SUMMARY

Part 1 - War: The Sudanese army repelled the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militias attacks in Khartoum, with confidence that the army may turn the tide in its favour in Khartoum, Al-Jazira and the rest of Sudan should it emerge victorious over the militia in North Darfur. The RSF however seized the capital of West Kordofan state. Amid ongoing accusations of genocide in Al-Fashir, preventative solutions have been directed towards the international community.

Part 2 - Humanitarian: In the absence of a formal famine declaration, famine has already been reported in RSF-controlled Darfur. We identified five contributing factors to the famine in Sudan and four proposed solutions to mitigate it. Meanwhile, refugees fleeing the violence encounter further hardship in neighbouring countries.

Part 3 - Diplomacy: Sudan accused the UAE of supporting the RSF militia and using its influence to hinder UN Security Council discussions while the world’s response to the Sudanese crisis has been hampered by racism, the 'both sides' narrative, and “numbing”.

PART 1: WAR REPORT

· The Sudanese army repelled the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia’s attempt to take the strategic Armoured Corps base in Khartoum, while the RSF continued shelling civilian areas in Omdurman, including a hospital, killing three and injuring 27.

· While the army made an advance in Al-Jazira, the RSF took the capital of West Kordofan state – Al-Fula.

· As the army rejects peace talks, military sources and experts predict army advances Khartoum and Al-Jazira states, with a victory on the Sudanese-Libyan-Chad border in North Darfur having the potential to severely weaken the militia across Sudan.

· Reports continue emerge of the RSF’s use of mercenaries from neighbouring countries.

· The RSF continues to be accused of genocide in Al-Fashir, resulting in a worsening humanitarian crisis, with calls for a UN-African Union civilian protection mission and pressure on the UAE for its support of the RSF.

1. Battle for Khartoum

· In the Battle for Khartoum, the army fended off the RSF in a key army base south of Khartoum city and its assistant commander-in-chief expressed confidence in advance to its General Command headquarters.

· In the city of Omdurman, however, the RSF continues to shell civilian sites, including Al-Naw Hospital where three were killed and 27 were injured.

Army victory in Khartoum

The army announced a decisive victory over RSF militants aiming to seize the Armoured Corps (silaah al-mudara’at) base south of Khartoum in Al-Shajara military district (Sudan Tribune, 17 June). A senior army source told Mada Masr (21 June) that that the RSF’s media footage of its attack highlighted issues including ammunition shortages, poor combat tactics and an insufficient number of RPG-armed soldiers needed for an assault on a military camp.

Since August 2023, the RSF has repeatedly failed in its efforts to capture the Armoured Corps, a critical asset for the Sudanese military. Their most recent attempt resulted in a strike by the SAF, routing the RSF and inflicting heavy casualties. The army has also gone on the offensive in the southern belt of Khartoum, where hostilities resumed after a two-month lull. Eyewitnesses reported drones and heavy artillery pounding RSF camps in the Sports City and surrounding areas (Sudan Tribune, 17 June). In a sign of confidence in the Battle for Khartoum, the army’s Assistant Commander-in-Chief Yassir al-Atta promised that the army will reach its General Command headquarters in due course (Mada Masr, 21 June).

Omdurman

Nonetheless, the RSF are continuing to target areas of northern Omdurman totally under army control, particularly the Karari locality. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) announced the death of three people, including a volunteer, and the injury of 27 others following intense artillery shelling by the RSF that struck al-Naw Hospital in Omdurman. The hospital has been continually targeted by the militia, which is continuing to shell civilian cites in nearby Al-Thawra neighbours which received those displaced from Khartoum and Bahri.

Among those killed in the RSF’s attack on another hospital was Sharaf Abu Al-Majd of the pro-democracy Ghadboun group, known for his active participation in anti-military coup protests, who was working as a volunteer at the hospital for months by the time of his killing (Sudan Tribune, 19 June).

2. Army gains in Al-Jazira

In Al-Jazira State in central Sudan, the military recaptured the town of Huda in the Managil locality. Since December 18, the RSF has maintained control over Al-Jazira’s capital, Wad Madani, and later extended its presence to various villages. Since April, however, the military has been amassing troops to retake the state along three axes, and it has received substantial reinforcements (Mada Masr, 21 June).

3. Growing army confidence

· With the army rejecting peace talks, military sources and experts express confidence that the army will outmanoeuvre the RSF and make advances in Khartoum and Al-Jazira states.

· An army and allied victory on the Sudanese-Libyan-Chad border has the potential to cut off key RSF supply routes and weaken the militia across multiple fronts.

