Diplomatic Briefing:

Key events

· Gulf states: There are conflicting reports as to whether the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have suspended a $3 billion aid package to Sudan.

· The UN and Darfur: The UN Security Council is proposing a resolution to substitute its peacekeeping mission in Darfur with a peace-building mission.

· Nile politics: In a first for Nile politics, Sudan is said to be taking the side of Ethiopia.

· Sudan-US relations: Sudan’s progress in combatting terror financing and money laundering has earned praise from the US Treasury Department. US Congress has also introduced a bill that conditions debt relief on the full control of the civilian government over the finances and assets of the security and intelligence services.

· US State Sponsors of Terrorism list: A paper published by Cameron Hudson, an Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, has identified key concerns that culminate in the US’ cautiousness in removing Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list.

Proposed solutions

The solutions presented in advancing Sudanese prospects for peace, democracy and economic well-being have been directed at the UN Security Council, the US and Sudan. They can be summarised as follows:

· For Sudan: For Sudan to accelerate SST delisting, it has been called on to build state institutions and pursue confidence building measures that weaken affiliates of al-Bashir’s regime. For foreign debt relief, the government must meet US Congress transparency and governance benchmarks over the finances and assets of the security and intelligence services.

· For the UN Security Council: The UN has been called on to either extend the peacekeeping mission in Darfur, or at least gradually withdraw, as local civilians “cannot trust Sudanese security forces.”

· For the US: Alongside calls to provide economic and institutional assistance for democratic development, the US has been called on to pressure Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE to stop supporting Sudan’s security apparatus. The US has also been urged to condition SST delisting on human rights benchmarks that assert the rule of law over security forces, and impose targeted sanctions on Sudanese security members “implicated in grave violations.”

Gulf states: have Saudi Arabia and the UAE suspended aid to Sudan?

There are conflicting reports as to whether, and why, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have suspended a $3 billion aid package to Sudan.

In initial reports, Sudan Tribune (March 11) stated that KSA and the UAE had complained of public criticisms from Sudan’s governing Forces Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition. The FFC had reportedly requesting the return of Sudanese troops from Yemen, voiced opposition to UAE plans to operate Port Sudan seaport and criticised the UAE’s alleged recruitment of Sudanese youth to work in Libya as security guards.

Sudan Tribune (March 13) then reported that the US requested the suspension due to a belief that the $3 billion aid package benefits the military component of the Sudanese transitional government. However, the US Embassy in Khartoum has called on KSA and the UAE to “support the Sudanese people and the civilian-led transitional government."

To add further confusion, the UAE Ambassador to Sudan, Humaid al-Junaibi, reaffirmed the UAE’s continued support for Sudan in overcoming its financial challenges, and that the joint pledge with KSA will be fulfilled (Sudan Tribune, March 19).

2. UN: Proposed move from peacekeeping to peace-building in Darfur

AP (March 19) reported that a proposed UN Security Council resolution would replace the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) with the UN Political and Peace-building Integrated Mission in Sudan (UNPPIMS). The primary aim of UNPPIMS would

be to support Sudan’s “fragile” transition to democracy, including in drafting a new constitution and preparing for elections.

Starting May 1 for an initial period of one year, UNPPIMS is also authorised to support the implementation of any future peace agreements in Darfur, the Blue Nile and South Kordofan.

3. Nile politics: Sudan to mediate between Ethiopia and Egypt

Following a two-day meeting with Egyptian president Abdelfattah al-Sissi, Himedti, the deputy head of Sudan’s sovereign council and commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, says Sudan will mediate a deal on an escalating dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopia’s controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. Ethiopia’s plans to build the dam aims to provide much-needed electricity, but Egypt fears the project could reduce its share of the Nile, its main source of freshwater (AP, March 15).

According to Addisu Lashitew, a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, “for the first time in Nile politics,” Sudan is taking the side of the Ethiopia in the GERD dispute. With Sudan lacking a major dam on the Nile, Sudan stands to enjoy the benefits of GERD at the expense of Egyptian water supply and electricity generation (Foreign Policy, March 14).

3. Sudan-US relations

In developments concerning US-Sudan relations, Sudanese progress in combatting terror financing and money-laundering has been noted, with US Congress also introducing a bill to support the democratic transition. The Congressional bill links Sudan’s foreign debt relief to the full control of the civilian government over the finances and assets of the security and intelligence services (Sudan Tribune, March 8).

A delegation from the US Treasury Department met Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and Foreign Minister Asma Abdalla. Marshall Billingslea, the Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing at the US Treasury Department "praised Sudan’s role in combating terrorism and reaffirmed the support of the US government for the transitional period" (Sudan Tribune, March 8).

Billingsley also said that the removal of Sudan from the US list of State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) “is a matter of time,” with committees working on the case (Radio Dabanga, March 9). US officials say that while Sudan has taken important anti-laundering measures to improve the banking system and counter terror financing, further steps are needed to enhance the financial system (Sudan Tribune, March 8).

Nonetheless, Stephen Zunes, a Middle East scholar at the University of San Francisco, hints at US policy to “downplay democratic movements.” However, Zunes concedes that he lacks evidence for this claim beyond US President Donald Trump’s alleged fondness for depicting Arab/African countries as chronically violent and in need of authoritarian governments (The Nation, March 20).

