7/3/2023: Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy - A Plague O’ Both Your Houses: The False Dilemma of Sudan’s Elites, by Kholood Khair

ANALYSIS

With the framework agreement argued to favour Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia commander Himedti, Kholood Khair, the founding director of Confluence Advisory think-tank, argues that the deal has created a binary choice between Himedti and the commander-in-chief of the Sudanese armed forces Abdulfattah al-Burhan - “while the demands of pro-democracy groups have taken a back-seat and are in danger of being relegated to the procedural abyss.”

Khair argues the “false dilemma” of the Himedti-Burhan binary contributes to a heavily militarised political scene in Sudan, which is not “encouraging for prospects of a peaceful transition toward democracy”.

In addition, Khair adds that the international community have bought into the Himedti-Burhan dilemma “over the sustainability in Sudan” which culminates in international division over which general to back toward a “stable” outcome for Sudan and the region— which Khair labels “a fool’s errand, as neither general can”.

SOLUTIONS

Kholood Khair, the founding director of Confluence Advisory think-tank, calls for the international community to “reject the false dilemma” of picking between Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia commander Himedti and the commander-in-chief of the Sudanese armed forces Abdulfattah al-Burhan.

Instead, Khair calls for political actors to be supported in resetting their calculations based on the Himedti-Burhan binary, with the generals pushed to commit to long-term reform and before a new transitional period. In the interim, Khair calls for the international community to push for the release of all detainees, and separately support civic groups to seek legal redress for miscarriages of justice against pro-democracy actors.

Khair concludes that a successful political process in Sudan privileges organic and considered interventions that aim to break the transactional militarised politics, which requires civilians to avoid Faustian pacts and strive for greater unity and shared civilian opportunities.