SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: International Institute for Strategic Studies – The Gulf states and the Sudan coup – all is not what it seems
IISS-Middle East Research Associate Camille Lons argues that the Sudanese military coup is not in the interests of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the UAE and Egypt.
Given Sudan’s divided security apparatus, Lons suggests that the Gulf states are aware that the coup opens the door to “unpredictability and instability that could precipitate a civil war,” culminating in spill-over effects including: economic repercussions, refugee flows, terrorism threats and arms smuggling. If Sudan is “absorbed by internal issues,” Egypt also loses a partner in its Ethiopian dam dispute.
The Gulf states are also “highly sensitive to the reputational risks of being associated with the coup,” as they are keen to appear as “constructive and reliable partners” US regional partners.
Lons then challenges speculation that Sudanese military leaders received financial reassurance pre-coup, noting that Gulf states “face their own financial constraints and uncertain economic futures,” leaving them “restrained in their delivery of financial aid.”