Executive summary

1. Analysis: four key challenges facing the army in its attempts to resist the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia’s advances and regain lost territory.

2. Battle of Sennar: the RSF's abuses in Sennar are causing widespread displacement, with signs of attempted forced demographic changes through the use of starvation as a weapon of war.

3. Battle of Khartoum: limited skirmishes continue in the contested state of Khartoum, as the army took measures to prevent the RSF’s use of foreign mercenaries.

4. RSF drone campaign: the militia continued its campaign of drone strikes targeting areas outside of its control, with attacks on northern, eastern and southern Sudan.

5. Al-Jazirah state: In the RSF’s ongoing campaign of abuse targeting civilians of Al-Jazirah state, the militia has started an extortion racket whereby the RSF – known for looting – asks citizens to pay fees for protection from looting.

6. North Kordofan massacre: 23 civilians were killed in a massacre on a convoy attempting to reach a market.

7. Darfur: Battles are ongoing in Al-Fashir, while civilian casualties have occurred in army strikes targeting RSF positions in RSF-held parts of Darfur.

1. Analysis: Challenges facing the army

The RSF’s growing control of Sennar state has major implications for war due to Sennar’s strategic location bordering multiple states and South Sudan, and its significant agricultural production.
In tandem with the RSF’s advances in West Kordofan, the militia is solidifying its position on the Sudan-South Sudan border, thus increasing its access to supply routes.
This is compounded by the army’s inability to control the militia’s western supply outlets from Chad and the Central African Republic.
The army's planned counteroffensive faces challenges due to equipment shortages and disruptions to its supply lines, thus hindering its efforts to resist RSF advances.

RSF control of Sennar

As noted last week, the RSF militia’s advances in Sennar state have vital ramifications in the context of the war in Sudan. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED, 12 July), “the fall of Sennar cannot be overstated” given that the state borders four other states, in addition to sharing a border with South Sudan and Ethiopia, and contributes significantly to Sudan’s agricultural production.

In their monthly report on the war in Sudan, ACLED re-capped the militia’s advances in Sennar, starting in Jabal Moya, a mountain range situated at the border between al-Jazirah and Sennar states. “The RSF’s control of Jabal Moya was the tipping point of the army’s collapse in Sennar state,” ACLED said.

On 29 June, the RSF — led by Abu Aqlah Keikel, the commander who led the offensive taking Al-Jazirah state within a week — advanced from Jabal Moya and attacked Sinjah city, south of Sennar city. With the army withdrawing from its bases in Sinjah by 1 July, the RSF was able to gain control over the army bases in other localities in Sennar, such as al-Mazmoum, al-Suki, Wad al-Nile, and Dinder. The loss of the latter forced the army and its allies to withdraw to Al-Gadarif state, east of Sennar.

ACLED predict that the militia may siege Sennar city from all directions should its next advances come north of Dinder city and south from al-Jazirah state into the east of Sennar city. Should the city of Sennar fall - and by extension, the state of Sennar - the White Nile and Blue Nile states will be isolated from other army-controlled areas, potentially culminating in the RSF opening multiple frontlines in White Nile and Al-Gadarif or advancing south towards the Blue Nile state.

Furthermore, military expert told Mada Masr (12 July) on condition of anonymity that the RSF’s advance in Sennar could open new avenues for supplies and the involvement of more foreign mercenaries due to the regions’ delicate security, the presence of armed gangs and weapon trafficking.

RSF access to South Sudan border

As noted last week, the militia’s advances in Sennar and West Kordofan strengthened its position across the Sudan-South Sudan border, thereby increasing access to new supply routes to South Sudan.

In Sennar, the militia now has a secure route through al-Mazmoum city to South Sudan from which it allegedly gets fuel, ammunition, and weapons supplies. In addition, the militia’s control of al-Meiram city in West Kordofan state gives it another vital supply route with South Sudan that further solidifies its strategic position in the state, given that the city is located approximately 60km north of South Sudan (ACLED, 12 July).

Nonetheless, the army maintains control over key military bases in West Kordodan. Alongside retaining the 22nd Division camp in Babanusa, the army also has bases in crucial areas such as al-Nuhud city, where it has amassed substantial forces, including army troops, popular resistance forces, and allied tribal militias (Mada Masr, 12 July)

RSF western supply routes

The RSF’s securing of supply routes south of Sudan are compounded by the army’s inability to control the militia’s supply outlets from Chad and the Central African Republic to the west and south-west of Sudan respectively. However, according to sources within Sudan’s ruling sovereign council, the army’s commander-in-chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan met with top military commanders in Omdurman to discuss alternative military strategies to counter the RSF and cut off its western supply routes. The army is also reportedly preparing for a counteroffensive targeting the RSF’s rear lines, which secure their supply routes (Mada Masr, 12 July).

Army counteroffensive hindered by lack of equipment

However, the army’s planned counteroffensive faces significant obstacles to with regards to obtaining necessary equipment.

