionaries pin hopes on PM Abdalla Hamdok, by Alex de Waal

 Sudan expert Alex de Waal argues that new prime minister Hamdok will need “all of his skills, a lot of goodwill, and a dose of good luck,” to deliver the goals of the Sudanese revolution.

To rebuild Sudan’s economy, de Waal suggests that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will need to support a coordinated plan for restoring Sudan to the good graces of the IMF and World Bank, with the US needing to end Sudan’s terror-sponsor listing to regain Sudanese access to the dollar-based international financial system.

 Nonetheless, de Waal highlights fears that Himedti may block reforms that unravel his business empire. Imposing budget cuts on the generals is a “perilous assignment,” and holding them accountable for crimes “may upset the fragile power-sharing deal.”

 However, de Waal notes that Hamdok’s premiership means that rebel leaders have their best chance to secure peace deals.  

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: AP – Sudan urges UN to withdraw all peacekeepers by June 2020

27/8/19: AP – Sudan urges UN to withdraw all peacekeepers by June 2020, by Edith M. Lederer

 AP reports that Sudan’s UN Ambassador Omer Mohamed Siddig urged the UN Security Council to lift its suspension of troop withdrawals, ensure all peacekeepers leave Darfur by June 2020, and end restrictions on the Sudanese government’s movement of arms and troops in and out of Darfur.

 However, Smail Chergui, the African Union (AU) commissioner for peace and security, said that Darfur “remains volatile” amid clashes between government forces and rebels.

 Chergui also said clashes between farmers and herders are likely to intensify during the current farming season.

 Siddig and Chergui called on the international community to help Sudan’s government convince rebels to come to the peace table. Chergui said Sudan’s rebels “will remain spoilers” if continually excluded from the power-sharing process.

 For context, in late June the UN Security Council voted unanimously to halt the planned withdrawal of the joint UN-AU peacekeeping force from Darfur amid Sudan’s political crisis.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: AP – Sudanese face daunting challenges on path to democracy

27/8/19: AP – Sudanese face daunting challenges on path to democracy, by Samy Magdy

 Samy Magdy highlights the economic, diplomatic and security challenges facing Sudan’s democratic transition.

 Should economic rebuilding efforts hinge upon international lenders demanding greater transparency, conflict between between the civilian leadership and Sudanese security forces, “[who] have profited off chaos,” may arise.

 Rampant corruption and instability puts off international investors in Sudan, with the Rapid Support Forces militia a “special concern.” Cutting military spending would be “quite challenging” due to security agencies’ “addiction to massive theft and massive rights violations in the protection of their privileges,” said Suliman Baldo, a senior researcher with the Enough Project.

 Although Sudanese rebels accept that this is their best opportunity for peace deals, it may prove elusive due to the Sudan Revolutionary Front’s rejection of the power-sharing deal.

 Rasha Awad, editor of the online Sudanese newspaper Altaghyeer noted that the military may protect their interests by preventing transitional justice for dead protesters.