Army rejects peace talks

In a rejection of peace talks, Yassir al-Atta, the Sudanese army’s Assistant Commander-in-Chief, said: “we will not postpone the war by concluding a truce and conducting negotiations, only for the war to return (again) after a year or two”. Al-Atta, who leads military operations in Khartoum, told his troops to ignore rumours about the resumption of negations, stressing: “true peace will be achieved through the defeat and surrender of the Janjaweed, the return of foreign Arabs to their countries of origin,” while emphasising the need to distinguish between the Darfur Arab tribes and the RSF (Sudan Tribune, 17 June).

After RSF militants failed to seize the Armoured Corps, there is reason to believe that the army is confident that it can defeat the militia militarily, with Al-Atta also promising that the army will reach its General Command HQ in Khartoum in due course.

Army confidence: Khartoum

A senior military officer told Mada Masr (21 June) that the army’s capabilities have improved since the start of the war and that it is poised to retake the military’s General Command HQ given the favourable outcomes of the military’s siege strategy around Khartoum in recent months. The strategy has reportedly significantly disrupted RSF supply operations and lowered its troops’ morale, especially after the defeats they suffered in al-Fasher and Darfur at large.

Army confidence: al-Jazira

In Al-Jazira state, military experts anticipate a simultaneous offensive across Al-Jazira’s fronts. A field source told Mada Masr (21 June) that the military believes that the advances will be easier than expected, explaining that the onset of the rain season is likely to aid operations, as the RSF is expected to regroup in more accessible areas near supply points, facilitating confrontation.

The importance of the North Darfur desert war

Furthermore, a victory for the Joint Forces – the army and allied armed movements - in the North Darfur desert war along the Sudanese-Libyan-Chadian border has the potential to cut off the RSF’s military supplies, deplete their resources and affect their capabilities on multiple fronts across Sudan (Mada Masr, 21 June).

4. RSF take Al-Fula, West Kordofan

The RSF announced the capture of al-Fula, the capital of West Kordofan state, after the Sudanese army withdrew from its defensive positions and headquarters

a significant number of residents fled to neighbouring areas. The RSF reportedly engaged in looting in several neighbourhoods, including Al-Salam, Al-Wahda, and Al-Daraja, prompting residents to flee towards the city centre or to neighbouring localities like Al-Odaiya and Al-Nuhud. A volunteer from the El Fula Emergency Room estimated that over 60% of the city’s population had fled shortly after the RSF’s arrival. Al-Fula had previously taken in displaced individuals from the city of Babanusa and was sheltering approximately 1,618 displaced people, including 324 children and 714 women (Sudan Tribune, 20 June).

A video released by RSF fighters after the capture of Al-Fula also showed an Ethiopian raising his country’s flag (Sudan Tribune, 21 June), which brings us onto the RSF’s use of foreign mercenaries.

5. RSF foreign mercenaries

Reports continue to emerge of the RSF’s use of foreign mercenaries from Sudan’s neighbours including the Ethiopia, South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR).

Ethiopian mercenaries

Sudanese authorities captured six Ethiopian women in the eastern state of Al-Gadarif bordering Ethiopia who are accused of serving as RSF snipers. Sources revealed to Sudan Tribune (21 June) that the women had been operating within the RSF for over a year, leveraging their specialized sniping expertise gained in Ethiopia

Their alleged involvement in operations against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and security agencies is supported by images of military engagements and weaponry found on their phones. A video released by RSF fighters after the capture of Al-Fula also showed an Ethiopian raising his country’s flag.

South Sudanese mercenaries

Sudan Tribune (21 June) also noted that South Sudanese nationals were caught fighting alongside the RSF in Khartoum, which was reported on in March 2024. We also covered the RSF’s use of South Sudanese mercenaries in last week’s report, citing Mada Masr (7 June).

Central African Republic mercenaries

A report published by UN experts revealed how the militia are using the Am Dafok area on the Sudan-CAR border "as a key logistical hub,” with the RSF recruiting from armed rebel groups in the CAR – particularly the Popular Front since as early as August 2023 – because the militia can "move between the two countries easily through a long-standing network” (AFP, 14 June).

6. North Darfur desert war

The war in Sudan has entered a new phase as it expands into the desert regions along the Sudanese-Libyan-Chadian border, in a “desert war” over supply routes crossing through the Zurug and Wadi Ambar areas (Mada Masr, 21 June). Zurug in particularly has seen fierce clashes erupt between the RSF and the Joint Forces (the army and allied armed movements) in an extension of the fighting in Al-Fashir. With a Joint Forces official accusing the militia of burning villages near the town, it is

strategic RSF base given that it is a vital supply hub for the militia from Libya (Sudan Tribune, 17 June).

