SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Foreign Policy – It’s Not Too Late to Defeat the Coup in Sudan

29/10/2021: Foreign Policy – It’s Not Too Late to Defeat the Coup in Sudan, by Abdelrahman Mansour

Writer Abdelrahman Mansour calls for the US and democratic allies to convert criticism of the military coup to concrete demands and an accountability timeline tied to sanctions, thereby forcing Sudan’s military leaders to reconsider their power grab.

In particular, Mansour suggests that the US exert pressure on the Arab governments that supported the counterrevolution in Sudan, an urgent international summit to denounce the coup, and discussing with the international community threats to prosecute military leaders Abdulfattah al-Burhan and Himedti in domestic courts.

While, the severe economic situation plummeted the popularity of civilian leaders and “made it easier for the military to snatch power under the guise of restoring stability and prosperity,” Mansour suggests that coup is in a “fragile state” as it: lacks regional and internal support, opponents of the military government will not stay silent, and the Sudanese army lacks the widespread popularity enjoyed by its counterpart in Egypt.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Conversation – Explainer: what Sudan’s coup is about and why the rest of the world needs to act

29/10/2021: Conversation – Explainer: what Sudan’s coup is about and why the rest of the world needs to act, by Anne Bartlett

To support the “brave campaign of civil resistance” against the military junta, Anne Bartlett of the University of New South Wales, calls for “significant diplomatic pressure… on countries supporting [military leaders] al-Burhan and Himedti,” alongside “urgent attention paid to forensic investigation of illegal revenue streams that bypass the government and undermine democratic change.”

Bartlett notes that civilian actors “could not financially outmanoeuvre the military faction or their foreign supporters,” citing the military’s numerous holding companies whereby “much of the revenue bypasses government coffers and goes into their private accounts abroad,” making the military financially unassailable and enabling them to undermine the civilian government at every turn, including through “rent-a-crowd” demonstrations in Khartoum to support their interests.

In addition, Bartlett notes the global security risks posed by the competition over power between the military faction, hard-line Islamist elements, informal and formal armed force and a plethora of groups and armed militias.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Bloomberg – Can an Arab Ally of the U.S. Reverse the Coup in Sudan?

29/10/2021: Bloomberg – Can an Arab Ally of the U.S. Reverse the Coup in Sudan?, by Eli Lake

Columnist Eli Lake reveals that US and Arab diplomats told him that Brett McGurk, the Middle East and North Africa coordinator at the US’ National Security Council, worked closely with Tahnoun bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE national security advisor, to negotiate with the Sudanese Army chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan the return to power of ousted prime minister Abdallah Hamdok.

Sudan’s ambassador the US, Nureldin Satti, said he was aware of similar efforts from Egypt.

Atlantic Council’s Cameron Hudson said “the impetus behind the coup to seize power” was al-Burhan losing leadership of the ruling Sovereign Council to a civilian potentially opening the door to tribunals and “divesting the military of its considerable financial holdings inside the country”.

Satti said some civilian government leaders failed to address military concerns, telling Lake: “If you have someone holding a gun, you cannot take it out of their hand unless you give him an alternative”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: New York Times – ‘They Lied.’ Inside the Frantic Days Leading to Sudan’s Coup

29/10/2021: New York Times – ‘They Lied.’ Inside the Frantic Days Leading to Sudan’s Coup, by Abdi Latif Dahir and Declan Walsh

With the military fearing that “any measures of accountability would expose their personal, financial and factional interests,” NYT’s feature piece explores motivations for the coup.

Noting that army chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan heads the board of trustees for one of the military’s biggest firms, Suliman Baldo of the Sentry said that al-Burhan is “doubling up as a corporate baron”.  

Sudan analyst Jihad Mashamoun notes that al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces chief Himedti were reluctant to step down amid ex-President Omar al-Bashir’s potential transfer to the International Criminal Court for atrocities in Darfur, as they fear being implicated and “would like…some immunity”.

Nonetheless, Sudanese ambassador to the US, Nureldin Satti, suggested that “some civilians did not understand the importance of alleviating the military’s fears,” with deposed civilian Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, “a technocrat by training and temperament” lacking “the political skills to manage the tensions… he pushed too hard, too fast.”