RSF gains in Khartoum in August 2023 have disrupted Sudan’s arms industry, following the loss of Al-Yarmouk Military Industrial Complex in al-Shagara military area. Thus, Mada Masr’s (12 July) sovereign council sources say it has been difficult for the army to obtain ammunition and maintenance equipment for its vital assets. The obstacle posed to a counteroffensive by the lack of necessary equipment is subsequently exacerbated by challenges getting pre-existing equipment to the frontlines. Mada Masr’s source said that while the army is working to secure alternative supply lines to support its ongoing operations, the RSF and their backers are obstructing the arrival of military shipments.

The obstacles confronting army counteroffensives also culminate in public questioning of the army’s ability to resist RSF advances. Particularly following the army’s withdrawal from Al-Jazirah state at the end of 2023, the army’s withdrawals in West Kordofan and Sennar strengthened the RSF militia’s positions across the Sudan-South Sudan border (ACLED, 12 July).

2. The Battle of Sennar

· The RSF’s advances in Sennar state are leading to massive displacement, with over 100,000 citizens fleeing to army-controlled areas.

· The militia’s campaign of abuses in Al-Dinder shows hints of attempted forced demographic change. Alongside mass killing, the militia is seizing equipment necessary for food production and giving it to its tribal base in Sennar.

· Nonetheless, the army has targeted RSF positions in Sennar.

Displacement due to RSF abuses

With the RSF’s advances in Sennar triggered a waves of displacement in the hundreds of the thousands, the majority of civilians fled to army-controlled areas in Al-Gadarif and the Blue Nile states, with the militia looting civilians’ properties (ACLED, 12 July). Over 100,000 displaced individuals from Al-Dinder and Sinjah in Sennar state arrived in Al-Gadarif over the past week as they were forced to flee the RSF’s takeover of those areas (Sudan Tribune, 11 July). Reports have emerged of the militia’s campaign of abuses in Al-Dinder specifically.

RSF abuses in Al-Dinder

Al-Dinder Emergency Room said the militia destroyed a university college, assassinated five civilians, and injured dozens in an attack on surrounding villages.

The local volunteer group stressed that that the RSF’s ongoing campaign of violence, marked by the invasion of peaceful villages, terrorising and killing of residents, and forced displacement of those remaining, “clearly demonstrates that this is a war waged against civilians, not the army” (Sudan Tribune, 9 July).

The militia also attempted an incursion into Al-Dinder’s National Park, one of Africa’s most significant wildlife reserves which hosts rare species. While the wildlife police thwarted the attack, police forces in the park lack sufficient equipment to protect it from future attacks (Mada Masr, 12 July).

Forced demographic change

The RSF militia is simultaneously attempting to starve the civilians of Al-Dinder, while empowering its Rizeigat tribal base (Sudan Tribune, 14 July). As reportedly by Al-Dinder’s Emergency Room, the militia is seizing agricultural equipment, seeds, and fertilisers from villages in the region through intimidation, beatings, and killings,” raising concerns about the potential failure of the upcoming agricultural season

The Emergency Room added that an estimated 200 tractors seized by the militia are being stored in the villages of Al-Farish and Kamrab west of Al-Dinder which are primarily inhabited by members of the Rizeigat tribe, the same tribe from which many RSF leaders and soldiers hail. They also claim that Kamrab and Al-Farish have become operational bases for the RSF, used for launching raids and storing stolen goods from Al-Dinder and its surrounding villages.

The army’s resistance in Sennar

Mada Masr (12 July) reported on the army’s attempts to deplete the RSF’s resources as the militia attempts to expand in Sennar following its capture of state capital Singa last week. This included:

· Ongoing battles in southeast Sennar’s Dinder region, which is located near Sudan’s border with Ethiopia.

· The army’s Air Force conducted intense barrel bomb strikes on RSF gatherings in west Sennar’s strategic Jabal Moya, causing substantial casualties and equipment losses.

· Limited skirmishes at the Doba bridge, northeast of Sennar, where the army maintains control over the area which secures Sennar city’s eastern villages and the route to al-Gadarif state.

3. The Battle of Khartoum

· Limited skirmishes continue in the contested state of Khartoum.

· In attempt to restrict the RSF’s use of foreign mercenaries, Khartoum state authorities ordered the exit of all foreigners.

Skirmishes in Khartoum

Limited skirmishes continue across Sudan’s tri-city capital, Khartoum, with Mada Masr (12 July) reporting that:

· In Omdurman, there were clashes in Ombada and neighborhoods west of Omdurman, where the military secured significant gains last week. The RSF also launched heavy artillery strikes at al-Thawra neighborhoods north of Omdurman. In addition, one civilian was killed and six were injured as the RSF shelled residential areas in the city

· In Bahri, northern Khartoum, the army said its forces at the Hatab operational base destroyed an RSF fuel tanker and several military vehicles, and captured three fully-equipped vehicles.

The army controls the Karari locality and some neighbourhoods of old Omdurman, while Khartoum and Khartoum Bahri are mostly under the control of the RSF with the exception of army bases and its general command headquarters (Sudan Tribune, 11 July).