The Sudan-Libya-Chad border region in North Darfur is critical for the RSF’s operations, as it means dominance over fuel smuggling routes from Libya. The militia has also transformed its dominance over these routes into revenue sources and used it to establish networks across central and western Africa. Thus, these battles are crucial as they aim to cut off the RSF’s military supplies, depleting their resources and affecting their capabilities on multiple fronts across Sudan. However, a military source warned that this may lead the militia to launch suicidal offensives to gain control of strategic areas for loot or political leverage, especially since it does not employ defensive tactics (Mada Masr, 21 June).

7. Al-Fashir

· The RSF is accused of genocide in Al-Fashir targeting Darfur’s non-Arab population, with the current atrocities described as worse than the Janjaweed’s ethnic slaughter of the early 2000s.

· The death toll in Al-Fashir continues to rise amid ongoing fighting between the RSF and the Joint Forces (the army and allied armed movements).

· The humanitarian situation continues to worsen, with an inability to access food, water or healthcare.

· Solutions for Al-Fashir centred around calls for a UN-African Union civilian protection mission and for international pressure on the UAE which is accused of supporting the RSF.

RSF genocide in Al-Fashir

The RSF militia continue to be accused of genocide in Al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur state which remains last remaining of the regions five capitals not to have fallen to the RSF. The New York Times (19 June) warn that if the city falls to the militia, “what had largely been a military clash could descend into ethnic slaughter like the violence Darfur endured in the early 2000s, when the Janjaweed, who are Arab, set upon ethnic Africans,” with the UN estimating that 300,000 were killed in the genocide. Highlight the RSF’s “systematic dehumanization” against non-Arabs in Darfur, Sudanese lawyer and legal advisor Mutasim Ali said the RSF is a “rebranded” Janjaweed with the same commanders, ethnic tribes and victim groups, albeit with sophisticated technology and weaponry due to “significant [UAE] support” (CNN, 14 June).

Nonetheless, the current RSF atrocities in Darfur are unprecedented in Sudan’s history, according to Omer Ismail, an acting foreign minister during the transitional period (2019-21) and now a researcher for the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab. The militia has been “systematically destroying civilian dwellings” in areas that have a significant population of the (non-Arab) Zaghawa tribe according to the lab. Centre for Information Resilience open-source investigator Mark Snoeck said over 50 settlements have burned repeatedly, suggesting “intent” and possible forced displacement (NBC, 16 June).

The militia’s genocidal ethnic cleansing campaign in Al-Fashir has been identified as a “scorched earth strategy”. Hager Ali, a researcher at the German think-tank GIGA Institute for Global and Area Studies, defined this as the destruction of important agricultural goods, razing villages, the systematic killing of non-Arab minorities, widespread sexual violence against women, with the aim of ensuring that "even when [the RSF] retreat, [their] enemy has absolutely nothing to gain” (DW, 19 June).

Rising death toll

The death toll continues to rise in Al-Fashir amid ongoing fighting between the RSF militia besieging the city, and the Sudanese army and allied groups defending North Darfur’s state capital. The Director General of the Ministry of Health in North Darfur, Ibrahim Abdallah Khater, said least 246 were killed, with 2,182 injured since the conflict erupted on 10 May 2024 (Sudan Tribune, 18 June).

The following day, another 18 were killed in a relentless wave of aerial and artillery bombardments targeting al-Fasher and Kutum in North Darfur state.

The Abu Shouk camp for displaced people in Al-Fashir bore the brunt of the RSF artillery fire, claiming the lives of 14 and leaving 25 injured, including women, children, and the elderly. In Kutum, northwest of al-Fasher, army airstrikes, resulted in the deaths of four civilians. Given that the militia launches attacks on Al-Fashir from Kutum, and that it hosts a medical facility for their wounded, the town is an important strategic location for the RSF (Sudan Tribune, 19 June).

Humanitarian situation in Al-Fashir

The humanitarian situation in Al-Fashir also continues to worsen. The RSF’s seizing of the main highway highway “has largely cut off food” to a Darfur region “already grappling with famine,” with a child dying of malnutrition every two hours at a nearby displacement camp. Medical care is also in short supply in Al-Fashir with hospitals forced to close. The road out is “filled with danger,” with temperatures rising to over 49 celsius, women reporting being sexually assaulted and people finding that food and medicine are in short supply when reaching their destinations (New York Times, 19 June).

