Sudan Coronavirus Report: Risks, Challenges, Impacts and Solutions

This report begins by covering the measures taken to fight the coronavirus pandemic by the Sudanese government, civil society and the international community. After highlighting the considerable challenges and risks that Sudan faces in containing the pandemic, the report will then explore the economic and political impacts of the coronavirus. The report concludes with proposed policy recommendations for the Sudanese government, civil society and the international community.

1) Measures taken (so far)

Sudan declares health emergency: Sudan’s Security and Defence Council chaired by the President of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Abdelfattah El Burhan, declared a state of health emergency to counter the coronavirus. Spokesman of the Sovereign Council, Mohamed El Faki, announced that a higher committee was formed to adopt measures required to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Sudan (Radio Dabanga, 17 March).

Entry banned: El Faki said the committee issued a decision to close all airports, ports, and land crossings, with the exception of trips that carry aid and technical and humanitarian support (Radio Dabanga, 17 March). Troops were deployed to Sudan’s borders with Ethiopia to further enforce entry closures (Radio Dabanga, 29 March). South Darfur’s borders with South Sudan and Central African Republic have also been closed (Sudan Tribune, 23 March).

Nationwide curfew: Sudan has imposed a nationwide curfew from 8pm to 6am. Public transport will also be curtailed, with Sudan halting all long-haul bus trips between cities and states (Multiple sources, 23 March).

Limiting mass gatherings (in Khartoum): Religious celebrations and rallies have been banned, with wedding halls, sports venues and shisha spots also being forced to close (Reuters, 20 March). Mosques in Khartoum have also shortened Friday prayers, following the guidance of the Ministry of Religious Affairs. Imams are required to read short phrases of the Holy Quran, with a distance kept between people during prayers (Radio Dabanga, 22 March).

Prisoners freed: Sudan has released 4,217 prisoners as a precaution against the spread of coronavirus. A health ministry official said those freed had been tested for possible infections (Reuters, 25 March).

International support: The US State Department announced an $8 million aid package for Sudan that will “primarily provide health-related support and supplies to bolster water and sanitation activities” (Sudan Tribune, 28 March). In addition, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an eight-country trade bloc in East Africa, have agreed to establish a strategy and emergency fund to fight coronavirus. The IGAD leaders agreed to jointly strengthen national health systems and build local manufacturing capacity for medical equipment and supplies to fight pandemic diseases (Sudan Tribune, 31 March).

Total lockdown (in one town): The town of Alborgaig, in Sudan’s Northern State (al-Shamaliyah) has taken matters into its own hands. Under the slogan of “Never Leave Your Home,” the Emergency Office of Alborgaig and the resistance committees in the locality have imposed an all-day curfew, with all exits and entries to the town being blocked (Radio Dabanga, 2 April).

The Sudanese government has been hesitant to imposed a total lockdown, although a gradual lockdown is under consideration.

2) Policies in development

Sudanese government policies under-development include the potential of a gradual lockdown, with a $76 million plan to contain the coronavirus announced by the Health Ministry.

I. Gradual lockdown

Before Alborgaig imposed a total lockdown, Hafiz Ismail, the head of the NGO Justice Africa Sudan called for a two-week national lockdown, warning that the dusk-to-dawn curfew has no significant effect, given that most people leave their home in daytime (Radio Dabanga, 27 March). However, Sudan’s Information Minister, Faisal Mohammed Salih, said that a complete lockdown will require specific measures for those who depend on daily work, and that the government should “compensate their loss of income in case of a complete lockdown” (Radio Dabanga, 3 April).

Nonetheless, Salih confirmed that the Sudanese Cabinet has adopted a step-by-step approach to a lockdown, with the prospects under discussion including: food distribution channels via cooperative societies, or through distribution centres selling basic commodities for reduced prices for the many people working in the informal sector.

II. $76 million plan

Sudan’s Minister of Health, Akram Eltom, announced a nationwide plan to combat the spread of coronavirus that will cost $76 million. The plan includes isolation centres, management of arrivals at points of entry, patient care, infection prevention and control, supplies, risks communication, surveillance and capacity-building (Sudan Tribune, 22 March).

