SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments - Sudan in transition: Two broad factors that will determine what happens now
RUSI research analyst Michael Jones calls for Sudanese demonstrators to "continue to act as a nationally inclusive movement, presenting a common vision for Sudan’s future."
Jones questions the sustainability of the protest movement, noting that the Sudan Revolutionary Front rebels from "starved" Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile State, may not have the patience for negotiations, and may settle for immediate material concessions. This could benefit the transitional military council (TMC), who may buy-off their critics with Saudi and Emirati money, and scapegoat demonstrators for increasing the economic crisis.
Jones also highlights the power-struggle among Sudan's ruling security apparatus, a legacy of Omar Al Bashir's divide-and-rule strategy to mitigate the risks of a coup. The Sudanese army's reliance on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia has empowered RSF Commander and current transitional military council (TMC) deputy Himedti, and hampered the autonomy of TMC chief Abdelfattah Al Burhan.