Dr. Gillian Burkhardt, who worked with Medicins Sans Frontières (MSF) in Al-Fashir said there is no food or access to healthcare in the city, with her husband, MSF logistics team leader Paul Clarke, saying moving humanitarian supplies into the city is immensely difficult amid the lack of functioning airports meaning that trucks filled with ready-made meals from neighbouring Chad take a month to reach Al-Fashir (NBC, 16 June). Yet the humanitarian situation in Al-Fashir may still get worse, with an anonymous diplomat warned that hundreds of thousands will go without water in Al-Fashir as water stations will stop working if the RSF prevent fuel going in (AFP, 16 June).

8. Solutions for Al-Fashir

To prevent the RSF from completing its genocidal project in Al-Fashir, proposed solutions directed at the international community have revolved around the deployment of a civilian protection mission, and applying pressure on the UAE which is accused of supporting the RSF.

African Union-led civilian protection mechanism

Arguing that “major powers have largely invested in a sham peace process for 14 months that is going nowhere,” international human rights lawyer Yonah Diamond called for the international community, led by the African Union, to deploy a civilian protection mechanism in al-Fashir and to explicitly threaten the UAE with consequences should it fail to restrain the RSF and continue to supply it with heavy weaponry. Diamond added that the US and the UK “have leverage to exert pressure on their ally, the UAE, to end the RSF’s genocidal campaign today” (CNN, 14 June).

Similarly, Mohamed Osman, a researcher for Human Rights Watch’s (HRW) Africa division, called on the UN and AU leadership to examine all possible options and deploy a civilian protection mission to Al-Fashir (HRW, 19 June).

Osman’s colleague Laetitia Bader, HRW’s Deputy Africa Director, also called for the EU to actively voice support for calls for a civilian protection plan and work with the AU, the UN and others — notably the UK and the US - to achieve this. Bader also urged the EU to “act more decisively at the UN, encouraging the three African states on the UN Security Council to work toward deploying such a force” (Euronews, 20 June).

UN Security Council holding the UAE accountable

Osman urged the UN Security Council to act on findings of the UN Panel of Experts on Darfur, including on violations of the UN arms embargo by other countries, notably the UAE (HRW, 19 June).

Bader added that the EU should “press for the full enforcement of the existing UN arms embargo on Darfur, calling out countries such as the UAE violating it, and press for expanding it to all of Sudan” (Euronews, 20 June).

Support ICC investigation

Osman also called on governments to support the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s investigation into apparent war crimes and other atrocities in Darfur (HRW, 19 June).

Support humanitarian aid

Bader called on the EU to provide financial support and call for the protection of Sudanese local responders who are faced with providing civilians with support, food, and medical care (Euronews, 20 June).

PART 2: HUMANITARIAN

This week’s humanitarian report covers the Sudan’s famine and refugee crises.
While no formal famine declaration has been made, reports suggest famine has reached parts of Sudan, particularly in RSF-controlled Darfur. We identified five factors contributing to this crisis: including the conduct of warring parties and the international community’s unfulfilled funding pledges. We also identified four proposed solutions, including those urging the international community to adopt innovative aid strategies.
Sudanese refugees fleeing conflict are facing further humanitarian crises in neighboring countries, including attacks in Ethiopia and unlawful deportations from Egypt, despite their perilous journeys and challenges seeking legal entry.

Famine

· In the absence of a formal famine declaration, there are reports that famine has already reached parts of Sudan, particularly territory held by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in Darfur, with projections that the situation will get worse.

· This report identified five key challenges and contributing factors to the famine: 1) the lack of income, 2) the RSF’s looting of aid and use of starvation as a weapon of war, 3) the army hindering aid access, 4) the water crisis across Sudan and 5) funding pledges that have not materialised.

· Nonetheless, four solutions have been aimed at the international community to mitigate the famine, ranging from applying pressure to take action to adopting innovative strategies to get aid to those who need it.

Bleak famine projections

About 70% of Sudan’s population could be “extremely hungry” by September, potentially leading to 2.5 to 4 million deaths, according to food security expert Timmo Gaasbeek (BBC, 15 June). “About 15% of the population – in Darfur and Kordofan, the hardest-hit regions, could die by the end of September,” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN (AFP, 15 June). Thus, USAID administrator Samantha Power said Sudan could be in worse shape than Somalia in 2011 when 250,000 people died after three consecutive seasons without enough rain, potentially ensuring that “Sudan would become the deadliest famine since Ethiopia in the early 1980s,” Power added (AFP, 15 June).