3) Challenges and Risks

According to Vera Songwe, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the coronavirus pandemic “would weigh on Africa’s health and education sectors for years to come” (Bloomberg, 29 March).

Sudan’s particular challenges and risks in containing the coronavirus include: a weak health sector inherited from al-Bashir’s regime, the increased vulnerability of Sudan’s peripheral regions, socio-economic norms which render social distancing or a lockdown impractical, and government difficulties in enforcing quarantines.

UNICEF Sudan - Key issues in attempts to raise sanitation standards in Sudan

I. Weak health sector

Reuters (25 March) note that the Sudanese health system “is in a poor state” due to “years without investment,” with the UN Humanitarian Coordination (OCHA) stating that only a third of Sudanese health facilities offer a basic package of care (Radio Dabanga, 29 March). Corruption and mismanagement under Omar al-Bashir’s regime has left the Sudanese public health system understaffed and underequipped to cope with the coronavirus crisis.

Sudan’s weak health system is viewed as a legacy of Omar al-Bashir’s regime.

Abeer Dirar, who jointly organised a public awareness campaign in Khartoum, said Sudan does not have the logistics to face coronavirus given “the cumulative destruction of the health system” during al-Bashir’s rule (Voice of America, 28 March). Khartoum-based writer Mark Weston (Mail and Guardian, 24 March) attributes Sudan’s “withered” public health services to al-Bashir’s cronies making vast profits from private hospitals.

Understaffed and under-equipped health facilities.

As a result, OCHA note that Sudanese health facilities are understaffed and under-equipped to cope with large-scale outbreaks. Reuters (25 March) note that Sudan witnessed “an exodus of doctors to seek work in Gulf Arab countries.” According to local reports, Sudan only has 80 Intensive Care Units in both the public and private sector (Voice of America, 28 March). The Ministry of Health has only a few dozen testing kits, meaning that the true number of coronavirus cases “may be much higher than the official figure” (Mail and Guardian, 24 March).

Moreover, with most Sudanese unable to afford private healthcare, 18 of Sudan’s 80 ventilators are in a single Khartoum private hospital, with Sudan possessing under 200 critical care beds, and only 40 in public hospitals (Mail and Guardian, 24 March).

To compound matters, Professor Hasan Bashir, economist and director of the Red Sea University, told Radio Dabanga (26 March) that the curfew will negatively impact the health services, as most clinics and doctors operate in the evening.

II. Vulnerable peripheral regions

Sudanese from the conflict zones in Sudan’s peripheral regions are at risk in the event of a coronavirus pandemic given the prevalence of camps for internally displaced persons. There are also concerns that Sudanese in the peripheries are neglected in government and voluntary initiatives to contain the coronavirus. While some analysts suggest that Khartoum is at a higher risk, the peripheral regions are exposed to coronavirus transmission through their reliance on international NGO staff for security and development.

Crowded displacement camps.

Sudan’s conflict zones are at particular risk from the coronavirus pandemic. Mohammed Osman, an Assistant Researcher for Human Rights Watch (HRW), emphasises the vulnerability of Sudan’s refugees and displaced communities in conflict zones “many of whom live in large camp settings” (HRW, 1 April). Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), warns that coronavirus will “decimate crowded displacement camps, slums and community centres” (NRC, 26 March).

Neglect of the peripheral regions.

There are also worries that Sudan’s marginalised peripheries may be neglected in the government’s containment of the coronavirus. The Forces for Freedom in Change (FFC) in South Kordofan warned of the fragility of their state, citing its open borders with South Sudan. The FFC called on federal health authorities “to go to the province and provide the necessary support” (Radio Dabanga, 23 March).

Such neglect has also been visible in voluntary initiatives. The Sudanese American Medical Association (SAMA) has supported 16 hospitals in ten days – but all of them are in Khartoum or El-Gezira State, prompting a Sudanese Twitter user to state: “[SAMA] aren’t bad people but they don’t Sudan apart from Khartoum and its surroundings.”

