SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Arab Center DC - Sudan’s Political Process and Hopes for a Civilian Government
Kholood Khair, the founding director of Confluence Advisory think-tank, argued that the framework agreement (FA) hinges upon the word of military actors “who staged a violent coup in 2021” and have not curbed violence against protestors. Khair also drew attention to “opaque and exclusive methods” under which negotiations have commenced.
Khair suggests that the FA favours Rapid Support Forces commander Himedti over army chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan, before stating that a parallel track planned by Egypt – al-Burhan’s “long-time patrons” – plans to split the Forces of Freedom and Change Central Council as some of its members may be pushed to the pro-Burhan camp due to their discomfort backing Himedti.
Thus, Khair concludes, the FA has increased Himedti-Burhan tensions and “re-entrenches Sudan’s cardinal weakness” - that political settlements only create winners and losers and thus do not result in a government for all, but rather in a minority government of elite interests.”