23/1/2023: International Crisis Group - A Critical Window to Bolster Sudan’s Next Government

ANALYSIS

The International Crisis Group (ICG) identified criticisms surrounding Sudan’s framework agreement.

ICG note that the rebel groups who signed Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) will “resist any attempt to dilute their hard-won gains” and thereby oppose the framework agreement as they object to language that suggests that the JPA, which promises its signatories 25% of seats in the civilian administration alongside other important concession, may be renegotiated.

Alongside worries that the framework agreement “will do little to weaken” military power or prevent another coup, ICG suggest that the “biggest and most legitimate concerns” regard the process, with the Forces of Freedom and Change coalition negotiating directly with military rather than forging consensus with the resistance committees and alienating “other important actors” including ex-rebel leaders and tribal groups with constituencies far away from Khartoum, as well as Islamists who lost power when ex-president Omar al-Bashir fell.

SOLUTIONS

The International Crisis Group (ICG) suggest ways for the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) to build support for the framework agreement.

To win over resistance committees (RC), ICG suggest the FFC can find common ground on the RC’s political charter and negotiate a “ceasefire” whereby RCs “stop campaigning against the accord, redirecting their energies toward holding signatories to account for what they have agreed to”.

To make the “Khartoum-centric” deal more inclusive, ICG call for engagement with local power brokers such as peripheral armed movement leaders and tribal chiefs. ICG also warn that excluding Islamists not affiliated with ex-president Omar al-Bashir’s regime will “nurture ready-made and well-connected opposition that retains plenty of support among conservative Sudanese.”

Finally, ICG suggest that Phase II negotiations focus on core areas of state-building including: economic reforms, establishing an independent electoral commission, credible government administration, overseeing peace processes and pursuing a national constitutional dialogue.