Counter-argument: Does Khartoum face a higher risk?

Some analysts have suggested that Khartoum is at higher risk. Weston states that the sparsely spread population outside Khartoum may help to slow the spread of coronavirus (Mail and Guardian, 24 March). Professor Hamid Eltigani, an economist at the American University in Cairo, told Radio Dabanga (25 March) that the coronavirus will be contained in Khartoum - unless those coming from abroad travel into Sudan’s peripheral regions.

Nonetheless, the peripheral regions are at risk from coronavirus transmission from international NGO staff that are relied upon for security and development. A South Darfur state committee to combat the spread of coronavirus has registered eight suspected cases, including two Egyptian soldiers in the African Union-UN Mission in Darfur (Sudan Tribune, 23 March).

III. Socio-economic norms

Socio-economic norms in Sudan render it difficult to implement measures that slow the spread of coronavirus. While social norms risk accelerating the spread of coronavirus, economic norms render social distancing measures highly impractical for a large section of society.

Sudanese social norms

In addition to the risk of coronavirus decimating the crowded displacement camps of Sudan’s conflict zones, Weston (Mail and Guardian, 24 March) identifies further social risks that leave Sudan ill-prepared for a coronavirus crisis, citing the prevalence of large families living in cramped spaces and handshake customs. According to Hafiz Ismail, the head of the NGO Justice Africa Sudan, the dusk-to-dawn curfew has no significant effect, given that most people leave their home in daytime (Radio Dabanga, 27 March).

Sudanese economic norms

Moreover, it will be difficult to implement social distancing measures given that a large section of Sudanese society relies on day-to-day work. Osman notes the many who work in the informal sector who “may not have the luxury of social distancing or staying home” (HRW, 1 April).

For example, in Darfur, the ending of UN World Food Programme (UNWFD) rations in displacement camps forced people to travel to seek work (Radio Dabanga, 29 March). Another example is that South Darfur Governor Hashim Khaled has refused to close the Nyala market, which locals rely on to make an income, despite declaring a state of emergency that includes the banning of public gatherings and the closure of borders with South Sudan and the Central African Republic (Sudan Tribune, 23 March).

IV. Inability to enforce quarantines

The transitional government has placed faith in citizens to undergo self-quarantine and notify health authorities if they display symptoms. However, according to reports, suspected cases of coronavirus have refused to cooperate with the authorities. The government also lacks the capacity to regulate quarantine zones or incentivise suspected coronavirus cases to stay in quarantine zones.

The government’s lax quarantine policy

Akram Eltom, Sudanese health minister, announced that the Sudanese coronavirus committee decided to not systematically confine those who returned from countries with a high risk of coronavirus. Eltom called on citizens who returned from abroad to undergo self-quarantine in their homes and to notify the health authorities if they or their family members are showing symptoms (Sudan Tribune, 20 March). However, the reliance on individual citizens in containing the spread of coronavirus is proving to be risky, given the reports of social irresponsibility.

Social irresponsibility among suspected cases of coronavirus

Weston (Mail and Guardian, 24 March) highlighted a case of a junior doctor who returned from Morocco with coronavirus symptoms. The doctors wife had already tested positive for coronavirus. Upon his arrival at the airport, the doctor took paracetamol to mask his fever. He then went to work as normal, potentially infecting dozens, before his symptoms worsened.

Naba Mohiedeen (Voice of America, 28 March) reported on incidents of civilians escaping from, or refusing, to quarantine. Firstly, 300 left a quarantine at the Universal Hospital in Khartoum in mid-March. Secondly, four bus passengers fled an isolation centre near the border with Egypt. Thirdly, 150 Sudanese students who returned from quarantine in China staged a sit-in in refusal to be quarantined again. Although the Ministry of Health gave in to their demands, critics warn that if any of them are carrying the virus, they could put Sudan’s health system in a dire situation.

