Diplomatic Briefing: The normalisation of Sudan-Israel relations
The normalisation of Sudan-Israel relations
In Uganda, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had two hours of talks with Abdelfattah al-Burhan, head of Sudan’s sovereign council. According to Israeli officials, Sudan and Israel subsequently agreed to move towards forging normal relations for the first time. (Reuters, 3 February).
This briefing will provide background information on the meeting, the strategic interests that al-Burhan says that Sudan is pursuing, how Sudan has reacted, and analysis of whether blossoming Sudan-Israel relations will solve Sudan’s economic issues.
1) Who was behind the meeting?
According to an anonymous senior Sudanese military official the meeting was orchestrated by the United Arab Emirates and aimed at helping to remove Sudan’s state sponsor of terrorism designation. The official added that only a “small circle” of top officials in Sudan, as well as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, knew about the meeting. (AP, 3 February).
Indeed, the Sudanese information minister and government spokesperson, Faisal Salih, told Reuters (3 February) he had no information about the visit. However, al-Burhan told the Arabic media that Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has notified ahead of the meeting. (Bloomberg, February 5).
The Forces of Freedom and Change released a statement saying it was not consulted ahead of the meeting, but a change in Sudan’s position on Israel is the Sudanese people’s decision. (AP, 4 February).
2) Why was the meeting held?
Blossoming relations between the countries are said to be in the Sudanese national interest. (Bloomberg, 3 February). Recognising Israel, a key US ally, could help Sudan’s campaign to persuade Washington to remove it from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. Consequently, the US invited al-Burhan to visit Washington, with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praising al-Burhan “for his leadership in normalising ties with Israel.” (Reuters, 2 February).
Indeed, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) spokesman Brigadier Amer Mohammed al-Hassan said the motive in seeking to normalise relations with Israel is to end Sudan’s status as an international pariah state. Al-Hassan quoted al-Burhan to tell Sudanese newspaper editors that Sudan’s economic pressures require “bold decisions that shift Sudan’s domestic and foreign policy.” (AP, February 5).
3) The reactions
The meeting has “stirred controversy” in Sudan. Despite some sections of Sudanese social media arguing that blossoming relations with Israel are in the Sudanese interest, others denounced al-Burhan’s alleged attempts “get on the [US President Donald] Trump administration’s good side through Israel.” (AP, 4 February).
The meeting also sparked protests outside Sudanese government headquarters. Tarek Babakir, a protester, told Reuters (4 February) that: “the betrayal that was represented in the meeting with the head of the Zionist entity, is a dagger in the heart of the Sudanese people.”
Key Sudanese political stakeholders also denounced the meeting. Sadiq al-Mahdi, leader of the National Umma Party, said the meeting “crossed a red line,” and that Netanyahu’s “racist” policies contradict “just and comprehensive” regional peace. The Sudanese Communist Party also denounced the meeting, as “treason” against the Palestinians. (AP, 4 February).
The Sudanese Professionals Association said that normalisation with Israel was a serious decision that should not be taken by a transitional government (Bloomberg, February 5). The FFC said that it stands by Palestinian rights to an independent state. (AP, 4 February). The Sudanese cabinet then held meetings with the Forces of Freedom and Change leaders, with the latter accusing al-Burhan of breaching Sudan’s constitutional declaration. (Reuters, 4 February).
However, Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council think-tank, said the meeting suggests that al-Burhan and the military “willing to put their reputation on the line” in their commitment to the survivability of the government.” (AP, 4 February).
4) Will improved relations with Israel solve Sudan’s economic issues?
Arguments that Sudan’s relations with Israel would facilitate Sudan’s removal from the US State Sponsor of Terrorism list, and thereby secure an economic lifeline, can be disputed by the notion that Sudan’s economic issues are not primarily caused by its designation as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Tibor Nagy, the US Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of African Affairs, said the primary cause of Sudan’s financial struggles is debts to international financial institutions. (28 January, Radio Dabanga). Similarly, Hilary Mossberg and John Prendergast also attribute Sudan’s inability to secure debt relief to its pre-existing debts to the IMF and World Bank. (The Sentry, 29 January).
Mossberg and Prendergast argue that foreign investment is inhibited by corruption and deep-state’s monopoly in the banking and gold sectors. Therefore, to facilitate Sudan’s economic recovery, Mossberg and Prendergast call for the Sudanese government to enforce anti-money laundering laws and generate transparency across the economy, as well as imposing targeted targeted sanctions on the security sector to prevent it from spoiling economic and democratic reforms.