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: New York Times – This Is How to Stop the Coup in Sudan

29/10/2021: New York Times – This Is How to Stop the Coup in Sudan, by Killian Clarke and Mai Hassan

Arguing that the combination of protests and geopolitics could reverse the military coup, political experts Killian Clarke and Mai Hassan suggest that the US does its utmost to avoid a repeat of the failure of Egypt’s democratic attempts through “sanctions that target the coup leaders directly,” and using its alliances with “Gulf powers to halt any support, not least financial, that the coup leaders may receive from these governments”.

Clarke and Hassan suggest “there are reasons for hope in Sudan,” citing that the fissures in the revolutionary coalition are not as “severe as they were in Egypt,” where “many members of the secularist wing openly backed the military,” whereas in Sudan, the coup has only been supported by the breakaway National Accord faction of the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC-NA).

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Foreign Policy – Sudan’s Coup Is a Gamble That Nobody Will Care

29/10/2021: Foreign Policy – Sudan’s Coup Is a Gamble That Nobody Will Care, by Rebecca Hamilton

Rebecca Hamilton, an associate professor at American University’s Washington College of Law, calls for the US to pressure Gulf states to not enable the coup, adding to consistent international messaging the deny the legitimacy of military leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan’s new government.

However, Hamilton warns that the worst outcome of international mediation “is also the most likely,” raising the prospect of the UN Security Councils settling on a plea for restraint and dialogue, which would be welcomed by Sudanese military leaders who risk dissenting ranks if they order mass violence against peaceful protesters, and “al-Burhan “would welcome endless dialogue—provided the military stays in control of Sudan’s assets and continues to evade accountability for its many past atrocities”.

Nonetheless, Hamilton notes that Sudanese people are unlikely to accept this outcome, and their confidence towards, and organisational abilities for, toppling dictators, “have continued to grow”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Atlantic Council – Sudan’s coup wasn’t a failure of US diplomacy. It was the dawn of a new era in Africa

29/10/2021: Atlantic Council –  Sudan’s coup wasn’t a failure of US diplomacy. It was the dawn of a new era in Africa, by Cameron Hudson

Directed at the US government, Atlantic Council senior fellow Cameron Hudson proposes various solutions to support Sudanese aspirations for a civilian-led democratic government including:

Targeted measures against military leaders and their domestic and foreign political allies that undermined civilian rule.

Redouble efforts to support Sudan’s “vibrant civil society groups,

virtually the last hope for revolution, by funnelling money to sustain their work and skirt the military’s insidious control of the internet”.

For the US State Department to designate the Rapid Support Forces a “Foreign Terrorist Organization”

Lastly, “as odious as it may be,” Hudson suggests openness to the possibility of “

facilitating a soft landing for military leaders in exchange for their exit from the political and economic space they control,” as “legislation absolving military leaders of past crimes and granting them immunity…may be required to send the army back to the barracks”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments – “This Is Not a Coup”: Al-Burhan’s Path to Victory

29/10/2021: African Arguments – “This Is Not a Coup”: Al-Burhan’s Path to Victory, by an anonymous author

An anonymous writer suggests that the success of military leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan’s military coup is contingent upon three things:

Firstly, al-Burhan must “subjugate the protest movement through brutal repression,” which is contingent upon convincing mid-to-low level soldiers to “execute bloody orders”, and keeping Rapid Support Forces commander Himedti on his side without alienating officers from the Sudanese Armed Forces.

Secondly, given that senior army officials are “most likely to dictate the fate of al-Burhan’s government,” he must coup-proof his regime by proving to senior security officers that he can keep the patronage network alive and that his regime is viable through domestic political legitimacy.

To achieve domestic political legitimacy, al-Burhan’s government must include Forces of Freedom and Change leaders, which is likely as “the self-serving nature of Khartoum’s political elite means that a combination of money and political power has a good chance of seducing [FFC] leaders.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Sudan's ousted PM wants coup reversed before talks, sources say

29/10/2021: Reuters - Sudan's ousted PM wants coup reversed before talks, sources say, by Khalid Abdelaziz

Reuters report that Abdallah Hamdok, the prime minister ousted by the military in the 25 October coup, is ready to negotiate on the formation of a new government on condition that the military reverses its coup and releases detainees, sources who met with him said.

However, the army told mediators it would only release detainees who were not facing criminal charges, the sources said.

One minister in Hamdok's ousted government, speaking on condition of anonymity, said cabinet members were not opposed to standing aside for a new government, provided it is led and chosen by Hamdok, and the transitional agreement is restored in full.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Khartoum sit-in for slain protestors holds firm

29/10/2020: Radio Dabanga - Khartoum sit-in for slain protestors holds firm

 Radio Dabanga report that sit-ins and protests in Khartoum continued, as demonstrators demanded justice for protestors killed, and the release of nine detained activists.

