SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Middle East Institute –How has the Ukraine war affected Russia's ties with Libya and Sudan?

25/4/2022: Middle East Institute –How has the Ukraine war affected Russia's ties with Libya and Sudan?, by Samuel Ramani

 

Samuel Ramani, a Politics tutor at the University of Oxford, argues that as the Ukraine war drags on, Russia is unlikely to abandon or downsize its ambitions in Sudan, leaving its long-term influence contingent upon “opportunistic aspiring autocrats,” although “Moscow would lose out if [Sudan] takes a definitive step toward democracy.”

 

Ramani suggests that economic factors could restrict the scope of Russia-Sudan cooperation. Firstly, anti-Russian sentiments in Sudan may rise due to food insecurity exacerbated by poor harvests and one-third of Sudanese wheat imports coming from Russia and Ukraine. Secondly, the public exposure of sanctioned Russia’s reliance on illicit economic practices, such as its smuggling gold from Sudan, “has further eroded Moscow’s reputation in Sudan”.

 

Ramani also notes that up to 250 Sudanese military-controlled companies that have dealings with Russia could face secondary sanctions.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Sudan’s draft security bill faces criticism from different sides

25/4/2021: Sudan Tribune - Sudan’s draft security bill faces criticism from different sides

Sudan Tribune report that several political forces rejected the draft Internal Security Agency bill that provides a new security apparatus powers of arrest for 48 hours without a court order or warrant from the Public Prosecution office.

Yasir Arman, the deputy head of Malik Agar’s faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, said the bill was “as if Omar al-Bashir wrote it from his prison,” referring the former regimes suppression of opposition groups.  Arman added that the law should be passed by the Transitional Legislative Council.

The Democratic Unionist Alliance criticised the Ministry of Justice for failing to consult political groups, as well as the broad immunities, special courts, and the power given to the new security apparatus to withdraw cases from regular courts.

The Sudanese Communist Party said the law is "a new episode of the conspiracy against the forces of the revolution, aiming to circumvent its objectives."

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - SPLM-N’s Agar call to reform Sudan’s FFC coalition

25/4/2020: Sudan Tribune - SPLM-N’s Agar call to reform Sudan’s FFC coalition

 Sudan Tribune reports that Malik Agar, a factional leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), called for the reforms of Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) structures that would enable the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) to play an “effective” role in Sudan’s democratic transition.

 The SRF accuses FFC political forces of excluding them from consultations on Sudan’s future, with Sudan Tribune noting that several FFC parties justified SRF exclusion on the basis that the armed movements demanded peace negotiations to address the issues of their regions.

 Agar stated that the disunity of revolutionary forces and the management of their differences are “the first challenges to the transition” which reflect “the different intellectual premises” of the revolutionary forces.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Islamists behind attempts to destabilize Sudanese revolution: Burhan

25/4/2020: Sudan Tribune - Islamists behind attempts to destabilize Sudanese revolution: Burhan

 Sudan Tribune report that the head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Abdelfattah al-Burhan, said that the former ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is seeking to sow discord between the military and civilian components of the transitional authority.

 Al-Burhan further asserted arrangements are underway to arrest those who are involved in counter-revolutionary activities, with a meeting held with Sudan’s Attorney General to discuss ways to speed up the arrests of Islamists.

 He added that every time there is a rapprochement between the armed forces and the political "forces of the revolution", rumours emerge about a coup d’etat to destabilise security and stability. Al-Burhan also denied conflict with Sovereign Council deputy Himedti and Prime Minister Hamdok.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments - Sudan in transition: Two broad factors that will determine what happens now

25/4/19: African Arguments: Sudan in transition: Two broad factors that will determine what happens now

RUSI research analyst Michael Jones calls for Sudanese demonstrators to "continue to act as a nationally inclusive movement, presenting a common vision for Sudan’s future."

 Jones questions the sustainability of the protest movement, noting that the Sudan Revolutionary Front rebels from "starved" Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile State, may not have the patience for negotiations, and may settle for immediate material concessions. This could benefit the transitional military council (TMC), who may buy-off their critics with Saudi and Emirati money,  and scapegoat demonstrators for increasing the economic crisis.

 Jones also highlights the power-struggle among Sudan's ruling security apparatus, a legacy of Omar Al Bashir's divide-and-rule strategy to mitigate the risks of a coup.  The Sudanese army's reliance on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia has empowered RSF Commander and current transitional military council (TMC) deputy Himedti, and hampered the autonomy of TMC chief Abdelfattah Al Burhan.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Economist - Sudan's junta clings to power as protests grow

25/4/19: Economist – Sudan’s junta clings to power as protests grow

The Economist highlights issues with the civilian opposition, and the interests of the transitional military council, and international actors.

