Conflict Resolution: Progress and Issues (January 2020)

Prospects for Sudanese conflict resolution in 2020 continue to be impeded by disputes among rebel groups, suspicions that al-Bashir’s deep-state is spoiling the peace process, and differences on the issue of secularism.

Nonetheless, in positive signs for Sudanese conflict resolution, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok became the first government official to visit Kauda, a rebel stronghold, since 2008. Sudan’s transitional government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement faction under the leadership of Malik Agar (SPLM-N Agar) signed a framework peace agreement.

Progress

Hamdok visits Kauda

Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok visited Kauda, stronghold of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North faction led by Abdelaziz El Hilu (SPLM-N El Hilu). The visit is historic as it has been a no-go area for Sudanese government officials since the war broke out in South Kordofan in 2011. (9 January, Radio Dabanga). According to Jerome Tubiana, the visit was a successful indication that “Hamdok had started to compete with Himedti and some officers in the military council for support in the peripheries.” (17 January, Foreign Policy)

Agreement on the root causes of conflict

In further encouraging signs for conflict resolution, Hamdok said that he agreed with Abdelaziz El-Hilu that peace negotiations must address the root causes of the conflict in South Kordofan – highlighting issues such as marginalisation, identity, governance, how to administrate Sudan, and the constitution. Furthermore, Hamdok acknowledged El-Hilu’s demands that Sudan adopts secularism, raising hopes that an understanding can be reached on “a project that unites all Sudanese.” (10 January, Sudan Tribune)

Support for el-Hilu on the secularism issue

Growing support for SPLM-N El-Hilu on the secularism issue has also come from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP),which was part of the ousted al-Bashir regime. The SPLM-N El-Hilu and DUP issued a joint statement which expressed commitment to resolving conflicts and the "need to prohibit the establishment of political parties on a religious basis, and the need to respect pluralism and cultural diversity.” (30 January, Sudan Tribune).

The end of tribal reconciliation mechanisms

In terms of settling tribal conflicts, the Sudanese government has announced that the traditional reconciliation mechanisms – such as state interference, holding tribal reconciliation conferences and paying blood money - are no longer valid. Faisal Mohamed Saleh, the Minister of Information and the government spokesman, stressed that the judiciary should hold accountable responsible for violence in peripheral regions. (9 January, Sudan Tribune).

Government peace agreement with SPLM-N Agar

Further progress towards conflict resolution came after Sudan’s transitional government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement faction under the leadership of Malik Agar (SPLM-N Agar) signed a framework peace agreement. (26 January, Multiple Sources).

The agreement includes political, security arrangements and humanitarian issues, as well as stipulating rights to legislate power, land issues, resources and power sharing. Indeed, SPLM-N Agar Deputy Leader Yasir Arman told reporters that Himedti, who signed the agreement on the government’s behalf, is “serious about peace.”

However, the agreement is not accepted by other SPLM-N factions. While SPLM-N Agar demands the right to legislate the Two Areas without Islamic legislation, it rejected the inclusion of secularism as pre-condition to conflict resolution in the negotiations, arguing that the matter is not only related to the Two Areas. Consequently, differences with SPLM-N El-Hilu have been re-ignited.

Issues

SPLM-N factions differ on secularism

SPLM-N El-Hilu said it is “not concerned” with the SPLM-Agar peace framework agreement on South Kordofan and the Blue Nile states (27 January, Sudan Tribune). SPLM-N El-Hilu, which maintains its threats to fight for self-determination unless secularism is adopted across Sudan, says the issue of secularism should be settled during the ongoing peace negotiations. By contrast, the transitional government hopes to defer the issue to a constitutional conference.

Indeed, SPLM-N El-Hilu split from the Agar faction in 2017 due to the latter’s refusal to accept the threat to fight for self-determination in SPLM-N territories unless secularism is adopted as a focal point of peace negotiations. (February 1, Sudan Tribune). Malik Agar re-iterated his rejection of El-Hilu’s stance, questioning why the people of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile alone should “pay this exorbitant bill” regarding the fight for secularism in Sudan.

Agar concedes that the demands for secularism and self-determination are “legitimate,” but says that the priority should be placed upon creating a conducive environment for nationwide negotiations of a secular state – such as conflict resolution and the peaceful return of refugees to their villages.

National Umma Party leader Sadiq al-Mahdi also re-iterated his rejection of El-Hilu’s position, telling his supporters” “someone cannot say that if you do not accept my political programme, I will not accept peace.” (13 January, Sudan Tribune).

Suspicions of interference from al-Bashir’s loyalists.

Distrust continues to pose an obstacle in the peace negotiations, as rebel groups accuse the transitional government of continuing the agenda of al-Bashir’s regime.

Peace negotiations suffered a setback after a tense exchange between the government and Minni Minnawi, a factional leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) (16 January, Sudan Tribune). Regarding the Darfur negotiations, Minnawi tweeted: "the government delegation reversed its position on all the items that were agreed upon…Unfortunately, history repeats itself shamelessly."

Minnawi went on to slam El-Hadi Idris, the leader of the Sudan Revolutionary Front, a coalition of rebel groups participating the negotiations, tweeting: “I do not know how and why [Idris] responds to my Tweets at a time when the government owns all private and public media…a new beginning of divide and rule policy".

Indeed, further worries of figures affiliated to Omar al-Bashir’s regime spoiling the peace process were reflected in several key stakeholders boycotted the eastern Sudan peace conference. (15 January, Radio Dabanga).

Hamrour Hussein, a leading member of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) in Kassala, alleged that most conference participants selected by the acting governors of the three eastern Sudanese states are native administration leaders and academics affiliated with the former regime. Ramzi Yahya, an FFC leader from El Gedarif cited acting military governors in eastern Sudan “still implementing the agenda of the former regime.”

Sudan Liberation Movement (Abdelwahid el-Nur faction) strengthens its military capacity.

According to a report by a UN panel, the Sudan Liberation Movement faction led by Abdelwahid el-Nur (SLM-AW) strengthened its military capability thanks to the significant goldfields in Torroye, a rebel-controlled area in Jebel Marra . (20 January, Sudan Tribune).

The report said that the gold-mines have funded a recruitment drive and purchase of weapons from local militias. In addition, the SLM-AW gold discovery has triggered conflict between rebels, security forces and militias, with clashes between miners and the Sudanese military in East Jebel Marra causing two deaths in September 2019.