4. US concerns for Sudan’s removal from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list.

Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Cameron Hudson has identified US concerns that impede Sudan’s SST delisting, with the US worrying the premature delisting may empower Sudan’s security apparatus at the expense of the civilians (Atlantic Council, 16 March).

Hudson suggests that the US is concerned that it may lose the leverage of the SST designation in deterring future bad behaviour, as it does not want to inadvertently empower the armed factions “it wants to see removed from the political scene.”

According to Hudson, the case often cited by US officials is that of Myanmar, where sanctions were lifted in 2013, only for the military to begin a “genocide against the minority Muslim Rohingya community.”

In addition, Hudson argues that Prime Minister Hamdok’s survival is crucial for US SST delisting, with the US cautious delisting might ensure that Hamdok “rapidly, and inadvertently, outlive his usefulness in the eyes of the security sector [who are believed to] not yet given up their designs on power.”

Solutions

The proposed solutions in this briefing are directed towards the UN Security Council, the US and the Sudanese government.

What can Sudan do?

I. Build state institutions: With affiliates of Omar al-Bashir’s regime still powerful, Tchie argues that Sudan is unready for SST delisting. Thus, Tchie calls for Sudan’s transitional government to focus on building state institutions that are “independent, politically impartial and able to develop policies and deliver public services.” Tchie notes Sudan’s weak institutional structures and gaps in governance throughout the country, citing al-Bashir’s National Congress Party’s ongoing influence in South Darfur (Africa Report, February 26).

II. Confidence building measures for SST list removal: Tchie identifies various confidence-building measures for Sudan to adopt in order to accelerate SST list removal including:

· The implementation of laws to combat money laundering.

· Addressing concerns around illicit trade and black market economies.

· The retrieval of billions that former regime leaders stashed offshore.

· Security sector reforms that would retire members of the old regime.

III. Governance and fiscal transparency for foreign debt relief: The US Congress Bill that authorises assistance for development programmes, supports debt relief and multilateral financing from international financial institutions, provided prerequisite governance and fiscal transparency benchmarks to be met (Sudan Tribune, March 8).

The Sudanese government must therefore:

· Establish that the security and intelligence services are no longer involved in the "illicit trade in mineral resources, including petroleum and gold".

· Identify the shareholdings in all companies held or managed by the security and intelligence services, and transfer them to a public civilian entity.

· Develop a "transparent budget that includes all expenditures related to the security and intelligence services.”

· Establish and implement a methodology to recover the state assets and profits transferred to the National Congress Party.

IV. A Nile Agreement to mediate the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute: Lashitew (Foreign Policy, March 14) presents various solutions to reduce the “bickering” between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia amid the GERD dispute. Lashitew suggests that the three:

· Stop seeking “outside support for national agendas”

· Cooperate in mitigating climate change vulnerabilities such as erratic rainfall.

· Establish Nile agreement that is part of a cooperative framework for greater regional and economic integration.

· The joint development of dams to strengthen trust, and optimise and coordinate water usage.

· Economic integration, with trade and investment incentives, to mitigate against potential hostilities if severe water shortages arise.

2. What can the UN Security Council do?

I. Extend peacekeeping in Darfur: Wibke Hansen, the lead analyst at the Center for International Peace and Volker Perthes, the director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, call on the UN Security Council to extend a residual peacekeeping presence in Jebel Marra in Darfur (World Politics Review, March 17).

Arguing that Sudan’s democratic transition requires a commitment to upholding security in Darfur, Hansen and Perthes note the sentiments of citizens of Jebel Marra region, who “underlined that [political changes in Khartoum] had not yet reached them,” as they are dealing with the same armed actors as before Omar al-Bashir’s ouster.

II. Gradual withdrawal from Darfur: AP (March 19) quoted Human Rights Watch Executive Director Kenneth Roth calling on the UN Security Council to recognise that “that Darfur requires a far more gradual withdrawal” because “civilians can’t trust Sudanese security forces alone and still look to peacekeepers for protection.”

3. What can the US do?

I. Economic and institutional assistance: Zunes calls for the US to lift sanctions from Sudan, provide sustainable development aid and democracy assistance. (The Nation, March 20).

II. Pressure KSA, the UAE and Egypt: Roth (Foreign Policy, March 20) called on the US to urge Gulf states to discontinue their support for members of Sudanese security forces. Similarly, Zunes (The Nation, March 20) called for the US to “make it very clear” to KSA, the UAE and Egypt that support for Sudanese military and autocratic elements is “unacceptable.”

III. Conditioning SST delisting: Roth argues that the overriding US aim should be to help the Sudanese people in their quest for a more transparent and accountable government based on the rule of law. Thus, Roth urged the US to condition Sudan’s delisting as a State Sponsor of Terrorism on human rights benchmarks that aim to help civilian authorities assert the rule of law over security forces, and fulfil the social and economic rights of the Sudanese people (Foreign Policy, March 20).

IV. Sanction Sudanese security forces: In addition, Roth called for the US to impose targeted individual sanctions against members of Sudanese security forces “implicated in grave violations” (Foreign Policy, March 20).