SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments – “This Is Not a Coup”: Al-Burhan’s Path to Victory
An anonymous writer suggests that the success of military leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan’s military coup is contingent upon three things:
Firstly, al-Burhan must “subjugate the protest movement through brutal repression,” which is contingent upon convincing mid-to-low level soldiers to “execute bloody orders”, and keeping Rapid Support Forces commander Himedti on his side without alienating officers from the Sudanese Armed Forces.
Secondly, given that senior army officials are “most likely to dictate the fate of al-Burhan’s government,” he must coup-proof his regime by proving to senior security officers that he can keep the patronage network alive and that his regime is viable through domestic political legitimacy.
To achieve domestic political legitimacy, al-Burhan’s government must include Forces of Freedom and Change leaders, which is likely as “the self-serving nature of Khartoum’s political elite means that a combination of money and political power has a good chance of seducing [FFC] leaders.”