In the absence of a formal famine declaration, the New York Times (19 June) revealed that famine has already arrived in Darfur. Reuters’ (20 June) investigation identified 14 graveyards expanding fast in Darfur showing how people are dying through starvation and disease. Only satellite images from communities that have not seen fighting in the past six months were reviewed, in order to rule out the possibility that the dead were killed in fighting. Reuters further warn that the situation is about to get worse, as Sudan entered the lean season between harvests where food is less available, and rainy season prevents journeys through roads connecting to urban centres.

Challenge 1: lack of income

Alongside the lack of food in Sudan, the remaining food is “punishingly expensive,” with Amgad Farid of Fikra Studies think-tank highlighting the decline of food imports due to inflation (BBC, 15 June).As per Mohanad Elbalal, the the co-founder of Khartoum Aid Kitchen, a crowdfunded campaign to support community kitchens in Sudan, the lack of income is contributing factor to the unfolding famine (Slate, 19 June). Indeed, a key contributing factor to the lack of income is the inability to work due to a lack of protection from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia.

Challenge 2: the RSF

The RSF is considered a major contributing factor to food insecurity across Sudan, using starvation as a weapon of war in the territory it controls.

Darfur

Famine has already reached the Darfur region, where the RSF militia holds 4 out of 5 state capitals. In South Darfur, residents of Kalma camp for displaced persons are too scared to leave to find work amid the lack of protection from the RSF, with men fearing being killed and women fearing being raped (Reuters, 20 June).

Around Al-Fashir in North Darfur, the RSF’s seizing of the main highway “has largely cut off food” to a Darfur region “already grappling with famine,” with a child dying of malnutrition every two hours at a nearby displacement camp. The road out is “filled with danger,” as temperatures rise to over temperatures rising to over 49 celsius and women report being sexually assaulted (New York Times, 19 June). Meanwhile, in Niertiti camp in Central Darfur, no supplies are getting as the RSF plundered the harvest (Reuters, 20 June).

RSF looting

Various analysts, officials and humanitarian aid workers have attributed the famine to the RSF’s looting, including Elbalal in comments in Slate (19 June). Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation described the RSF as “essentially a looting machine” (BBC, 15 June), noting the militia’s tendency to “[strip] cities and countryside bare of all moveable resources” (Foreign Affairs, 17 June). Furthermore, USAID administrator Samantha Power said the RSF has been “systematically looting humanitarian warehouses, stealing food and livestock, destroying grain storage facilities and wells in the most vulnerable Sudanese communities” (AFP, 15 June).

RSF control of Sudan’s breadbasket – Al-Jazira state

In addition, the RSF’s military victories have also been identified as a contributing factor to the famine, with Amgad Faried citing the RSF’s seizing al-Jazira state “which has the biggest agricultural scheme in Sudan, and produced a lot of our daily needs” (BBC, 15 June). Nonetheless, the army have also been accused of blocking aid access.

Challenge 3: SAF accused of blocking aid access

The army has been accused of preventing aid access into RSF territory for political purposes. Power alleged the army is blocking aid from crossing the border with Chad into Darfur (AFP, 15 June). De Waal claimed that the army is “trying to starve areas under RSF control” (BBC, 15 June), with the aim of turning its fighters against its leader (Foreign Affairs, 17 June).

Jeffrey Feltman, the former US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, blamed the army for the absence of formal famine declaration despite pre-existing “famine-like conditions”. Feltman argued that the downside with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification that officially declares famine is that it requires the cooperation of the Sudanese army, who Feltman said do not want aid to flow into areas controlled by the RSF (Brookings, 20 June). However, De Waal suggests that starvation actually benefits the RSF, as the starving in Darfur are African ethnic groups that the RSF targets for ethnic cleansing (Foreign Affairs, 17 June).

Nonetheless, Khartoum Aid Kitchen co-founder Mohanad Elbalal said the army “doesn’t have an issue” with their kitchens, but the issue in RSF territory is that many community activists who would lead volunteer work are being detained or killed by the militia (Slate, 19 June).

Challenge 4: Water crisis

To worsen matters, a war crisis is enveloping Sudan from east to west, as reported by AFP (16 June). An anonymous diplomat warned that hundreds of thousands will go without water in Al-Fashir as water stations will stop working if the RSF prevent fuel going in. Meanwhile, in Khartoum, entire neighbourhoods have been without water since the war began after the Soba water station – which supplies water to much of the capital – going out of service. People are buying “untreated water off of animal-drawn carts, which they can hardly afford and exposes them to diseases”.

