SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments –“This is Not a Coup”: Democracy’s Path to Victory in Sudan
An anonymous author argues that “democracy movement’s path to victory lies in targeting [coup leader Abdulfattah] al-Burhan’s vulnerabilities,” calling for protesters to remain non-violent as the likely use of brutality “may prove his downfall,” if soldiers side with demonstrators and continued marches show the military’s foreign backers that al-Burhan is not viable.
Al-Burhan’s first weakness is the rift between mid-level army officials and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Himedti, potentially causing army soldiers to side with protesters if RSF troops conduct most of the violence against protestors.
Al-Burhan’s second weakness is the reliance on Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia, as they “have abandoned partners when they appear untenable,” and they cannot replace tens-of-billions of dollars in assistance from western nations, which may lead soldiers to support a change in military leadership amid diminishing purchasing power and exile from the population.