SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Sudan’s Reconciliation Agreement to Nowhere
With elections planned for 2024, analyst Jihad Mashamoun argues that the commander-in-chief of Sudan’s army, Abdulfattah al-Burhan, is serving his presidential ambitions by “strategically” using dialogue with the Forces of Freedom and Change.
Mashmoun suggests that al-Burhan fears that factions of the ousted ex-president Omar al-Bashir regime may launch a coup against him. Bashir-era politicians Ibrahim Ghandour, Ali Karti and Amin Hassan Omar are identified as al-Burhan’s presidential rivals, with the former regime stated to have 500,000 supporters who control the economy and state institutions, supplying them with considerable funds and organising power to win or rig elections “as they have done in the past”.
Mashmoun adds that al-Burhan faces competition from his own coalition, with finance minister Jibril Ibrahim “working to unite the former regime and [Islamist] Popular Congress Party” and Rapid Support Forces commander-in-chief Himedti “shoring up support in Darfur through the reconciliation of Arab and African tribes.”