Similarly, in Port Sudan - which depends on one inadequate reservoir - measures to prevent contamination are hindered by displacement with hundreds of thousands fleeing to the city. Thus, cholera has become a “year-round” disease, the diplomat said, noting that the collapse of healthcare in Sudan means that “people are drinking dirty water, they are hungry and will get hungrier, which will kill many, many more”.

Challenge 5: Lack of funding

The lack of funding continues to serve as an obstacle for mitigating Sudan’s food and water crisis. The US announced another $315 million for hungry Sudanese (AFP, 15 June) but this is not considered enough. Justin Brady, head of the UN's humanitarian body (Ocha) in Sudan, said the international community has not provided the funds help those in need (BBC, 15 June).

As noted by Elbalal, the Paris donor conference in April pledged two billion euros for Sudan, but “there’s a difference between a pledge and actual donations arriving,” adding that only 15.8% of the $2.4 billion needed for Sudan’s humanitarian plan has been funded (Slate, 19 June).

Famine Solutions

Proposed solutions to mitigate the famine in Sudan have been directed towards the international community, including apply pressure on donors and states with influence over the warring parties, alongside innovative strategies to meet humanitarian demand.

Pressure international community to meet pledges

Mohanad Elbalal, the co-founder of Khartoum Aid Kitchen, suggested that pressure on the international community to meet the pledges to alleviate Sudan’s humanitarian crisis “would go a long way to actually helping Sudanese people” (Slate, 19 June).

UAE and Saudi leverage

Suggesting the UAE and Saudi Arabia have leverage over the warring parties in Sudan, Alex De Waal calls for the US and western allies to pressure the UAE and Saudi Arabia to lead on getting food aid to starving Sudanese. Yet. despite the Gulf states’ leverage, De Waal attributes their failure to “seriously engage” with the Sudan crisis to the Saudis not wanting the UAE to participate in their peace talks, and the UAE not wanting Saudis to get credit for a peace deal (Foreign Affairs, 17 June).

Recognising Sudan’s division

To overcome access limitations facing aid organisations, and with territory in Sudan divided between the army and RSF, ex-US Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman proposed recognising that Sudan is divided under at least two separate authorities, with agencies dividing which part of the country they work in (Brookings, 20 June).

Flexibility in aid grants

Feltman also called for flexibility in how assistance is delivered, noting that local emergency response rooms “are not people who can apply for aid grants” as “bureaucracies often are not fit to the purpose,” before suggesting “we need to take more risks in how we get assistance into the hands of those who are who are actually delivering” (Brookings, 20 June).

2. Refugees

· Sudanese refugees in neighbouring countries Libya, Ethiopia and Egypt are unable to escape humanitarian crises.

· In Ethiopia, refugees that left war-torn Sudan are under attack from a militia in north-western Ethiopia’s Awlala forest, with a woman being shot dead last week.

· Despite the perilous journeys they undertake to seek refuge, and the challenges they face seeking legal entry, Sudanese refugees are being unlawfully deported from Egypt as per Amnesty International, who also proposed a solution to avert further humanitarian suffering.

Sudanese refugees in Libya

Over 40,000 Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers have arrived in Libya following outbreak of conflict in Sudan, the United Nations said. A statement from the UN World Food Programme (WFP) also warned of an impending humanitarian disaster if aid is not urgently provided to those in need. The estimated total number of Sudanese refugees in Libya’s Kufra city is 45,000. Authorities, however, say it is difficult to know the exact number of these displaced people due to the continuing waves of people coming from war-torn Sudan (Sudan Tribune, 17 June).

Sudanese refugees in Ethiopa

Sudanese refugees in Ethiopia continue to face the risk of death and armed attacks by Fano militants targeting them inside the Awlala forest in the Amhara region of north-western Ethiopia, which houses around 6,000 Sudanese refugees.

A Sudanese woman was killed by the Fano militia in the Awlala camp, in an attack that while a group of Sudanese women were fetching water from a well near the camp. Eight other women were injured in the attack, which involved heavy gunfire. Around 1,700 cases of assault, looting, and theft against Sudanese refugees have been reported in the area. Multiple sources have confirmed to Sudan Tribune that Ethiopian authorities have lost control over the area, leaving it vulnerable to lawlessness and violence perpetrated by Fano militias (Sudan Tribune, 18 June).

