25/4/2022: Middle East Institute –How has the Ukraine war affected Russia's ties with Libya and Sudan?, by Samuel Ramani

Samuel Ramani, a Politics tutor at the University of Oxford, argues that as the Ukraine war drags on, Russia is unlikely to abandon or downsize its ambitions in Sudan, leaving its long-term influence contingent upon “opportunistic aspiring autocrats,” although “Moscow would lose out if [Sudan] takes a definitive step toward democracy.”

Ramani suggests that economic factors could restrict the scope of Russia-Sudan cooperation. Firstly, anti-Russian sentiments in Sudan may rise due to food insecurity exacerbated by poor harvests and one-third of Sudanese wheat imports coming from Russia and Ukraine. Secondly, the public exposure of sanctioned Russia’s reliance on illicit economic practices, such as its smuggling gold from Sudan, “has further eroded Moscow’s reputation in Sudan”.

Ramani also notes that up to 250 Sudanese military-controlled companies that have dealings with Russia could face secondary sanctions.