Passengers from an international flight are screened for their temperature in Sudan.

Does the government have the capacity to regulate and enforce quarantines?

It is questionable if the government has the capacity to incentivise quarantines, particularly in Sudan’s peripheral regions. For example, 34 Sudanese who returned from Egypt who have been quarantined in the Red Sea state, reportedly complained of water and food shortages and that they are forced to sleep on the sand because there are no beds. They appeal to the authorities for urgent assistance (Radio Dabanga, 30 March). By contrast, the Kingdom of Jordan has been able to quarantine suspected cases of coronavirus in five-star hotels.

4) Economic and Political Impacts of the Coronavirus in Sudan

Although one analyst suggests that the coronavirus pandemic could benefit Sudan’s economy, travel restrictions have already resulted in soaring transport, commodity and food prices, with the many Sudanese who are reliant on day-to-day work unable to make an income. To compound matters, aid-reliant Sudan may economically suffer as its international donors focus on their own domestic efforts to contain the coronavirus. There are also concerns that the coronavirus could pave the way for a return to military rule.

Can coronavirus benefit the Sudanese economy?

Professor Hamid Eltigani, an economist at the American University in Cairo, told Radio Dabanga (25 March) that he does not expect the coronavirus pandemic to affect the Sudanese economy significantly, as the isolation of the Sudanese economy means it is not affected by global economic tremors. Eltigani went on to suggest that Sudan may benefit from the crisis, as it may balance Sudan’s consumption and spending relative to its production and export, with the latter likely to increase.

Will coronavirus exacerbate the economic crisis?

Nonetheless, Eltigani notes that Sudanese expats may be unable to send assistance to their relatives in Sudan. In addition, Professor Hasan Bashir, economist and director of the Red Sea University, told Radio Dabanga (26 March) that the coronavirus pandemic will seriously affect the most vulnerable people in Sudan. The most affected [by the curfew] are those who depend on their day-to-day income. These represent a very large segment of the Sudanese people,” Bashir said.

Bashir further states that the “entire non-regulated sector” across Sudan, including transport, gold and other export products “that constitute a pillar of the Sudanese economy” will be hit. Across Sudan, many who rely on day-to-day work are unable to make incomes as the travel restrictions have raised transport prices, which have also culminated in limited supplies and soaring prices for food and commodities (Radio Dabanga, 29 March).

Consequently, Radio Dabanga (1 April) reported that the export of Sudanese vegetables and fruits have stopped due to the significantly increased costs of transportation. With the cost of transport in Sudan already soaring due to the ongoing fuel crisis, shipping by air and sea has become extremely expensive due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Director General of the Sudanese Centre for the Sterilisation of Horticultural Export, Abdelrahman Abdelmajid said.

Will Sudan lose aid money?

Cameron Hudson, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council (30 March) suggests that Arab Gulf and Western governments are likely to revisit development budgets as they turn to their domestic response efforts to coronavirus, arguing that “profoundly aid-dependent countries like Sudan have to reconcile themselves to the likelihood that even pledged assistance funds might not materialise this year.”

To compound matters, with Sudan’s aid appeal for 2020 stated to only receive as little as 13% of funding, Egeland warns that Sudan’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism “could aggravate the current crisis, potentially preventing the flow of much-needed funding” (NRC, 26 March).

A possible return to military rule?

According to Hudson (Atlantic Council, 30 March), there is a risk that the coronavirus crisis may pave the way for military rule reverting in Sudan. Hudson writes that “some in Sudan’s international ‘Friends Group’” are concerned by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s “timid response” to the crisis, warning that the democratic transition may stall unless Hamdok fails to reassure a worried public, skeptical donor community, and an unreformed security sector that he can rally a national response to the coronavirus crisis.

5) Solutions

Policy recommendations to help Sudan contain the coronavirus and mitigate its impacts have been directed towards the Sudanese government, civil society and the international community. Sudan has received political and economic suggestions from analysts, the Communist Party of Sudan, civil society leaders, health care professionals and a high-profile UN diplomat. Proposed international solutions for Sudan’s management of the coronavirus have seen calls for calls for debt relief from financial institutions, and for continued support for the democratic transition.

