Analysis: 4 reasons why the RSF militia is collapsing in Al-Jazira
On 11 January 2025, Sudan’s army regained control of Wad Madani - the state capital of the central Sudanese Al-Jazirah state – just over a year after it was taken by the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia. This analytical briefing looks at four key reasons for the RSF’s capitulation in Al-Jazira: infighting, a major defection, the militia’s prioritisation of western Sudan and the army’s tactical advantage.
1. Infighting
Since the RSF took control of Al-Jazirah in late 2023, the militia has been plagued with infighting. The central Sudanese state was divided between four RSF combat units: Ahmed Gojja’s forces in the north, Abu ‘Agla Keikel’s in the east, Abdelrahman Al-Bishi’s in the south and Jalha’s in the west.
However, the RSF’s reported inability to pay salaries forced its fighters to sustain themselves through spoils of war such as: looted goods, setting up checkpoints on roads or selling internet access. This resulted in competition between RSF units that frequently culminated in violent internal clashes. This will be covered in more detail in a pending report as part of Sudan In The News’ Janjabeef series that explores RSF infighting.
2. Keikel’s defection
In October 2024, RSF infighting eventually led to the defection of Abu ‘Agla Keikel, an RSF commander in Al-Jazira who was a crucial asset to militia predominantly comprising of western Sudanese nomadic tribes. As a native of the Jazira region, played a key role in the RSF’s advances in the state.
Nonetheless, as reported by Reuters, Keikel’s forces in east Al-Jazira frequently clashed with northern Jazira-based fighters loyal to Ahmed Gojja – a militia leader from the RSF’s stronghold in the Darfur region of western Sudan.
Throughout 2024, Keikel’s closest associates – who also hailed from central Sudan - were regularly targeted by RSF’s fighters from the militia’s western Sudanese base. Such incidents included, but were not limited to:
· April: The killing of Keikel’s brother over a looted vehicle.
· June: Gunfire exchanged after an RSF force moved from Khartoum to arrest Keikel’s right-hand man.
· September: RSF fighters from the Rizeigat tribe who lead the militia killed Siddig Abbas – a central Sudanese RSF leader appointed by Keikel to command a locality in Gojja’s area of control.
To avenge Keikel’s defection, the RSF embarked on a genocidal killing spree that targeted civilians that in Keikel’s area of control. Yet RSF infighting has had negative repercussions for the militia’s attempts to maintain control over Al-Jazira. With Keikel’s forces now fighting under the army, they played a key role in regaining control of Um Al-Qura locality in southeast Al-Jazira, only 40km away from Wad Madani. Keikel’s forces to the south of Wad Madani went onto disrupt the RSF’s supply routes from Khartoum, thereby accelerating the militia’s collapse.
3. RSF priorities
The RSF’s losses in Al-Jazira fits into a wider pattern of the militia’s capitulation in central Sudan, amid signs that the RSF is prioritising its siege of Al-Fashir – the last remaining of five state capitals in the Darfur region of western Sudan yet to fall to the RSF.
From October, the army regained various strategic positions in Sennar state that neighbours Al-Jazira to the south. In late September, the army also made significant advances in the capital state of Khartoum. With Sudan In The News’ military sources partly attributing the RSF’s losses in Khartoum to the militia’s increasing reliance on less trained elements, Mada Masr’s sources said the RSF in Khartoum began to resemble “mere rogue gangs” due to a significant withdrawal of RSF to Al-Fashir.
The shifting of RSF priorities away from Al-Jazira is triggering friction at all levels of the militia. Weeks before the RSF’s collapse in Wad Madani, it was reported that clashes broke out between RSF units after fighters affiliated to Jalha attempted to withdraw from the city.
Moreover, according to Sudanese media reports, the prioritisation of Al-Fashir at the expense of central Sudan is causing tensions at the top of the RSF command. The RSF’s second-in-command Abdelrahim Dagalo allegedly reneged on pledges to send fighters and equipment to Khartoum and Al-Jazira due to his focus on bringing down Al-Fashir. Dagalo reportedly said that the RSF’s failure to take Al-Fashir would result in the UAE abandoning the RSF.
The reason why Al-Fashir is a priority area for all parties involved in the war is due to its proximity to the Sudanese-Libyan-Chadian border. A crucial supply route for RSF supplies, this area can decide whether the militia’s resources are depleted across Sudan. And given that Sudan’s army is fighting a war of attrition, its strategy is the final key reason for the RSF’s collapse in Al-Jazira.
4. Army strategy
The army’s advances in Al-Jazira reflect the successful implementation of the “long breath” strategy – also known as elastic defence - which is contingent upon defensive tactics aimed at depleting the enemy and cutting off its supplies.
According to Sudan In The News’ military sources, this strategy of draining the RSF’s human and material resources was forced by the militia’s superiority in numbers, thereby making it necessary to spread the militia over a wider terrain. Doing so would isolate RSF fighters from each other.
While the withdrawal of Sudan’s army from Wad Madani in December 2023 resulted in considerable public backlash, the yielding of space and territory to the RSF also paved the way for a successful counter-offensive whereby the militia was attacked from three separate directions, giving it little chance of escape. This bore similarity to the September 2024 counter-offensives in Khartoum that left the RSF unable to challenge a synchronised military operation along several axes.
A reflection of the army’s tactical advantage of the RSF is that, as noted by Sudanese military analysts, the militia lacks tactics and strategies, and instead relies on looting and sabotaging of state facilities.
With the army now in control of the state capital of the central Sudanese Al-Jazira state, it has now opened supply lines both Khartoum as well as the RSF’s stronghold in western Sudan, leaving it poised to make further advances in the near future.
