SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy - A Plague O’ Both Your Houses: The False Dilemma of Sudan’s Elites

7/3/2023: Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy - A Plague O’ Both Your Houses: The False Dilemma of Sudan’s Elites, by Kholood Khair

ANALYSIS

With the framework agreement argued to favour Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia commander Himedti, Kholood Khair, the founding director of Confluence Advisory think-tank, argues that the deal has created a binary choice between Himedti and the commander-in-chief of the Sudanese armed forces Abdulfattah al-Burhan - “while the demands of pro-democracy groups have taken a back-seat and are in danger of being relegated to the procedural abyss.”

Khair argues the “false dilemma” of the Himedti-Burhan binary contributes to a heavily militarised political scene in Sudan, which is not “encouraging for prospects of a peaceful transition toward democracy”.

In addition, Khair adds that the international community have bought into the Himedti-Burhan dilemma “over the sustainability in Sudan” which culminates in international division over which general to back toward a “stable” outcome for Sudan and the region— which Khair labels “a fool’s errand, as neither general can”.

SOLUTIONS

Kholood Khair, the founding director of Confluence Advisory think-tank, calls for the international community to “reject the false dilemma” of picking between Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia commander Himedti and the commander-in-chief of the Sudanese armed forces Abdulfattah al-Burhan.

Instead, Khair calls for political actors to be supported in resetting their calculations based on the Himedti-Burhan binary, with the generals pushed to commit to long-term reform and before a new transitional period. In the interim, Khair calls for the international community to push for the release of all detainees, and separately support civic groups to seek legal redress for miscarriages of justice against pro-democracy actors.

Khair concludes that a successful political process in Sudan privileges organic and considered interventions that aim to break the transactional militarised politics, which requires civilians to avoid Faustian pacts and strive for greater unity and shared civilian opportunities.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources: Himedti vows to resist those who cling to power refusing civilian government

7/3/2023: Multiple sources: Himedti vows to resist those who cling to power refusing civilian government

•    Sudan Tribune

•    Radio Dabanga

Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Himedti said his forces dispute “those who cling to power” rather than the army.

Sudan Tribune report that after tensions flared between Himedti and army commander-in-chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan over the framework agreement, the UAE sent its state minister for foreign affairs to de-escalate the verbal attacks.

Sudan Tribune add that Al-Burhan and senior army figures did not appreciate Himedti’s support for the framework agreement with its agreed signatories, with Himedti’s “indiscipline” allegedly foiling their flans to add more political forces supporting their vision for the transition.

Radio Dabanga note that Resistance Committees still consider Himedti “an enemy of the revolution,” and call for the RSF to be disbanded and brought to justice. “They are controlling the country’s resources, such as gold and other minerals and the export of livestock, and use the revenues to wage wars in the country,” the committees said.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: AP - Sudan general says military leaders clinging to power

7/3/2023: AP - Sudan general says military leaders clinging to power, by Samy Magdy

AP report that Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia commander Himedti “slammed” Sudan’s ruling generals, saying they oppose stepping down to allow for a democratic transition under a civilian administration, and that his recent conflict with other military leaders is centered on the issue of handing over power to civilians.

Despite playing down tensions between the RSF and the military as an institution, AP write that Himedti’s comments “were apparently referring to Gen. Abdulfattah al-Burhan, chairman of the ruling sovereign council” and commander-in-chief of the Sudanese army.

AP add that Himedti “has in recent months sought to reinvent his public image and that of his forces” and “portrayed himself as a defender of the restoration of democratic transition”. 

Himedti also said that foreign countries including wealthy Gulf monarchies and European governments have made restoring the democratic transition a condition for resuming assistance to Sudan.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: AP - Roiled by economic crisis, Sudan to float its currency

7/3/2022: AP - Roiled by economic crisis, Sudan to float its currency, by Samy Magdy

AP report cash-stripped Sudan announced it will float its currency as economic conditions deteriorate further four months after a military coup plunged the African nation into further turmoil.

The Central Bank of Sudan said banks and exchange firms will determine the value of the Sudanese pound based on supply and demand. The central bank governor, Yahai Hussein Ganqoul, said there will be no interference from the central bank.

The move is likely to cause a swift increase in prices of commodities and services in response to a drop in the value of the pound. Ganqoul said the move is part of a package of reforms that aim to stabilize the exchange rate of the pound. Local media report that the currency has been trading at around 570 Sudanese pounds to the dollar on the black market while its official rate was at just over 445 pounds to $1.