Sudanese refugees in Egypt

Despite Sudanese taking life-risking journey to seek refuge in Egypt, they are being returned to danger in Sudan in deportations that Amnesty International says are unlawful. We explored the context behind the Egypt’s restrictions of Sudanese refugees, and the challenges that prevent Sudanese refugees from entering Egypt legally, concluding with a solution proposed by Amnesty International.

Sudanese refugees being returned to war-torn Sudan

According to Amnesty International, Egyptian authorities have used EU-funded security forces in a campaign of mass arrests and forcible deportations against refugees from the Sudan war (Guardian, 19 June). Around 500,000 Sudanese refugees are estimated to have fled to Egypt after the armed conflict erupted in Sudan in April 2023 (Amnesty, 19 June), about 24% of the total who left Sudan, according to the UN’s International Organisation for Migration (Reuters, 19 June).

Amnesty (19 June), published a report entitled, “Handcuffed like dangerous criminals”: Arbitrary detention and forced returns of Sudanese refugees in Egypt, which reveals how Sudanese refugees are rounded up and unlawfully deported to Sudan without due process or opportunity to claim asylum in flagrant violation of international law. The report’s findings were summarised in a Guardian (19 June) article, which included:

· Amnesty found that Egypt “forcibly returned an estimated 800 Sudanese detainees between January and March 2024, who were all denied the possibility to claim asylum”

· Amnesty said a campaign of mass arrests in Cairo and neighbouring Giza, where police have “conducted mass stops and identity checks targeting black individuals, spreading fear within the refugee community”.

· Amnesty documented 14 arrests of refugees from public hospitals in Aswan.

· People were held in makeshift detention facilities run by Egyptian border guards, a force that has received extensive EU funding.

· Refugees, including at least 11 children and their mothers, were taken to filthy warehouses or stables at military sites before being “forced into buses and vans and driven to the Sudanese border”.

The context of Egypt’s restrictions

A month after the war erupted in Sudan, the Egyptian government introduced a visa entry requirement for all Sudanese nationals (Amnesty, 19 June). According to Reuters (19 June), the mass arrival of Sudanese led to occasional tensions, with some Egyptians blaming Sudanese and other foreigners for pushing up rental prices, and Egyptian TV commentators citing the "burden" of millions of migrants at a time of high inflation and economic pressures. After Egypt's foreign currency shortage worsened last year many Africans arrested for not having valid papers were held in squalid conditions and asked to pay fees in dollars to avoid deportation, according to lawyers and witnesses.

With EU-funded security forces being used in a campaign of mass arrests and forcible deportations against Sudanese refugees (Guardian, 19 June), Reuters also note that “European states see Egypt as playing an important role in preventing mass migration across the Mediterranean” (Reuters, 19 June).

Challenges for Sudanese asylum seekers in Egypt

As noted by Amnesty (19 June), the Egyptian visa entry requirements leaves Sudanese fleeing with little choice but to escape through irregular border crossings. Radio Dabanga (18 June) noted the bureaucratic challenges to entering Egypt legally, seen as a “deliberate attempt to limit the influx of Sudanese refugees”:

· Obtaining security approval for entry into Egypt is financially burdensome for many Sudanese given the obligation to use EgyptAir to reach Egypt via Cairo Airport, which is unsuitable for those arriving by land.

· While registration with the UNHCR theoretically prevents deportation, long waiting periods, sometimes exceeding five months, complicate this.

· Another issue is the 960km distance between Aswan and Cairo, where the UNHCR headquarters are located, as Sudanese arriving through Aswan may be stopped and asked for entry visas before reaching Cairo.

Radio Dabanga have also continued reporting on the risks that Sudanese are enduring in their attempts to find refuge in Egypt, having last week covered 25 to 50 Sudanese dying on the road to Egypt from scorching heat (Radio Dabanga, 11 June). Indeed, Egyptian authorities deported hundreds back to Sudan who had reached Aswan facing harsh humanitarian conditions during the journey, with high temperatures and insufficient food and drink exacerbating their suffering, with many having chronic diseases (Radio Dabanga, 18 June).

Solution

Amnesty International (19 June) call for Egyptian authorities to immediately cease the mass arbitrary arrests and unlawful deportations of Sudanese refugees who had crossed the border into Egypt seeking refuge from the conflict in Sudan, suggesting that rounding up and deportation of Sudanese refugees was without due process or opportunity to claim asylum is a “flagrant violation of international law”.