 The Economist highlights the Sudanese Professional Association struggle agree on a new government, and the Declaration of Freedom and Change coalition parties "jostling for position," with senior Sudanese journalist Osman Mirghani quoted warning that the military will take over "unless there is a clear plan."

 Meanwhile, TMC chief Abdelfattah Al Burhan and his deputy Himedti "say the right things, but seem reluctant to cede authority," with the Economist highlighting the financial losses that the military junta faces if it cedes power.

 Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are said to want "to stamp out any hope of a new Arab Spring." The western troika of the US, UK and Norway is said to suggest that the Sudanese Professionals Association reconsider some its demands.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Financial Times - Gulf allies shore up Sudan's interim military rulers

25/04/19: Financial Times - Gulf allies shore up Sudan’s interim military rulers, by Tom Wilson and David Pilling

 Tom Wilson and David Pilling argue that UAE and Saudi Arabia are threatening to hinder the transition to civilian rule in Sudan, through pledging and providing economic support to the sitting transitionary military council.

 Wilson and Pilling suggest that the move has “angered a population hostile to any foreign support for the interim military government,” although the aid packages minimise the immediate economic crisis.

 Former UK ambassador to Khartoum Dame Rosalind Marsden said that the Saudi-Emiratia support of the military council is ‘’thought to be driven primarily by the need to ensure Sudanese ground troops remain engaged in the war in Yemen.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: BBC - How fake news from Sudan's regime backfired

25/4/19: BBC – How fake news from Sudan’s regime backfired

Flora Carmichael and Owen Pinnell reveal that after the protests started gaining traction in December, the National Intelligence Security Service (NISS) had created propaganda to frame Darfuri students for inciting violence, and pin the growing unrest on rebels from Darfur.

 Carmichael and Pinnell explain that students would be tortured until they admitted to violent intent and carrying weapons to protests. False confession videos were then spread on social media pages and broadcasted on state television.

 The writers suggest that the ‘’use of fake confession videos showed that the regime was trying to further its own ends’’ but was instead ‘’outsmarted by ordinary Sudanese people’’.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Sudan may face counter coup if no accord on transition - opposition leader

25/4/19: Reuters – Sudan may face counter coup if no accord on transition – opposition leader

Sudan could face a counter coup if military rulers and the opposition don’t reach agreement on a transition of power, opposition leader Sadiq Al Mahdi told Reuters.

 Al Mahdi said he believed Sudan’s military council would hand over power to civilians if the current stalemate were broken. He also said he would consider running for president only in an election, not during the transition period

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Sudanese protesters delay naming of civilian government

25/4/19: Multiple sources – Sudanese protesters delay naming of civilian government

The Freedom and Change forces have postponed the announcement of its civil government pointing to the agreement sealed Wednesday with the Transitional Military Council (TMC) to work together for democratic transition in Sudan.

 In a meeting held on Wednesday evening, the TMC and the opposition forces agreed to build confidence and to form a joint committee to resolve the outstanding issues.

"On the basis of these developments and the agreement reached on the next steps with the Transitional Military Council, the Forces of Freedom and Change decided to postpone the announcement of the names of their nominees for the Transitional Civil Authority," said the statement.

The opposition stressed that the purpose of this step is to "reach a comprehensive and complete agreement with the Transitional Military Council paving the way for the declaration of all levels of the Transitional Civil Authority (TCA).

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Sudan military says 3 members of ruling council resign

25/4/19: Multiple sources – Sudan military says 3 members of ruling council resign

 

Three members of Sudan’s ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) have resigned, but their resignations are yet to be accepted.

 Omar Zain Al Abideen who heads the TMC’s political committee was one of the resigning members, The two others were Jalal Al Deen Al Sheikh an Eltayeb Babikir.

 The resignations came after the Sudanese Professionals’ Association, the main protest organiser, demanded that three be dismissed and tried over their alleged role in a crackdown that killed dozens of protesters.

 The Sudanese Professionals Association had said that Zain Al Abideen was the head of al-Bashir’s party within the military and was “trying to bring back the deposed regime.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Million strong march for civilian rule

25/4/19: Multiple sources – Million strong march for civilian rule

Reuters

BBC

Thousands of protesters have filled the streets of Khartoum calling for an end to the country's military council. Many had travelled in from across Sudan to take part in the "million-strong march" for civilian rule.

 It comes despite the resignation of three controversial figures from the ruling Transitional Military Council - one of the protesters' key demands. The three generals were seen as staunch Islamists and allies of deposed President Omar al-Bashir.