31/1/2023: International Crisis Group - Sudan: Rebooting an Endangered Transition

ANALYSIS

International Crisis Group (ICG) argue that while the framework agreement signed by Sudan’s military and the Forces of Freedom and Change coalition “looks very promising on paper” its implementation must “overcome significant challenges.”

ICG note that the deal has yet to gain wider buy-in from most resistance committees - neighbourhood groups that formed the core of the protests against ex-president Omar al-Bashir’s regime but that have since sparred with the FFC), alongside other civic groups and community leaders, some former armed group leaders and many political parties.

Thus, ICG warn that unless the FFC leaders make genuine efforts to forge a broader coalition with civilian groups that are critical of the framework agreement, their exclusion will affect the credibility of any final agreement and the legitimacy of the civilian government that will take power.

Without broader support, Sudan’s next government risks falling again, possibly to another coup, ICG add.

SOLUTIONS

The International Crisis Group (ICG) identify ways the EU can support the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) as it seeks to form a civilian government following the framework agreement.

With the credibility of the civilian government hinging on the extent of its acceptability to a wide range of political actors, ICG suggests that the FFC is encouraged to expand groups included in its ongoing negotiations with the military, and appeal to their interests by including their agenda items.

To prevent another military coup and the potential comeback of the former ruling Islamist National Congress Party, ICG call for the EU to financially support the civilian government so that it does not lose popular support should it fail to adequately improve the livelihoods of ordinary citizens and undermine public trust in the political transition.

ICG also propose that humanitarian relief focuses on health, food and education to provide stability.