SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: War On The Rocks - A Chance for Peace? The Impact of the Juba Peace Deal on Sudan’s Fragile Transition
Independent researcher Jean-Baptiste Gallopin analyses the impact of the Juba peace agreement.
Gallopin suggests that the deal, signed by Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) who “haven’t seriously fought the government in years,” will not bring peace as it fails to respond to the prevailing patterns of intercommunal violence in Sudan’s peripheries since the revolution.
Implementation poses a challenge amid Sudan’s economic woes, with Gallopin warning that the Ministry of Finance could be weakened if a sub-agreement reviving Darfur’s regional authority incentivises other regions to demand independent administrations.
Gallopin also warns that Sudan’s democratic prospects will fade if the deal becomes an “instrument for the ambitions of Himedti and the SRF”. With the deal weakening the civilian component of the government – which comprises of elites from the Centre - Gallopin raises the prospect of a Himedti-SRF coalition of peripheral leaders, with both parties now allowed to run for elections postponed until 2022.