SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments – “This Is Not a Coup”: The Fractures in al-Burhan’s Regime
African Arguments anonymous author argues that army commander-in-chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan’s coup is a “malfunctioning political project,” citing his inability to name government representatives, that the coup was initially rejected by rebel leaders, and that ones who supported it – Minni Minnawi and Jibril Ibrahim – face the risk of mutiny amid internal opposition to the coup.
Furthermore, al-Burhan’s political coalition consists of Islamists and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia commander Himedti, two sides who “openly insult one another”.
In addition, al-Burhan’s “suffocation” of protests through arrests rather than massacre, unveils two weaknesses within his regime.
Firstly, his fears that mass violence will lead to abandonment from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who “partially care about their image vis-à-vis Western nations”. Secondly, al-Burhan fears that mass violence will turn his own soldiers against him, as in 2019 when generals around ex-president Omar al-Bashir declined orders to carry out a massacre against civilians.