 A sit-in in El Jereif East in Bahri continued for the seventh consecutive day to demand justice for the two protestors killed during the Marches of the Millions on October 21.

 Meanwhile, the Resistance Committees of El Lamab Nasir in Burri district in Khartoum, organised a protest in front of the Public Prosecution office against the prolonged detention of nine activists from the neighbourhood.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Sudan’s transitional authority, FFC form coordination committee

29/10/19: Sudan Tribune - Sudan’s transitional authority, FFC form coordination committee

 Sudan Tribune reports that the Forces of Freedom and Change, the Sovereign Council and the Transitional Government have agreed to form a coordination committee to implement the programme of the transitional period.

 The announcement comes after criticisms from the FFC that the transitional authorities were implemented reforms slowly.

 Subcommittees to tackle specific issues will also be formed, with Information Minister Faisal Mohammed Salih promising a panel to work on securing peace and dissolving the former ruling National Congress Party.

 The representatives are:

Sovereign Council (Civilians)

• Aisha Musa

• Mohamed Hassan Eltaishi

Sovereign Council (Military)

• Lt. Gen. Yasir Al-Atta

• Lt. Gen. Shams al-Din Kabbashi

Cabinet Ministers:

• Omer Monis (Minister of Cabinet Affairs)

• Intisar Saghairoun (Minister of Higher Education)

• Faisal Mohamed Saleh (Information Minister)

• Youssef Alday (Minister of Federal Government)

 FFC:

• Ahmed Rabie

• Amina Mahmoud

•  Ayman Khaled

•  Taha Youssef

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - HUDO: ‘RSF militiamen contaminated water in Talodi, South Kordofan’

29/10/19: Radio Dabanga - HUDO: ‘RSF militiamen contaminated water in Talodi, South Kordofan’

 Radio Dabanga reports that the Sudanese Human Rights and Development Organisation (HUDO) claims that members of the Rapid Support Forces poisoned waterways in Talodi, South Kordofan, with cyanide.

 According to HUDO, on October 17 the RSF arrived at a gold mining plant in Talodi and harassed young activists protesting the use of highly toxic cyanide and mercury in gold mining by the RSF’s businesses.

 When the RSF left the area, HUDO claims they deliberately poured cyanide into some of the waterways in the area. When members of the Talodi Youth Association for Development heard about this, they visited the site immediately. They saw a donkey and a cow dying minutes after drinking from the contaminated water.

 HUDO urged the transitional government hold the alleged perpetrators accountable, and to put in place measures that protect the safety of the people and stop the RSF’s continued violations.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga –Sudan police: ‘Musa Hilal trial criminal, not political’

29/10/19: Radio Dabanga –Sudan police: ‘Musa Hilal trial criminal, not political’

 Radio Dabanga reports that Sudanese police have revealed new details about the arrest and trial by Court Martial of former Janjaweed leader Musa Hilal, asserting that he was arrested on criminal charges, rather than political.

 The Darfur Bar Association has described the trial of Hilal and his affiliates as invalid, with no no legal ground because the alleged crimes relate to the resisting and opposing the former regime, “which are legitimate activities that cannot constitute crimes.”

 However, Sudanese police claim that Hilal’s forces attacked the police in Darfur, killing 15. They reiterated that “Hilal belongs to the armed forces and he is facing criminal charges under the Sudanese Criminal Code.”

 The Sudanese police further explained that Hilal’s indictment consists of the military judiciary and the public prosecution, as well as the police, who join them as a claimant.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Khartoum urges new plan for Sudan’s removal from terror list

29/10/19: Sudan Tribune - Khartoum urges new plan for Sudan’s removal from terror list

 Sudan Tribune reports that the Sudanese Foreign Ministry urged the US to develop a joint mechanism to normalise bilateral relations and remove Sudan from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.

 After a meeting with Brian Shukan - the new U.S. Chargé d’Affaires to Sudan - Elham Mohamed Ahmed, the Assistant Undersecretary at the Sudanese Foreign Ministry, stressed the need to re-establish a joint mechanism to resume the dialogue process with the US.  

 US Special Envoy to Sudan Donald Booth said that the US is working to remove the terrorism designation and engaging with the Congress to amend or modify three acts specific to Sudan and other legislations imposing restrictions on Sudan.