PART 3: DIPLOMACY

· In this week’s diplomacy developments, Sudan’s ambassador to the UN provided evidence in accusing the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia at a UN Security Council session.

· There were also reports of the UAE using its influence over UN Security Council members to prevent Sudan’s grievances being discussed.

· The UN Security Council’s resolution to end the RSF’s siege on Al-Fashir was criticised for coming too late and not calling out the UAE.

· Analysts downplayed the impact of Sudan’s weapons agreement with Russia.

· Racism, the both sides narrative and physical numbing have been argued to be factors for the world “overlooking” Sudan’s crisis.

Sudan confronts the UAE at the UN security council

Multiple sources (18 June) reported that, in a UN Security Council (UNSC) session, Sudan’s ambassador to the UN, Al-Harith Idriss, accused the UAE of providing weapons to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia. "The military aggression launched by the RSF, supported with weapons by the Emirates, is deliberately and systematically targeting the villages and cities," Idriss said.

"The UAE must stay away from Sudan! That is the first requirement that will allow for stability in Sudan. It must stop its support,” Idriss added.

Idriss accused the UAE of assisting RSF forces through militias in Chad, southern Libya and central Africa, adding that Sudan has submitted copies of a half dozen UAE passports found on the battlefield in Khartoum to the council to back up their claims of Emirati interference. He also said that wounded RSF fighters are being airlifted to Dubai for medical treatment.

Idriss further accused on the UAE of using its influence on the UNSC to avoid accountability for supporting the militia. As reported by PassBlue (15 June), a woman-led media company covering the UN, when the UAE was an elected member of the UNSC from January 2022 to December 2023 it “kept Sudan off the agenda”. Sudan’s requests for open emergency meetings in April and May 2024 were rebuffed by monthly rotating presidents Malta and Mozambique respectively, who held private consultations meaning Idriss could not participate.

Malta said it was because the Sudanese ambassador sent his request in Arabic. PassBlue note that the UNSC has no written rule on language requirements. Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Africa Programme, said: “we have underestimated the destructive and irresponsible power of the UAE [who] used the fact that it controls five major ports in Mozambique to make sure that Mozambique did not host a meeting investigating allegations against the UAE.”

Criticism of the UN Security Council resolution

PassBlue’s (15 June) article carried criticisms of the UN Security Council resolution to end the RSF siege on al-Fashir. Cameron Hudson said it “comes much too late to save many [who have and] will die because of the existing conditions.” PassBlue noted that the resolution did not call out the UAE, who Sudan’s government say has provided weapons used to displace and kill predominantly non-Arab groups and rape hundreds of women.

Russia

DW’s (16 June) feature piece on Sudan’s agreement to allow Russia to build a naval base on the Red Sea in exchange for weapons carried insights from analysts who expressed uncertainty that the Sudanese army will get the support it seeks.

Political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Grüder from the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies said it is unknown what weapons Russia has offered, noting Russian skepticism when the Sudanese army previously wanted fighter aircraft and air defence missiles.

Hager Ali of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies said “Russia holds good card in the negotiations,” as “the longer the conflict lasts, the more weapons [the army] needs. That is particularly true of the Sudanese air force, which has to operate in remote regions”. Ali adds that the same applies to diesel fuel, which has long been in short supply, noting that Russia may now deliver it through its base in Sudan rather than through Chad via the Wagner militia.

The global neglect of Sudan

In this week’s analysis, various factors were provided for why Sudan’s war is being “overlooked”, ranging from numbing to racism to the “both sides narrative”.

Physic numbing

Melissa Fleming, the under-secretary-general for global communications at the UN, attributed the lack of attention to psychic numbing," which refers to “the sad reality that people feel more apathetic towards a tragedy as the number of victims increases”. DW (14 June) add that “research has previously shown that civil wars — especially those seen as internal matters in a faraway country — get less attention than conflicts where one country attacks another”.

Racism

Mohanad Elbalal, the co-founder of Khartoum Aid Kitchen, a crowdfunded campaign to support community kitchens in Sudan,” told Slate (19 June) “there’s a feeling that prejudices – [that this is just Africans killing Africans] might lead people to care less” about Sudan. Similarly, Sudan expert Roman Deckert noted “a deeply ingrained, potentially even subconscious, racism or Eurocentrism…where outsiders incorrectly perceive the fighting as somehow ‘uncivilized’ or ‘typical’".

“Both sides narrative”

In addition, Deckert attributed the lack of attention on Sudan to the “complexity of the situation, where neither side is obviously ‘good or evil’" (DW, 14 June).