Measures to restrict mercenary activity

Amid the RSF’s use of mercenaries from Ethiopia, South Sudan, Chad, Mali, and Niger for sniping and artillery shelling, authorities in Khartoum state issued a two-week deadline for foreign nationals to leave Khartoum. The RSF’s use of mercenaries triggered increased suspicion of foreigners. Colonel Nazar Khalil, director of the foreigners and immigration control department in Khartoum state said the decision aims to safeguard the lives of foreign nationals in Khartoum (Sudan Tribune, 11 July)

4. RSF drone campaign

· The RSF continues its campaign of drone strikes targeting areas outside of its control, with attacks on Shendi in the River Nile state northern Sudan, Al-Gadarif state in eastern Sudan and the White Nile state in southern Sudan.

· Back in April 2024 – during the month of Ramadan - the militia launched drone attacks on Al-Gadarif, alongside killing more than ten in Atbarah in the River Nile state. Similar drone attacks occurred in Merowe in the Northern state and Sennar city (Sudan Tribune, 12 July).

Shendi

The army’s ground defenses in the Third Infantry Division intercepted drone attacks targeting Shendi in the early hours of 10 July. Eyewitnesses said there were no casualties (Mada Masr, 12 July).

Al-Gadarif

Two civilians were injured in an RSF drone attack targeting Al-Gadarif state government headquarters during a public gathering held in support of the army. The drones missed their target and crashed near a women’s and maternity hospital and Al-Sadaqa neighbourhood. The drones were flown from within Al-Gadarif and a suspect was arrested. Al-Gadarif remains vulnerable to RSF incursions given its proximity to Al-Jazirah and Sennar states, where the militia has a presence. A drone previously struck the General Intelligence Service headquarters and other government buildings on 9 April (Sudan Tribune, 11 July)

White Nile

The RSF launched its second drone attack on the White Nile state, utilising four unmanned aerial vehicles to target military sites. The army’s air forces shot down an RSF drone targeting the headquarters of the army’s 18th Division in Kosti. Then, the army’s ground defences intercepted and shot down drones targeting the city of Rabak and the Kenana air base. Sources indicated that the latest drones used appeared different from those previously used, both in the sound of their flight and their increased speed (Sudan Tribune, 12 July).

5. Al-Jazirah state

· Since the RSF militia seized control of Al-Jazirah state in December 2023, the militia instantly began to commit horrific abuses against its residents, including fighting, kidnapping, sexual violence, forced displacement, looting, humiliation, and intimidation (Sudan Tribune, 11 July).

· This week, there are reports of attacks in Abu Quota city, a major centre for thousands of farmers who grow wheat, cotton, peanuts, and vegetables on lands belonging to the Jazirah scheme.

· The militia has started an extortion campaign targeting Abu Quota residents.

Village attacks

The RSF has been continuously attacking villages and the city of Abu Qouta, a major centre for thousands of farmers who grow wheat, cotton, peanuts, and vegetables on lands belonging to the Al Jazirah schema. On 9 July, the militia attacked the village of Al-Ghadir, affiliated with Abu Qouta. Residents who resisted the militia’s looting were shot at, resulting in several injuries.

Extortion

The RSF is imposing daily fees ranging from $30-$40 USD on residents of Abu Qouta, claiming that it is for protection against looting, say the city’s local Resistance Committees. The committees indicated that the RSF threatened to “withdraw protection” from the city if the amount could not be paid. Abu Qouta Resistance committees stressed that all aspects of life in the area have ceased, with the market closed, cash unavailable, and a severe shortage of food and medicine.

6. North Kordofan massacre

At least 23 civilians were killed in an RSF massacre in North Kordofan state after the militia opened fire on a convoy from the village of Fanquqa travelling to Umm Sumaima market (Sudan Tribune, 14 July).

The RSF has held control over most of North Kordofan since the early stages of the war and faces accusations of numerous violations and crimes against civilians, including killings, looting, detention, and forced displacement.

The militia maintained a tight siege on Al-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state, for months. This has severely restricted the movement of commercial convoys, leading to shortages of essential goods such as food, medicine, and fuel. North Kordofan is also experiencing a complete blackout of communications and internet services.

7. Darfur

· In the region of Darfur in western Sudan, battles are ongoing in the city of Al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur, which remains the only state in the region not to fall to the RSF militia.

· Meanwhile, there have been civilian casualties in army strikes targeting RSF supplies in parts of Darfur held by the militia.

Al-Fashir

The army and the RSF exchanged artillery and air strikes in al-Fashir as residents continued to flee the city amid the militia’s ongoing siege. Escalating military operations have triggered a mass exodus from the city, with humanitarian activists reporting that an estimated 3,000 residents fled on 12 July (Sudan Tribune, 12 July).

Army airstrikes

Sudanese military warplanes launched a series of airstrikes targeting multiple locations in Nyala, South Darfur, and Al-Geneina, West Darfur – both of which fell to the RSF in late 2023. The attacks resulted in civilian casualties. The Sudanese military claims the airstrikes are aimed at destroying military supplies allegedly being delivered to the RSF by Emirati aircraft, including: ammunition, rocket launchers, drones, and communications equipment (Sudan Tribune, 14 July).