I. For Sudan:

Political solutions

Increase funding for the Ministry of Health: Professor Eltigani called for the creation of a national fund to support the Ministry of Health’s budget (Radio Dabanga, 25 March). Similarly, the Communist Party of Sudan has called for all resources available at all state agencies, including army and police hospitals, and hospitals of the security apparatus to be directed to the Ministry of Health (Radio Dabanga, 30 March).

Increase the capacity of health care facilities: Health care professionals in Sudan have called for more antiviral drugs, ventilators, ambulances, hand sanitisers and personal protective equipment for health workers (Mail and Guardian, 24 March). The Communist Party of Sudan have called for hospitals to be equipped with quarantine areas for suspected cases and patients, and for laboratory services to confirm whether suspected patients carry the disease (Radio Dabanga, 30 March).

Focus on the vulnerable: Osman (HRW, 1 April) calls on Sudanese authorities to ramp up health services to crowded and under-serviced urban areas, provide water points and testing facilities, and increase public information about the virus. The Sudanese Communist Party has called for the ministries of Finance, Trade, Labour, Social Welfare, and Health to provide the funds needed to monitor and support vulnerable groups (Radio Dabanga, 27 March).

In addition, El-Shafee Abdullah, a co-ordinator for an internally displaced persons’ camp in Darfur called on the UNWFD, transitional government and humanitarian aid organisations to help displaced persons (Radio Dabanga, 29 March).

Home delivery services: To enable social isolation, Professor Bashir called on the Sudanese people, especially youth activists and neighbourhood resistance committees to expand the scope of home delivery services, especially medicines (Radio Dabanga, 26 March).

Ceasefire: UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Sudan, Gwi-Yeop Son, has called for a ceasefire across Sudan, emphasising the need “to create corridors for life-saving aid and open precious windows for diplomacy and ultimate peace” (Radio Dabanga, 29 March).

Economic solutions

Buy oil: Given that the crisis is resulting in low global oil prices, Professor Eltigani called for the Sudanese government to obtain as much oil as possible at the current low prices, thereby helping to solve the ongoing fuel crisis (Radio Dabanga, 25 March).

Support small businesses: To mitigate the effects of coronavirus measures on small and medium businesses, the head of the economics department of the International University of Sudan, Dr Majda Mustafa, has called on the transitional government to direct banks to provide soft finance to small-and medium-sized businesses that need liquidity, and postpone any instalments due. Mustafa also called on the government to increase spending that stimulates buying, selling and production, so that the poor and middle classes will continue to be able to purchase their daily basic needs (Radio Dabanga, 18 March).

II. For the international community:

Cancel debts

East African leaders have called on the international financial institutions to cancel their debts, in order to free up resources to fight the coronavirus (Sudan Tribune, 31 March).

Similarly, in calls for an emergency economic stimulus of $100 billion for African countries to contain the coronavirus, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) suggest that almost half of the funds could come from waiving interest payments to multilateral institutions, giving countries the fiscal space needed to impose social-distancing measures, widen social safety nets and equip hospitals to treat the sick ahead of an expected surge in infections (Bloomberg, 29 March).

UNECA Executive Secretary Vera Songwe added that a measure that may provide immediate relief is the creation of the special purpose vehicle requested by African finance ministers through which interest payments on sovereign bonds could be sequestered and provide all African countries.

Continue supporting the democratic transition

With international donor conferences being cancelled, and pledged assistance funds unlikely to materialise this year, Human Rights Watch (1 April) call for Sudan’s international donors to not let the coronavirus pandemic “become yet another obstacle to Sudan's transition.”

Similarly, the Norwegian Refugee Council (26 March) also call on the international community to help Sudan “cement positive change and defend vulnerable communities from the unfolding health crisis,” warning that a historical opportunity is being lost “in the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic.”