SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Foreign Affairs – What Happens in Sudan Doesn’t Stay in Sudan
Michael Woldemariam and Alden Young argue that events in Sudan will likely determine the future of the Horn of Africa, amid the competing visions for the region between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the African Union (AU) and the East African regional bloc the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
Woldemariam and Young argue that the Sudanese military council holding power means that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will have positioned themselves as regional kingmakers capable of “forestalling democratic transitions,” as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are said to protect regional autocrats, given that public opinion in the Horn does not align with their interest in aligning Horn states into their axis.
By contrast, if the AU and IGAD can shepherd a transition to civilian government, they will lay the groundwork for a regional order “that can deliver peace, development, and accountable government.”